经济学人下载:熊彼特专栏--LVMH对决爱马仕(4)

The stolid approach has paid off in the pandemic. Sales will probably drop this year because of store and factory closures in the spring. But Hermes looks in better shape than its competitors, says Luca Solca of Bernstein, a broker. It is less reliant than they are on Asian tourists shopping in Paris or New York. It makes most of its wares itself, so does not need to bail out third-party suppliers. Demand wobbles are less of a problem given those long waiting lists. And if well-heeled consumers are to spend in a recession, they favour timeless brands. 

这种固执的做派在疫情期间得到了回报。由于春季商店和工厂的关闭，今年的销售额可能会下降。但经纪公司伯恩斯坦的卢卡•索尔卡表示，爱马仕的状况看起来比竞争对手要好。爱马仕对那些在巴黎或纽约购物的亚洲游客的依赖程度更低。它的大部分商品都是自己生产的，因此不需要救济第三方供应商。考虑到长长的等待购买名单，需求波动也不是什么问题了。如果富裕的消费者们要在经济衰退中消费，他们往往青睐永恒的品牌。

For success to endure, Hermes heirs may require one more thing. The company is a digital laggard. A mere 2 to 3% of its sales last year came from its website, half its rivals’ share. Its Instagram account— a measure of a brand’s buzziness—has just 10m followers, compared with 41m for Chanel or Gucci. It lacks younger consumers who inject brands with vitality; according to Citigroup, a bank, only a quarter of sales are to Gen-Zs or millennials (the oldest of whom are about to turn 40). 

要想获得持久的成功，爱马仕的继承人们可能还需要做一件事。爱马仕在数字技术方面相对落后。去年，爱马仕仅有2-3%的销售额来自网站，是竞争对手的一半。它的Instagram账户（用于衡量品牌热度）只有1000万粉丝，相比之下香奈儿或古驰都有4100万粉丝。爱马仕缺少为品牌注入活力的年轻消费者。根据花旗集团的数据，爱马仕只有四分之一的销售额来自95后或千禧一代（其中年龄最大的人即将满40岁）。

Mr Dumas is alive to this. Hermes has started to branch out into cosmetics, offering aspiring shoppers a cheaper entry point than Birkins (or skateboards). It has invested in a Chinese venture, Shang Xia, that may be useful if consumers in China—big buyers of luxury goods—start coveting local baubles instead of French ones. 

杜马斯对此有所察觉。爱马仕已经开始进军化妆品领域，为有所渴求的消费者提供比铂金包（或陶瓷滑板）更便宜的入门产品。它投资了一家名为“上下”的中国企业，如果中国的奢侈品大买家开始垂涎本地小玩意而不是法国货，这笔投资可能会派上用场。

Such moves are not so different from Mr Arnault’s. He might have executed the same savvy strategy at Hermes; LVMH executives still speak of the “brand that got away” with reverence. But the Hermes clan can draw satisfaction from the fact that their investment in the family firm has yielded returns of over 400% since 2010— even juicier than if they had traded their stakes for LVMH shares. 

这样的举动与阿尔诺的做法没有太大差别。他可能也会在爱马仕采取同样的精明策略；LVMH的高管们仍然心怀崇敬地谈论这个“逃脱的品牌”。但是爱马仕家族还是心满意足，因为自2010年以来，他们对家族企业的投资回报率超过400%。这甚至比他们用所持股份换取LVMH股份的收益还要高。