经济学人下载:马云被约谈,蚂蚁暂缓上市(2)

On November 2nd the Chinese central bank and banking regulator published new draft rules for online micro-lending, which looked almost perfectly tailored to undercut Ant. Online lenders will need to fund at least 30% of any loan they supply jointly with banks. That could force Ant to keep much more of the credit that it originates on its books; currently, 98% is held as assets by other firms, off Ant's balance-sheet. Additional disclosure requirements could also make it much more cumbersome for banks to partner with the group. Officials at China's banking regulator have already pressed commercial lenders to adhere to the new rules, according to Bloomberg, in effect making many of Ant's transactions non-compliant. 

11月2日，中国央行和银行监管机构发布了网上小额贷款的新规则草案，看起来几乎是为打击蚂蚁金服而量身定做的。在线贷款机构与银行共同提供的贷款中，至少有30%需要融资，这可能迫使蚂蚁保留更多源自其账簿的信贷。目前，其中98%被其他公司作为资产持有，不在蚂蚁金服的资产负债表内。额外的信息披露要求也可能使银行与该集团的合作变得更加麻烦。据彭博社报道，中国银行业监管机构的官员已经向商业银行施压，要求它们遵守新规定，这实际上使得蚂蚁金服的许多交易有悖规定。

Depending on how the rules are implemented—they will not be finalised until December—Ant's capital-light model could end up looking much less sleek. "It will be valued more like a financial firm than a tech firm," said a strategist with an Asian sovereign-wealth fund. Given Ant's track record, it seems a fair bet that it will quickly adapt to the new rules, but its credit operations are likely to face much slower growth and lower profitability. 

取决于这些规则如何实施——它们要到12月才会最终敲定——蚂蚁金服的“轻资本”模式可能会看起来不那么光鲜。一家亚洲主权财富基金的策略师表示：“它的估值将更像是一家金融公司而不是科技公司。”鉴于蚂蚁金服的过往记录，它似乎会迅速适应新规则，但其信贷业务可能面临增长放缓和盈利能力下降。

Investors had previously given Ant a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 40, in line with big global payments companies. Most Chinese banks, in contrast, trade on multiples of less than ten. Ant had been on track for a Market capitalisation north of $300bn, higher than any bank in the world. Now it is likely to fall well short of that. Shares in Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant that owns a third of Ant, tumbled by 8% after the suspension of the listing was announced. 

投资者此前给蚂蚁金服的预期市盈率为40倍，与大型全球支付公司相仿。相比之下，多数中国银行的市盈率不到10倍。此前，蚂蚁金服的市值有望突破3000亿美元，高于世界上任何一家银行。现在，它很有可能离这个目标渐行渐远。拥有蚂蚁三分之一股份的中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴，在暂缓上市的消息公布后股价下跌了8%。

Some investors may at least be grateful to regulators for introducing the new rules before the IPO, however late in the process, allowing them to reprice Ant before they buy its shares. But it is not as if the IPO came as a surprise or the company was an unknown entity; regulators could have acted far earlier. The possibility that they were motivated by a grudge against Mr Ma, and perhaps irritated by his recent speech, cannot be ruled out. 

一些投资者可能至少会感谢监管机构在IPO之前就出台了新规定，这允许他们在购买蚂蚁金服股票之前对其重新定价。但这次IPO并不出人意料，也不是什么未知的实体。监管机构本可以在很久前采取行动，不排除他们是出于对马的怨恨，亦或是被他最近的演讲激怒的可能。

Ant had gone to great lengths to brand itself as a tech firm, not a bank. It describes its business as "techfin"—ie, putting technology first—not fintech. In the lead-up to its listing, it asked brokerages to assign tech analysts, not just banking analysts, to cover it. Ultimately, though, its focus has always been on China's financial sector. That is the industry ripe for disruption, and where the money is. But as Ant and legions of investors have been reminded, that is also where the regulators lurk. 

蚂蚁金服费尽心思把自己打造成一家科技公司，而不是一家银行。它将自己的业务描述为“科技金融”——即把科技放在首位——而不是“金融科技”。在上市前，该公司曾要求券商指派科技分析师、而不仅仅是银行业分析师来对它进行报道。不过，归根结底，它的重点一直都在中国的金融领域。这就是颠覆这个行业的时机，也是赚钱的地方。但正如蚂蚁金服和大批投资者被提醒的那样，这也是监管机构潜伏的地方。