经济学人下载:特朗普拒不承认败选,美国危矣(1)

United States 

美国版块

The White House 

白宫

To the bitter end 

奋战到底

President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede is harming America 

总统唐纳德·特朗福拒不承认败选，美国危矣

“Stop the steal” has become the anthem of outraged Republicans who believe President Donald Trump’s claims that Democrats stole his re-election by committing massive voter fraud. It is the hashtag they rally around online and the slogan they chant when they throng in the streets, as they did on November 14th in Washington, DC, earning a laudatory drive-by from the presidential motorcade. 

“停止窃取”已然成为愤怒的共和党团体的团歌，他们坚信着美国总统特朗普所谓的民主党人通过大规模的选民欺诈行为窃取选举果实以至未能连任的说法。他们一边在网上集体声援“停止窃取”的推文话题，一边涌上街头高喊“停止窃取”的口号。11月14日，这些共和党人也曾经在华盛顿特区进行过类似的游行，当时还获得了总统车队的大加赞扬。

But this is not the first time surrogates of Mr Trump have deployed it. Roger Stone, a former adviser to the president who recently had his prison sentence for several convictions commuted, actually founded a group by that name in April 2016—then to expose Senator Ted Cruz’s purported plot to steal the Republican nomination. Similar pre-emptive claims of voter fraud were made before the general-election contest with Hillary Clinton in 2016. Now that Mr Trump has actually lost, the slogan has finally been deployed in earnest. 

但这并不是特朗普的代理人第一次部署相关活动。罗杰·斯通是前任总统顾问，他曾因几项罪名被判入狱，最近获得了减刑。斯通实际上在2016年4月成立了一个以“停止窃取”为名的组织，随后揭露了参议员特德·科鲁兹所谓的窃取共和党提名的阴谋。在2016年与希拉里·克林顿的大选角逐之前，特朗普阵营也曾提出过类似的先发制人的选民舞弊指控。现在特朗普实际上已经输了，其团队也终于郑重地部署这一口号。

Mr Trump has a long-held aversion to admitting defeat, or really conceding any fault at all. That is now throwing up an uNPRecedented scenario: an incumbent American president refusing to hand over power due to baseless claims of electoral fraud. It is a serious democratic norm to trample over—one easy to underplay because of public confidence that other institutions, like the courts and the military, will not accede to Mr Trump’s wishes. The chances of a reversed decision are low. The lawsuits filed in the swing states that Mr Trump lost are floundering. Despite Mr Trump’s recent replacement of civilian leadership at the Department of Defence, there is little risk of a self-coup. 

长期以来，特朗普一直不愿意承认败选，也根本不愿意真的承认任何错误。如今，这引发了一个史无前例的局面：一位现任美国总统由于选举舞弊的无根据指控而拒绝移交权力。这是对美国严肃的民主规范（容易被低估）的践踏，因为公众相信法院、军方等机构不会同意特朗普的个人意愿。这些机构不太可能改变决定。特朗普在输掉的摇摆州发起诉讼，妄图挣扎。尽管特朗普最近更换了国防部的文职领导结构，但发生自我政变的风险很低。

Even if this low-energy autogolpe does not succeed, Mr Trump’s actions are still alarming. Presidential transitions involve a large number of civil servants: some 4,000, are politically appointed, with 1,200 requiring confirmation by the Senate. By not conceding, Mr Trump has stalled this process. Mr Biden is not receiving his classified presidential daily briefings. His team does not have access to secure governmental communications, relying instead on encrypted messaging apps. The commission to study the 9/11 attacks found that the shortened transition in 2000, caused by the disputed result in Florida, may have contributed to American vulnerability to terrorist attacks. By contrast, the wellmanaged transition between George W. Bush and Barack Obama in the midst of the global financial crisis enabled faster implementation of economic relief. Asked what was at stake this time, Mr Biden said “more people may die” if the Trump administration refused to co-ordinate on virus suppression and vaccine distribution. 

尽管这场低能耗的“自我政变”没有成功，特朗普的行动依然令人担忧。总统过渡牵涉大量公职人员：近4千名公职人员通过政府任命，其中约1200名公职人员需要得到参议院批准通过。特朗普通过拒绝承认败选以阻碍这一交接进程。拜登未曾收到总统每日机密简报。他的团队无法与外国政府进行安全通信，而是要依靠加密的消息应用程序。对911袭击事件进行研究的委员会发现，2000年佛罗里达州选票结果争议引发的过渡期缩短，可能是恐怖袭击趁虚而入的罪魁祸首。相比之下，小布什与巴拉克·奥巴马在经济危机中进行管理良好的过渡使经济救济得以更快实施。当被问及这次的利害关系时，拜登表示，如果特朗普政府拒绝在病毒抑制和疫苗分发方面进行协调，“可能会有更多人死亡”。