经济学人下载:拜拜美国(2)

The price tag on BBVA's American franchise amounts to about 30 times its projected earnings in 2021, according to analysts at UBS, a bank. That is a lot for a unit that has long underperformed, posting returns on equity of around 6-7% (BBVA's Mexican arm, which is comparable in terms of risk-weighted assets, routinely produces returns of 20% or more). But PNC has demonstrated a knack for turning round ailing ventures, notably the American arm of RBC, a Canadian bank, which it snapped up in 2012. Investors seem confi- dent PNC can repeat the trick: the bank's share price rose by 3% on the day the deal was announced. 

据瑞士联合银行(UBS)的分析师称，BBVA在美国的特许经营费用大约是其2021年预期收益的30倍。对于一个长期表现不佳的部门来说这是一个不小的数字，其净资产收益率约为6-7%(BBVA的墨西哥分支，其风险加权资产可与之比较，通常回报率为20%或更高)。但PNC已经展示了其扭转风险的能力，尤其是在2012年收购的加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的美国分部。投资者似乎确信PNC可以再一次上演这个把戏：该银行的股价在交易宣布当天上涨了3%。

BBVA's investors were even more enthusiastic. Its share price jumped by 20% on the day. Britta Schmidt of Autonomous, a research firm, estimates the net value gained at about 8bn Euros($9.5bn), or 40% of the bank's market capitalisation. The sale will shore up its core-capital ratio by nearly three percentage points, to 14.5%, well above the level demanded by regulators. 

BBVA的投资者甚至更加热情，它的股价当天上涨了20%。一家名为Autonomous的研究公司的布里塔·施密特估计，该公司的净资产收益约为80亿欧元(95亿美元)，相当于该银行市值的40%。此次出售将使其核心资本比率提高近3个百分点，达到14.5%，远高于监管机构要求的水平。

A chunk of the bounty may go towards acquisitions closer to home, fuelling a long-awaited wave of consolidation in Europe's overbanked markets. BBVA's American exit makes its portfolio disproportionately exposed to emerging markets, giving it a reason to invest at home. It may also help that, since July, the European Central Bank has encouraged banks to recognise an accounting gain, known as negative goodwill, which they generate when they buy a rival at a lower price than the book value of its assets. Such "badwill", in turn, can be used to offset restructuring charges. Investors seem to believe that BBVA's talks with Sabadell will succeed: Sabadell's share price jumped by 16% on the PNC news, and a further 9% after PNC and BBVA said that due diligence had begun. 

这笔收入的绝大部分可能会流向更靠近本土的收购，从而在银行过度扩张的欧洲市场掀起一波期待已久的整合浪潮。BBVA退出美国市场使其投资组合不成比例地暴露在新兴市场，这给了它在国内投资的理由。自7月以来，欧洲央行(ECB)鼓励各银行承认一种名为“负商誉”的会计收益(银行以低于其资产账面价值的价格收购竞争对手时产生的收益)，这或许也起到一定作用。反过来，这种“不良意愿”可以用来抵消重组费用。投资者似乎相信BBVA与Sabadell的谈判将会成功：在PNC的消息传出后，Sabadell的股价上涨了16%，而在PNC和BBVA表示尽职调查已经开始后，Sabadell的股价又上涨了9%。

Transatlantic divestitures, meanwhile, will probably continue. European banks operating in America should either go big or give up, says Adrian Cighi of Credit Suisse, a bank. Analysts expect HSBC, Europe's largest bank by assets, to signal a partial exit when it releases its results in February. Santander and BNP Paribas, the other European banks with a big American presence, say they do not want to sell. The PNC deal, however, may make shareholders think focus is not such a bad idea. 

与此同时，跨大西洋的资产剥离可能会继续下去。瑞士信贷银行的艾德里安·奇吉表示，在美国经营的欧洲银行要么做大要么放弃。分析师预计，欧洲资产规模最大的银行汇丰(HSBC)将在2月份公布业绩时发出部分退出的信号。桑坦德银行(Santander)和法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)是另外两家在美国拥有大量业务的欧洲银行，它们表示不想出售。然而，PNC交易可能会让股东认为“专注”并不是一个坏主意。