经济学人下载:美国陷经济寒冬,春天还有多远?(3)

But now even people in the most pro- Republican areas appear to be getting skittish, too. In the week before Thanksgiving attendance at South Dakotan recreationand- retail was 8% lower than normal. The continued increase in coronavirus cases may partially explain this, but a rise in death rates may be more significant. Research by Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, both of the University of Chicago, finds that local deaths from coronavirus have a big impact on a local economy, perhaps because they bring home the seriousness of the situation. Deaths lag behind cases, and the share of American counties with at least one death from coronavirus in the previous week is soaring. Surveys suggest that a growing share of people worry about catching the virus. 

但现在，即使是最倾向共和党的地区的美国民众似乎也变得不安了。感恩节前一周，南达科他州娱乐和零售店的游客人数比平时低了8%。冠状病毒病例的持续增加可能部分地解释了这一点，但死亡率的上升可能是更为重要的因素。芝加哥大学的奥斯坦·古尔斯比和查德·西弗森的研究发现，当地的冠状病毒死亡人数对当地经济有很大影响，也许是因为死亡让人们认识到了形势的严峻。死亡人数落后于病例数，而前一周至少有一例冠状病毒死亡病例的美国郡县所占比例正在飙升。调查显示，越来越多美国民众担心感染病毒。

The economy will rise again once a vaccine becomes available. Roughly 40% of the country should be vaccinated by March, suggests a recent paper by Goldman Sachs, a bank, putting America behind only Britain in terms of the speed of the rollout. And the vaccine-induced boost could be bigger than many expect. So far the pandemic has left surprisingly few scars on America’s economy. Business bankruptcies and the number of people in long-term unemployment remain lower than during the financial crisis of 2007 to 09. 

一旦疫苗问世，美国经济将再次复苏。高盛银行最近发表的一篇论文指出，美国大约40%的人口应该在3月前接种疫苗，在推广速度上，美国仅次于英国。而且疫苗引起的经济刺激可能比许多人预期的要大。到目前为止，这场大流行给美国经济留下的伤疤出人意料地少之又少。企业破产和长期失业人数仍低于2007-09年金融危机期间。

Until then there will be further drags on the economy. Two further provisions related to UI, one which expanded eligibility to include the self-employed and gig workers, and one which provided extra weeks of benefits for recipients, are due to expire at the end of the year. A number of emergency lending programmes are also likely to end at that time. And the pandemic remains out of control. America, and especially its poorest folk, face a tough winter. 

在此之前，美国经济将进一步受到拖累。另外两项与失业救济有关的规定将于年底到期，其中一项放宽了资格范围，将个体户和临时工作人员包括在内，另一项规定为受益人提供额外几周的补助金。一些紧急贷款方案也可能在那时结束。新冠大流行仍然无法控制。美国，尤其是最贫穷的美国人民，面临着一个艰难的寒冬。