经济学人下载:特朗普一着不慎,共和党满盘皆输?(1)

United States 

美国版块

Georgia’s run-off elections 

佐治亚州决选

So sweet and clear 

畅快且清晰

Two stunning victories for Democrats in Georgia upend the Senate

民主党在佐治亚州取得的两次惊人的胜利颠覆了参议院

Four years ago, any pundit predicting that the solidly Republican state of Georgia would send two Democratic senators to Washington in 2020 would have been dismissed as a crank. Yet that was the outcome of two extraordinary run-off elections held on January 5th, which may set a new model for winning Democratic campaigns in the usually inhospitable South. The contests were also the costliest Senate races ever—more than $500m was spent on a deluge of advertising alone—because they will determine control of the Senate for the next two years. 

在四年前，要是有任何权威预言预测坚定倾向共和党的佐治亚州会在2020年将两名民主党参议员推送到华盛顿，那人们将不予理会，还会觉得这样的预言十分古怪。而1月5日举行的两次非同寻常的决选结果却正是如此，这可能为民主党在通常不讨好的美国南部赢得竞选树立了一个新的模式。这两次竞选也是有史以来最昂贵的参议院竞选，仅广告费就高达5亿美元，因为这两次竞选将决定未来两年参议院的控制权。

Raphael Warnock, the first African- American ever to be elected to the Senate from the South, defeated Kelly Loeffler, the Republican incumbent. The other Democrat, Jon Ossoff, defeated Senator David Perdue, meaning the Senate will be tied at 50-50, giving the vice-president-elect, Kamala Harris, the casting vote in the upper chamber. Democrats will thus have secured the Washington trifecta of House, Senate and White House needed to pass legislation. For the incoming president, Joe Biden, this means a chance to convert at least some of his ambitious agenda from a pile of white papers into reality. For the outgoing president, Donald Trump, it is a startling rebuke. 

拉斐尔·沃诺克是有史以来首位担任南方参议员的非裔美国人，他击败了现任共和党参议员凯利·洛弗勒。另一位获胜的民主党人是乔恩·奥索夫，他击败了参议员大卫·珀杜，这意味着参议院的两党席位将是50比50，从而使当选副总统卡马拉·哈里斯获得参议院决定性的一票。因此，民主党人将获得通过立法所需的华盛顿三大利器——众议院、参议院和白宫。对于即将上任的美国当选总统乔·拜登来说，这意味着至少有机会将他雄心勃勃的议程从一堆白皮书变成现实。对于即将卸任的总统唐纳德·特朗普来说，这是一次惊人的指责。

Though the elections’ national ramifications may take most headlines, the contests also reflect Georgia’s idiosyncrasies. The state is unique in requiring a head-to-head run-off if no candidate commands a majority in the general election. On November 3rd Mr Perdue secured a greater share of votes than did Mr Trump, who lost the state by a razor-thin margin. The president has since been consumed with attempts to overturn that result through recounts, lawsuits and, most disturbingly, direct pressure on Georgia’s top elections officer to “find” the necessary votes to steal the election. 

尽管参议院选举的全国性影响可能占据大多数头条新闻，但这两次竞选也反映了佐治亚州的特质。佐治亚州拥有独特的规定，即如果没有候选人在普选中获得多数票，该州就要求进行正面决选。11月3日，珀杜先生在参议院选举中获得更多选票，而特朗普在总统竞选中以微弱的劣势失去了佐治亚州。此后，总统一直在试图通过种种方式推翻选举结果，包括重新计票、诉讼，以及直接向佐治亚州最高选举官员施压，要求他们“找到”必要的选票来窃取选举这样最令人不安的途径。

Run-offs typically favour Republicans: they tend to be snoozy events that attract only the most committed voters (older, whiter and typically more conservative). That did not happen this time. Turnout was estimated to be 4.5m, or 89% of the recordsetting tally in November. It was high enough in the right places to suggest a Democratic finish ahead of Mr Biden’s. 

决选通常有利于共和党人。决选往往很懒散，只会吸引最坚定的选民参与（年龄更大，白人居多，通常更保守）。但这次情况截然不同。据估计，投票人数为450万，占11月份竞选投票人数的89%，创下纪录。投票人数高到足以表明民主党在佐治亚州的竞选结果甚至要领先于拜登。