经济学人下载:特朗普一着不慎,共和党满盘皆输?(3)

Whether the disappointment of the run-offs will prompt a wider Republican break from Mr Trump is unclear. Many thought that defeat in November would break his ironclad hold over the party. Not at all. Both of the incumbent Republican senators in the run-off called for the resignation of the Republican secretary of state who oversees the election for failing to endorse Mr Trump’s view of the world (which is that it is impossible for him to lose an election without unspecified masses of fraud occurring). They also expressed support for Republicans refusing to certify the results of the presidential election. 

对参议院决选的失望是否会促使共和党更广泛地脱离特朗普，目前尚不清楚。许多人认为11月的失败会打破特朗普对共和党的顽固控制。但却根本没有。两位现任共和党参议员在决选中都要求负责监督选举的共和党州务卿辞职，因为他并不认可特朗普的世界观（即存在大量不明的选举舞弊行为，否则自己不可能败选）。这两位现任共和党参议员还支持共和党拒绝认证总统选举结果。

Mr Trump’s antics left both Republican senators in an impossible position—reliant on the flailing, departing president for his devoted voters, and unwilling and unable to cross him even as he descended into dark, anti-democratic fantasies. This tied Republican voters, most of whom say they believe the president’s theories about voter fraud, in chains of illogic. Why turn out to vote in a state that Mr Trump says was hopelessly crippled by fraud just two months ago? If the state’s Republican governor and secretary of state could not be trusted to safeguard the last election, why bother with this one? Why was the battle cry of the Republicans’ Senate run-off campaign to keep socialism at bay if Mr Trump (not Mr Biden) was to be president? Whether Mr Trump so demotivated Republican voters as to have sabotaged an expected victory for his party is hard to know in a race that is so close.

特朗普的荒唐行为让这两位共和党参议员都陷入了进退维谷的的境地，他们依靠这位一直挣扎却还是即将离任的总统来获得其忠诚的选民支持，甚至在特朗普陷入黑暗、反民主的幻想中时，他们也不愿意、也无法与他作对。这就让所有的共和党选民成了一根绳上的蚂蚱，即使不合乎逻辑，他们大多数人还是声称他们相信总统的选民欺诈论。特朗普表示，两个月前，佐治亚州还因欺诈行为而陷入无望的困境，那为什么还要在这个州投票呢？如果佐治亚州的共和党州长和州务卿无法信任，他们没有维护上次选举，那为什么还要让他们操心这次选举呢？如果特朗普（而不是拜登）要当总统，为什么共和党参议院决选的口号是阻止社会主义？在这场势均力敌的竞选中，是否是特朗普削弱了共和党选民的积极性，以致于破坏了共和党的预期胜利，目前还很难说。

For Mr Biden, however, the prize is immense. “Georgia, the whole nation is looking at you,” he told a drive-in rally in Atlanta on the eve of the poll. “One state can chart the course not just for the next four years, but for the next generation,” he went on. With the Senate in effect under Democratic control, Mr Biden will have a much easier and speedier time in getting his nominations for the cabinet and federal courts confirmed. He will not have the filibuster- proof majority required to pass the sort of agenda that he campaigned on. But the Senate will pick up legislation passed by the Democratically-controlled House. Conservative Democratic senators like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona will wield disproportionate power. But to the new White House they will be much more welcome negotiating partners than Mr McConnell. The stakes in Georgia were always much larger than one state. 

然而，拜登却得到了巨大的战利品。投票前夕，拜登在亚特兰大的汽车拉力赛集会上说，“佐治亚州，整个美国都在关注着你。”他接着说：“佐治亚州不仅可以规划未来四年的发展方向，还可以为下一代规划路线。”由于参议院实际上处于民主党的控制之下，拜登将更容易且更快地确认内阁和联邦法院提名。拜登将不会获得议案通过权，而这是使他竞选时提出的那种议程获得通过所必须的。但参议院将接受民主党控制的众议院通过的立法。像西弗吉尼亚州的乔·曼钦和亚利桑那州的吉尔斯滕·辛内马这样的保守派民主党参议员将执掌大权。但对于新的白宫来说，相比麦康奈尔那样的谈判伙伴，这些保守派民主党参议员要更受欢迎。佐治亚州的利害关系总是比一个国家大得多。