经济学人下载:中国做大金融开放蛋糕,不再担心"狼来了"(1)

China's financial opening 

中国的金融开放

Over the great wall 

跨越长城

Chinese markets shake off their casino reputation. Can foreigners actually win? 

中国市场摆脱“赌场”之名。外国人真能赢吗？

In a world where internet memes can explain market swings, China is second to none. Early in March, with mainland equities down by 15% in two weeks—their steepest fall in years—a video circulated on Weibo, a microblogging site, of a sheep stuck in a fence on a hill and a hiker climbing up to free it. The description of the video, in its meme incarnation, was "the national team comes to rescue me". The national team is shorthand for big state firms that are believed to stabilise the market by buying shares when they plunge. 

说到用网络热梗来呈现市场波动，中国的本领可谓首屈一指。3月初，中国大陆股市在两周内下跌了15％，创下近年最大跌幅，这时一段视频开始在微博上流传——一只羊被困在山坡上的围栏里，一个登山者爬上去解救它。视频的标题“国家队来救我了”套用了一个热梗。“国家队”指的是人们认为会在股市暴跌时买入股票以稳定市场的大型国企。

This video, though, had a twist. The hiker frees the sheep, only for it to lose its footing and tumble down the hill. Talk of the national team's rescue mission had spread for a few days, but equities continued to tumble, wiping out all gains made since late last year. 

然而这段视频还有反转。登山者把卡住的羊拉出后，它却失足滚下了山。有关国家队出手救市的消息传了好几天，但股市继续暴跌，抹掉了自去年年底以来的所有涨幅。

At last, on March 9th, the national team really did arrive. State media reported that large state-owned insurers had bought stocks. Coincidentally or not, that heralded the market bottom. For casual observers of Chinese finance it all fit a familiar pattern: stocks careening from boom to bust, propelled by day traders and rumours, and the government eventually restoring calm. 

终于，3月9日这天国家队真的进场了。官媒报道称国有大型保险公司已经入市。不知是不是巧合，市场似乎开始触底反弹。在对中国的金融市场多少有些了解的人看来，一切都还是同一个套路：在日内交易者和谣言的推动下，股市先飙升，再暴跌，最终政府出手稳定市场

But to those inside the market, the story was in fact more novel. The decline in Chinese shares neatly paralleled the decline in the NASDAQ, America's tech-heavy stock index. Guan Qingyou, a prominent Chinese economist, argued that the underlying trigger was nervousness about inflation in America. A resulting jump in American bond yields had sparked risk aversion globally and hit China hard. Foreign investors, who had helped fuel China's equity rally last year, retreated. Reacting to the same signals, big domestic fund managers also rushed to pare their holdings. 

但对于身处其中的人来说，这次波动实则有更多新鲜之处。中国股市的这波跌势紧随美国科技股指数纳斯达克的下跌。中国著名经济学家管清友认为，深层触发因素是对美国通胀的忧虑。美债收益率因此攀升，点燃了全球的避险情绪，给中国股市带来沉重打击。去年曾助推中国股市上涨的外国投资者纷纷撤退。国内大型基金经理也对同样的信号做出反应，竞相减仓。

The sell-off, in other words, furnished evidence about two important areas of progress in China's capital markets: they are both more professional and more interwoven with global finance than before. At the same time, incessant talk about the national team was a reminder of the idiosyncrasies of finance in a state-dominated economy—idiosyncrasies that matter ever more to the rest of the world. 

换句话说，这波抛售证明了中国资本市场有两个重大进步：相比以往，它们变得更专业，与全球金融市场也更紧密地交织在一起。同时，人们对“国家队”的心心念念也显示出这个国家主导型经济里的金融市场有其特异性——这些特性对世界其他地区变得越来越重要。

Just five years ago no analysis of finance in China was complete without a detailed look at shadow banking. Formal banks were too strictly controlled to satisfy borrowing needs in the fast-growing economy. Stock and bond markets were underdeveloped. So between the cracks, lightly regulated institutions cropped up, willing to lend to anyone with collateral—especially property developers and miners. 

仅仅在五年前，全面分析中国金融市场还少不了要仔细考察影子银行。正规银行受到严格管控，无法满足快速增长的经济对借贷的需求。股票和债券市场也不发达。于是，从夹缝中滋生出一些受到较少监管的金融机构，它们愿意向任何有抵押品的人放贷，尤其是房地产开发商和矿业公司。