经济学人下载:中国做大金融开放蛋糕,不再担心"狼来了"(5)

The pessimistic view is that China is, and always will be, the market of the future. The head of a foreign bank in Shanghai describes China's regulatory demands as a "purity test". To obtain licences to operate, banks must have teams of underwriters and risk officers in place, all with the right qualifications. That drives up staffing costs before any revenue is earned. Vanguard, an American asset manager, recently halted plans to launch its own mutual-fund unit in China, citing the time it would take to build up a big presence. 

悲观的看法是，中国现在是，以后也一直会是一个“未来市场”。上海一家外资银行的负责人形容中国的监管要求是“纯度测试”。为拿到经营牌照，银行必须已经拥有全部具备相应资质的信贷审批和风险人员团队。这就使得它们在还没有赚得任何收入之时就要付出很高的员工成本。美国资产管理公司先锋领航（Vanguard）最近暂停了在大陆设立自己的共同基金的计划，理由是建立大规模业务会很费时间。

Firms that do make inroads in China may face other headaches. HSBC was long the most successful foreign commercial bank in China. Now it is caught between Beijing and America after being entangled in a dispute over Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant. Banks will need to be skilful at managing both their relations with China's government and their portfolios to stand any chance of success. 

已经进入中国的公司可能会面对其他叫人头痛的问题。长期以来，汇丰银行一直是在中国最成功的外资商业银行。但自从卷入中国电信巨头华为的纠纷后，它就夹在中美之间左右为难。银行既要管理好投资组合，还要处理好与中国政府的关系，才有机会成功。

The giant IPO of Ant, a fintech group, would have been a monument to the power of China's capital markets. Instead, it became a monument to the power of its government. Officials halted it in November, less than 48 hours before trading was due to begin in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Heavy-handed regulatory actions are the most obvious way in which the state exercises control over markets. But there are also two more subtle points of influence. 

金融科技集团蚂蚁集团的巨额IPO本将成为见证中国资本市场力量的一座丰碑，最后却成了见证政府力量的丰碑。去年11月，距离在上海和香港启动交易仅剩不到48小时之际，这次IPO被官方叫停。铁腕监管行动是政府控制市场的最明显手段。但还有两个更微妙的影响点。

First, even as the government has pulled back from day-to-day economic management, state-run firms cast a shadow over everyday business. State-owned investment banks may be less capable than foreign upstarts. But most big firms that turn to the capital markets know to give most of their business to state players. 

首先，即使政府已经从日常经济管理中抽离，国有企业仍给日常经营蒙上了一层阴影。国有投资银行的能力可能比不上新登场的外资投行，但求助资本市场的大公司多数都知道要把业务大头交给国有企业。

The state is also an investment force to be reckoned with. Government-guided funds, which channel cash to companies in priority sectors such as chipmaking, have amassed about 9trn yuan in capital, and are growing quickly, according to China Venture, a research firm. "If they choose to compete in a certain area, you know you can't outbid them," says the head of a big private Chinese investment company.

政府也是一股不可忽视的投资力量。据研究公司投中的数据，把资金导向芯片制造等重点行业企业的政府引导基金已经积累了约九万亿元的资金，而且增长迅速。“只要它们决定进入某个领域竞争，你就知道赢不了它们。”中国一家大型民营投资公司的负责人表示。

Second, the state sets rigid parameters around its markets. This is felt most acutely in foreign-exchange trading because of China's careful management of the yuan. Though it is now easier for investors to move money across borders, they still face a host of rules once in China. If foreign firms, for example, do well trading equities, they typically must take their profits out of the country before reallocating money to bonds. Moreover, there are few currency-hedging tools in the onshore market, a hindrance for big investors. Off-shore hedging is possible but expensive. 

其次，政府给各个市场领域设置了严格的界限。这一点在外汇交易中感受最强烈，因为政府对人民币的管控尤其细致。虽然现在投资者跨境转移资金比以往容易，但只要是在中国境内，就仍需面对一系列规则。例如，如果外国公司在股票交易中获利，通常必须将收益先转出境外才能把资金重新分配到债市。而且，大陆市场的货币对冲工具不多，这对大投资者来说是个阻碍。虽然也可以离岸对冲，但成本高昂。