经济学人下载:中国做大金融开放蛋糕,不再担心"狼来了"(6)

A stately manner 

国家风范

Over the past few months, the strength of currency inflows into China—via both its trade surplus and inbound financial investments—implied that the yuan should have appreciated strongly. The head of a currency desk at a foreign bank in Shanghai says the central bank, acting through proxies, appeared to restrain it. "Whenever the yuan rose to 6.45 (against the dollar), big Chinese banks came in to stop it," he says. Without an open capital account, all prices in China's markets end up skewed. Stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen trade at a premium of roughly 30% over stocks in the same companies listed in Hong Kong. 

在过去几个月，按照资本流入（通过贸易顺差和对内金融投资）的势头，人民币本应强劲升值。上海一家外资银行的货币交易台负责人表示，央行似乎要抑制升值，它通过代理机构来干预。“每当人民币（兑美元）升到6.45时，大型中资银行就会入场阻止。”他说。没有开放的资本账户，中国市场的所有价格最终都会被扭曲。同一家公司的股票在上海和深圳股市要比在香港股市溢价约30%。

Few dare to go against the state. The China head of a global hedge fund reports that one unusual aspect of the mainland is that securities regulators conduct random inspections, turning up without warning and demanding answers to probing questions. "They would only do that in New York if you're under arrest," he says. 

少有人敢和政府作对。一家全球对冲基金的中国区负责人表示，中国大陆非同寻常的做法之一是证券监管机构会随机检查，毫无预警地到访，刨根问底。"换了在纽约，被逮捕了才会有这种事。他说。

Yet the controls around China's markets can exert a pull of their own. Whereas China trails America in the size of its stock and bond markets, it is, by one measure, ahead in commodity futures. The number of contracts traded last year on its main exchanges (in Dalian, Shanghai and Zhengzhou) was six times higher than on America's cme Group's exchanges. In terms of value they were roughly equivalent.

不过，对中国市场的管控也可能产生一种独有的吸引力。虽然中国的股市和债市规模落后美国，但在一项统计上，它的大宗商品期货市场领先美国。去年大连、上海和郑州这三个主要交易所的交易合约数量是美国芝加哥交易所集团（CME Group）下属交易所的六倍。若按价值计算则大致相当。

It is not just that China has the biggest appetite for commodities, from copper to iron ore. It is also home to some of the world's most liquid commodity exchanges. Smaller contract sizes make it easier for small companies to get involved in trading. And the very limits that Chinese investors face on investing offshore make commodity exchanges attractive. "There may be more contracts on foreign exchanges but not many have truly excellent liquidity. In China most contracts are liquid, giving investors lots of opportunities," says Sunny Fang of Orient Futures, one of China's biggest futures brokerages. 

中国不仅对从铜到铁矿石的大宗商品需求最大，还拥有世界上流动性最强的一些大宗商品交易所。较小的合约规模使小公司更容易参与交易。而中国投资者在对境外投资上所受的限制也让大宗商品交易变得有吸引力。“国外交易所的合约量可能更大，但真正流动性好的不多。在中国，大多数合约的流动性都很好，给投资者带来大量机会。”中国最大的期货经纪公司之一东证期货的方慧玲说。

Commodity futures also show how China's markets shape global markets. Last April the price of oil futures in America collapsed below zero as demand evaporated and storage filled up. In China, though, futures stayed at around $30 a barrel, with investors lapping them up. That attracted shipments to China and helped restore global oil prices to a more normal level. 

大宗商品期货也显示了中国市场对全球市场的影响力。去年4月，随着需求蒸发和存储爆满，美国的原油期货价格跌破零。但在中国，随着投资者大量涌入，价格保持在每桶30美元左右。这使得更多原油发运中国，帮助全球油价恢复到较正常的水平。

"The information from Chinese futures is very clear. This is what the world's biggest consumers are paying for commodities," says John Browning of Bands Financial, a Shanghai-based futures brokerage. Whether in China or Texas, oil is oil, and prices should converge. 

“中国期货市场发出的信息非常清晰。这就是全球最大的消费国为大宗商品支付的价格。”上海的期货经纪公司磐石金融（Bands Financial）的约翰·勃朗宁（John Browning）表示。不管是在中国还是在美国得州，石油还是石油，价格应该会趋于一致。

The information from China's stock and bond markets is more abstract. It tells you about the health and direction of the economy—no small thing given China's weight in the world. Yet interpreting it is not simple. Portfolio managers at Chinese investment groups have learned Western-style stock analysis but they also understand the Chinese regulatory environment, which can be crucial to performance, says Xu Yicheng of China International Capital Corporation, an investment bank. It is a divide that global firms and investors increasingly think they can, and need to, straddle. 

来自中国股市和债市的信息就更抽象了。它透露出中国经济的健康状况和走向鉴于中国在全球经济中的比重这非同小可。但要解读这些信息却不容易。投行中国国际金融公司的徐翌成表示，中国投资机构的投资组合经理已经掌握了西方那一套股市分析法，但他们同时还了解中国的监管环境，而这一点对投资表现可能至关重要。全球企业和投资者越来越觉得自己能够、也需要跨越这道鸿沟。