VOA常速英语:Political Uncertainty Hampers Economy(翻译)

What happens on the campaign trail, with conflicting promises on taxes, trade, and other issues,has a real impact here, according to the research firm, Macroeconomic Advisers.
据宏观经济咨询公司称，美国总统候选人在巡回宣传期间，向选民许下了不少自相矛盾的承诺，主要涉及税收、贸易和一些其他问题，而这些承诺所产生的影响不可小觑。

It shows the S&P 500 changes as the fortunes of the candidates change.Joel Prakken spoke via Skype.“As the odds of a Clinton victory rose, at least as recorded in the polls, we saw the market rally, and if the odds of a Clinton victory receded, we saw the market retreat” .
该公司表示，随着候选人时运的变化，标准普尔500指数（记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数）也随之发生变化。乔.皮拉克通过网络电话接受了VOA的采访，他表示：“希拉里竞选胜算增大时，至少从民意调查来看，能够发现股市止跌回升；当克林顿胜算机会萎缩时，股价下跌”。

The market and economic impact of politics and political uncertainty has grown, according to University of Iowa finance professor Art Durnev, who spoke via Skype.“Politics affects financial markets much, much more now than, let’s say, 10, 20 or 30 years ago” .
政局不甚明朗，市场与经济受这一点的影响不断加大，爱荷华大学金融学教授艾特.德尼卫通过网络电话这样表示，“政治对金融市场的影响远比10年前、20年前、30年前大得多，可以说今非昔比”。

That’s because uncertainty about taxes and rules has an impact on the factory floor. Research shows worried managers delay important corporate actions like the timing of stock offerings.“They hold up on investment, they start hoarding cash, they don’t want to spend.Major corporations delay their hiring, their firing decisions, everything is on hold for them” .
这是因为税收、标准等均不确定，这对工厂生产有很大影响。研究表明，公司管理者们忧心忡忡，会因此推迟做出有关公司的重大决定，如股票发行的时机等。“他们迟迟不进行投资，开始囤积现金，并极力抑制支出。大型公司也延缓做出招聘和解雇员工的决定，人们将所有的事情都搁置延期”。

Uncertainty also affects consumers who power a lot of economic activity,according to Macroeconomic Advisers’ Joel Prakken.
这种不确定性对那些有能力促进经济增长的消费者也产生很大影响。来自宏观经济咨询公司的乔.皮拉克表示。

“Buying a car, buying a house, starting a business, managing a business, making investment decisions,when they are uncertain about the environment in which they will be making those decisions,there is a natural tendency to take a pause, take a break, sit on your hands, and wait until the uncertainty clears” .
“拿买车、买房、创办企业、经营公司、做出投资决定等事情来说，当人们对自己做出以上决定所处的环境不很确定时，很自然地，人们会想要等等看，并持观望态度，直到事情变得清晰明了”。

Some scholars wonder if political uncertainty has a larger or smaller impact than energy costs,interest rates, or corporate guesses about future demand for products, according to Brookings Institution scholar Bill Galston.“There is a lot of professional disagreement among economists as to how weighty uncertainty is in relationship to more fundamental market evaluations”.
有些学者想要知道，同能源成本、利率、公司未来产品需求相比，政治不确定性对经济产生的影响更大还是相反。据布鲁金斯学会的学者比尔.盖尔斯顿表示。“关于政治不确定性与基本市场评估之间有多大的关系，经济学家们看法不一”。

Political uncertainty won’t end with the election.For example, if Democrat Hillary Clinton wins, she will have to get her program past Congress,where one or perhaps both houses may be controlled by skeptical Republicans.
这种政治不确定性不会随着大选的结束而告一段落。举例来说，假如民主党人希拉里.克林顿获胜，其所倡导的项目决议等仍须经国会通过，而两院中可能有一方甚至全部由持怀疑态度的共和党人操控。

Jim Randle, VOA News, Washington.
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