VOA常速英语:穆迪至今仍坚称，特朗普当政对美国经济是一大隐患

Before the November election, the conventional wisdom was that Donald Trump was bad for the economy.But a month into his presidency, consumers are still spending, US businesses are still hiring,and Wall Street is enjoying its longest winning streak since 1999.
在特朗普赢得11月的大选之前，大家普遍都认为他对美国经济就是一大隐患。可如今特朗普就任也一月有余，消费者还是在买买买，美国各企业也没有停止招聘，华尔街如今也沉浸在1999年以来最长连续上涨势头的喜悦当中。

We asked Mark Zandi ,“did the experts get it wrong?”“No…”
于是我们不禁要问Mark Zandi一个问题，“是专家们估计错误吗？”“当然不是……”

The Moody’s Analytics chief economist stands by his original assessment.Because from a policy prospective, Zandi says the president has yet to deliver on his campaign promises.
这位来自穆迪投资评级机构的首席经济学家如今还是坚持着对特朗普的最初看法。因为从政策角度来看，Zandi表示，新总统还没有履行自己的竞选承诺。

“What he wanted was 11 million undocumented workers to leave the country.What he wanted was a 45 percent tariff on China, 35 percent on Mexico. What he wanted was tax cuts and government spending increases that would increase the budget deficit by $10 trillion over 10 years.So if that’s what he got, that would lead to a recession.”
“他想要让1100万无证工人离开美国，想要对中国和墨西哥分别征收百分之45和百分之35的关税，他还想要减税，并增加政府开支，这会导致预算赤字在十年内增加10万亿美元。因此，一旦特朗普得偿所愿，美国就会迎来一次经济大衰退。”

But others say the record run-up in stock prices reflects renewed investor optimism under Trump,most of it driven by expectations of corporate tax cuts and fewer regulations,says PNC senior analyst Gus Faucher on Skype.
不过据其他人表示，股票上涨的记录反映出，投资者对特朗普的乐观情绪再次被调动起来，而其中很大一部分是由企业减税和减少监管的预期所推动的，匹兹堡国民银行高级分析师Gus Faucher通过Skype如是说道。

“So they are expecting stronger U.S. economic growth under President Trump, both real growth —that is after inflation — but also perhaps higher inflation, and that’s going to boost profits as well.”
“所以现在投资者们都满怀期待，希望美国经济在特朗普的带领下可以强劲增长，不论是实际增长——即通货膨胀后——还是更高的通货膨胀，这也会增加利润。”

But enthusiasm surrounding Trump’s economic agenda may be waning.
不过，围绕特朗普经济议程的热情可能会下降。

Goldman Sachs says investor confidence may have reached its peak.And Kevin Kelly at Recon Capital Partners says markets are close to a tipping point.
高盛表示，投资者信心可能已经达到了顶峰。在Recon Capital Partners任职的Kevin Kelly称，市场现在已经接近一个临界点。

“Now, it’s focusing on, OK, are we going to get deregulation or are we going to get taxes?Are things going to be weighing for a while? You know, is it going to be a second half of the year story?So I think that’s what’s kind of seeping into the market right now.”
“现在市场的重点是，这么说吧，我们是要放松管制还是要征税？会有人将这些事情斟酌一段时间吗？另外，这就是下半年的经济情况吗？我觉得这些才是如今正要向市场中渗透的东西。”

Mark Zandi says economic impact of Trump presidency may depend on Republicans in Congress.They favored tax cuts, and criticized government spending in deficits. But if lawmakers approve big tax cuts, economists ask, who’s going to pay for an infrastructure jobs program, or a giant border war？
ark Zandi说，特朗普担任总统会产生怎样的经济冲击，还得取决于国会中共和党人士的态度。他们赞成减税，批评政府赤字支出的行为。但如果是立法者同意大幅减税，经济学家们问道，未来将由谁来为基础设施就业计划以及大型边界墙来买单？

Mil Arcega, VOA news, Washington.
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