VOA常速英语:报告显示，ISIS经济濒临崩溃

Islamic State is often cited as the richest terrorist organization to have ever existed;but, the description is flawed, says report co-author Peter Neumann.
提到伊斯兰国，人们只道其是世上存在过的恐怖组织中最富有的一个，不过如今这种说法可不再适用了，本报道的合著者Peter Neumann如是说道。

“IS isn’t just a terrorist organization, it is a quasi-state, which means it has territory, it has a population, and most of its income comes from that territory.It taxes people, it extracts oil, and it also loots and confiscates the property of people who’ve fled.”
“伊斯兰国不单单是一个恐怖组织，还是一个半独立国，也就是说它有自己的领土和人口，而其大部分的收入都来自于自己管辖的领土。它对人们征税，开采石油，掠夺逃亡人口的财产并充公。”

Because its income is intrinsically linked to the territory it controls, the group is weakening.The Global Coalition, an association of 68 countries fighting against Islamic State, says the group has lost 62 percent of its territory in Iraq since 2014, its high point, and 30 percent in Syria.
从本质上来说，该组织的收入与其控制的领土息息相关，因而现在实力在不断削弱。全球联盟由68个国家组成，成立目标是共同打击伊斯兰国，联盟表示，伊斯兰国从2014年到现在已经丧失了其在伊拉克百分之六十二的领土，达到了历史最高，另外在叙利亚也失掉了百分之三十的领土。

Iraqi forces, backed by the United States, have seized control of eastern part of Mosul and expect to drive Islamic State out of the western half of the city in the coming weeks.
伊拉克军队在美国的支持下已经取得了对摩苏尔东部的控制，并希望能在未来几周内，将伊斯兰国驱逐出摩苏尔西半部。

“If ISIS now loses Mosul, which is the commercial capital of the caliphate, a lot of its tax base will erode too.And that’s why we’re concluding that the business model of ISIS is about to collapse,it’s failing, it’s no longer able to sustain itself.”
“作为哈里发帝国的经济首都，一旦摩苏尔被伊斯兰国失守，那么该组织的很多征税基础也会遭到破坏。因此我们可以得出结论，伊斯兰国的商业模式就快要崩溃，现在它就在不断衰退，以后也再没有能力维持下去了。”

The nature of the group means an accurate analysis is difficult.It operates largely on the black market and there are few paper trails.
伊斯兰国的本质说明，要想准确分析其经济能力相当不易。因为该组织主要是在黑市操作，书面凭据少得很。

But evidence suggests IS’s annual revenue has been cut by more than half from $1.9 billion in 2014 to a maximum of $870 million last year.
不过证据表明，伊斯兰国的年收入已经减少了一半多，2014年其年收入高达19亿美元，而去年却不超过8.7亿美元。

There are no signs the group has created other revenue streams.
目前还没有迹象表明伊斯兰国有其他收入来源。

“My prediction is that as ISIS’s territory declines, ISIS will revert to what they used to do before they had territory,which was to involve themselves in smuggling and in criminal extortion.”
“我估计，随着领土不断减少，伊斯兰国可能会重操旧业，干起没有地盘之前的行当，参与走私和敲诈勒索。”

But Neumann warns that the declining in income may not limit the group’s ability to carry out terrorist attacks outside its territory.
不过Neumann警告称，收入减少可能并不会限制伊斯兰国在自己领土外实施恐怖袭击的能力。

Henry Ridgwell，for VOA news, London.
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