VOA常速英语:Researchers: Human Toll of South Sudan War ’As Bad As Iraq or Syria’

The South Sudan civil war erupted in 2013 as rebels took up arms against government.A peace agreement signed two years later broke down and the conflict spread.Fighting has continued despite another ceasefire deal signed last month.It has taken a devastating human toll.Researchers say the war has led to nearly 400,000 deaths with around half of those attributable directly to violence mostly adult males.I think this place, South Sudan more broadly on par with the likes of Syria and Iraq as opposed to other sub-saharan African conflicts that we’ve seen in the past.
南苏丹内战爆发于2013年，当时叛军拿起武器对抗政府。两年后签署的和平协议破裂，冲突蔓延开来。尽管上个月签署了另一项停火协议，战斗仍在继续。它造成了毁灭性的人员伤亡。研究人员表示，这场战争已经导致近40万人死亡，其中约一半的人直接归咎于暴力，其中大部分是成年男性。我认为这个地方，南苏丹在更大程度上与叙利亚和伊拉克等国持平，而不是像我们过去看到的撒哈拉以南的非洲冲突。

The analysis led by Professor Checchi was funded by the United States Institute of Peace.Researchers used census projections to estimate population figures alongside mortality data from household surveys they also captured data on various predictors of mortality such as conflict intensity displacement and food security.A statistical model was then used to estimate the the death toll attributable to the war covering not only violent deaths but also those caused by a lack of health care, food shortages or disease, the indirect consequences of the conflict.
由Checchi教授领导的分析是由美国和平研究所资助的。研究人员使用人口普查预测来估计人口数字，同时也从家庭调查中获取死亡率数据，他们还收集了各种死亡率预测因素的数据，如冲突强度、流离失所和粮食安全。然后使用一个统计模型来估计战争造成的死亡人数，其中不仅包括暴力死亡，还包括缺乏保健、粮食短缺或疾病造成的死亡，以及冲突的间接后果。

They have actually been shown in many different armed conflicts to be sometimes that the majority of deaths attributable to the crisis.The researchers say their findings underscore the urgency of resolving the conflict;they also hope the analysis can inform the humanitarian response in South Sudan one of the Largest worldwide.Its total funding requirement in 2018 is 1.7 billion dollars; still only half funded according to the United Nations.
事实上，在许多不同的武装冲突中，它们有时被证明是危机造成的大多数死亡。研究人员说，他们的发现强调了解决冲突的紧迫性;他们还希望这项分析能够为南苏丹的人道主义反应提供信息，南苏丹是世界上最大的人道主义反应之一。2018年所需资金总额17亿美元; 根据联合国的统计，这仍然只是一半的资金。

I’m hoping that by putting a fairly concrete objective hopefully scientifically credible numbers around some crude metric of the like level of suffering and impact that these crises have on people.We’re actually going to be able to influence that broad global commitment to humanitarian financing.Checci now hopes to apply the statistical technique to other African conflicts starting with Nigeria and the war against Boko Haram Islamist militants.
我希望通过提出一个相当具体的目标，希望科学可信的数字围绕着一些粗略的指标，显示这些危机对人们造成的痛苦程度和影响。我们将能够影响全球对人道主义融资的广泛承诺。Checci现在希望将这种统计技术应用于从尼日利亚开始的其他非洲冲突以及打击博科圣地伊斯兰武装分子的战争。

Henry Ridgwell for VOA News, London.
美国之音新闻，亨利·里奇韦尔伦敦报道。