越南股市下跌通胀上升政府头痛

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Vietnam's financial markets have had a tumultuous year. The once high-flying stock market has fallen more than 30 percent, since January 1, and inflation has ballooned. A major investors' conference was scheduled to start Tuesday in Hanoi ,but last week, the government called it off.

越南金融市场经历了动荡的一年。曾经飞涨的股票市场下降了30%多。通货膨胀率从今年1月1号开始上升。按计划于星期二在河内召开一次主要投资者会议，但是政府上星期取消了这次会议。

The Euromoney Vietnam Investment Forum was supposed to bring hundreds of the world's top money managers to Hanoi. The scheduled keynote speaker was Sandy Flockhart, head of Asia operations for HSBC - one of the world's top-five banks.

欧洲货币越南投资论坛应该召集几百名世界顶尖级的货币管理人员到河内。按照会议议程，会议的主要发言人是世界五大银行之一的汇丰银行亚洲分部的负责人弗洛克哈特。

But, HSBC spokeswoman To Quynh says, last Thursday, HSBC got a call saying Flockhart would have to reschedule.

但是，汇丰银行的发言人琼说，汇丰银行上星期四接到电话被告知弗洛克哈特需要重新安排时间。

Quynh says the government asked Euromoney, the conference's organizer, to postpone it until September.

琼说：“越南政府要求会议的组织者‘欧洲货币’把会议推迟到9月举行。”

The government said it was worried about "a combination of pressing macro and micro-economic concerns." Vietnam's stock market is the worst performer in Asia this year.

越南政府说，越南政府担心“紧迫的宏观和微观经济的综合忧虑”。越南今年的股票市场是亚洲国家中最不景气的。

But investors criticized the decision, saying the government had missed an opportunity to reassure investors and ask for advice. Le Dang Doanh is an outspoken Vietnamese economist and a former advisor to the prime minister.

但是，投资者批评越南政府的这一决定，说越南政府错过了一次安定投资者和获得建议的机会。直言不讳的越南经济学家、越南总理的前顾问多恩说：

Doanh says the more difficult the situation is, the more important it is to have an open dialogue with investors, to calm their suspicions and concerns.

“越南的处境越困难，就越要与投资者们进行一次公开谈话，以消除他们的疑虑和担忧。”

Vietnamese officials have gotten used to reporting good news. The country's economy has grown more than seven percent a year since 2001.

越南官员已经习惯于一些正面消息的报导。从2001年以来，越南每年的经济增长率达到7%以上。

After Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization last year, foreign investment flooded in - topping $20 billion last year.

在去年加入了世界贸易组织后，越南吸引了大量外国投资。越南去年的外来投资金额创下最高记录，达到200亿美元。

But the influx of dollars created upward pressure on the exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong, which could have hurt exports. To keep the dong from rising, Vietnam's State Bank bought dollars and that contributed to inflation. Benedict Bingham, the International Monetary Fund's representative in Hanoi, explains.

但是，美元进入越南给越南盾汇率的上升造成压力，越南盾的汇率上升将影响越南的出口贸易。为了防止越南盾的升值，越南央行购进美元，这一措施导致通货膨胀。

"That left the banking system with an excess of dong. And, it was that surplus of dong liquidity in the first half of last year that generated the rise in bank credit, and that rise in bank credit contributed to the increase in inflationary pressure," said Bingham.

国际货币基金组织驻河内的代表宾厄姆解释说：“这使越南银行系统持有过多的越南盾。而且，去年上半年过多的越南盾流通导致了银行贷款的增加，银行贷款的增加导致了通货膨胀压力的增加。”

Meanwhile, the dollar was falling, making it even harder to keep the dong from rising. Prices for the commodities Vietnam imports were rising, too.

同时，美元正在贬值，这使控制越南盾升值变得更加困难。越南进口的商品价格也在上涨。

Then, Vietnam had its coldest winter in 40 years, driving up food prices. In February, inflation was nearly 16 percent.

然后，越南经历了40年里最寒冷的冬天，造成食品价格的上涨。越南今年2月的通货膨胀率达到将近16%。

To fight inflation, the government raised interest rates and ordered banks to reduce loans and increase their reserves.

为了抑制通货膨胀率，越南政府提高了利率，下令银行减少贷款，增加货币储备。

But that hurt the stock market, as investors sold shares to repay loans. The Vietnam index has lost about a third of its value this year.

但是，投资者卖掉股份去偿还贷款的做法影响了股票市场。越南股市指数价值今年损失了三分之一。

Some investors criticized the government for acting too late and too harshly. Peter Ryder, chief executive office of Indochina Capital, says Vietnam is still in a learning phase as its capital markets develop.

一些投资者批评越南政府采取行动太晚，而且措施太严厉。印度支那资本公司的执行总裁赖德说，随着越南资本市场的发展，越南目前还处在一个学习阶段。

"I would kind of give them about a C-plus at this point in time. The fact that they are trying to do something about it instead of ignoring the situation is definitely a plus," said Ryder. "The fact that they have struck as dramatically as they have as late in the game is a bit of a minus."

他说：“我大概会给现阶段的越南打个C+的评分。事实是，他们努力去解决现状而不是对现状坐视不管，这绝对可以为他们加分。事实是，他们戏剧般地陷入这种状况，并且太晚才采取行动，为他们减了点分。”

Ryder and other foreign investors still have long-term confidence in Vietnam's markets. The economy still is expected to grow by more seven percent this year.

赖德和其他外国投资者们仍然对越南市场充满长期信心。预计，越南今年的经济增长率仍将达到7%以上。

But on Monday, the IMF's Bingham pressed the government to fight inflation by allowing the dong to rise against the dollar, rather than by setting targets for the amount of credit banks can extend.

但是，星期一国际货币基金组织驻河内的代表宾厄姆向越南政府施加压力，要求越南政府采用允许调高越南盾对美元汇率的办法，而不是通过为银行设立增加贷款数额限制的方式来抑制通货膨胀。

"I think the government is fully aware of the problems posed by the rise in inflation, and also of the widening of the trade deficit. I think what we are also seeing now, however, is a broader debate on the instruments to address the rise in inflation in this economy. And I think that debate isn't settled yet," said Bingham.

他说：“我认为，越南政府已经充分意识到通货膨胀率上升所带来的问题，他们也充分意识到越南贸易赤字的扩大。我认为，我们现在也看到，越南政府正在就解决越南经济中通货膨胀率上升的方法展开了更为广泛的辩论。我认为这场辩论目前还没有结论。”

Last week, Vietnam said it would allow the dong's exchange rate to float a bit more freely - just half a percentage point around the official target. The question is whether this will be enough to keep the economy from overheating and to reassure jumpy investors.

上星期，越南表示将允许越南盾的汇率更加自由的浮动，只在政府目标上下浮动半个百分点。问题是，这么做能否足够防止越南经济过热，并且让忐忑不安的投资者放心。

Peter Ryder is not sure.

赖德对此并不确定。

"I still think we have not see the end of the volatility and perhaps even downward pressures," he said. "So, you know, buckle up!"

他说：“我仍然认为，我们还没有看到市场动荡的结束，也许我们甚至会看到经济衰退的压力，所以应该做好准备！”

With rising inflation, the falling dollar and volatile stock markets, investors and government economic officials expect to have their hands full.

随着通货膨胀率的上升、美元的贬值以及股票市场的动荡，投资者们和越南政府的经济官员们预计很快就会忙碌起来。