2009年度中国经济增速减缓

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国际货币基金组织（IMF）发表的最新一期《世界经济展望》报告预测，世界经济今年将收缩1.3%，为第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退。明年世界经济将逐步复苏，但仅有望增长1.9%。此外，在中国和印度经济的带动下，亚洲发展中经济体仍将保持经济增长，今明两年的增长速度将分别达4.8%和6.1%。

《世界经济展望》报告中说，中国经济今、明两年的增长速度会有所减缓，但在恶劣的国际金融和经济环境下，中国经济的表现依然是“强劲的”。中国经济的前进动力源于两个因素：一是政府积极行动，采取了大规模的财政刺激措施并放松了货币政策，从而扩大了消费和基础设施建设投资；二是出口部门在经济中所占比例较小，特别是把高进口额计算在内之后。

报告认为，一些亚洲经济体仍有加大货币政策力度的空间，包括中国在内的经济体更多地放松货币政策似乎是适当的。同时，中国可采取进一步的财政措施刺激国内消费，这既可在短期内支持经济增长，也有助于中期内重新平衡经济。

The GDP numbers aren't great, say economists, but they are in line with expectations. During the first quarter this year, China's economic growth slowed to a 6. 1% compared to the same quarter last year, the slowest rate of growth since 1992 when quarterly records began.

"The real economy has taken a hit far more serious than expected. Developing countries are experiencing deepening recession. And the growth rate of developing countries is slowing down. It was therefore not an easy achievement. "

There is now optimism that China's economy has hit a low point and has stabilized. With the government's 600 billion US dollar stimulus package having an impact, consumer spending is up, auto sales have hit a record high, there's been a surge in bank lending, and the stock market is up for the year. There is now a building expectation of stronger growth later in the year, but analysts warn any recovery remains fragile.

"The Chinese problem now is really a sort of international problem, right? So, the dropping GDP is primarily driven by the dropping export. "

Exports are down almost 20% compared to the same time last year. And most experts agree, unless there's a substantial improvement in the global economy in coming months, government spending alone in China will not be enough to sustain any potential rebound into next year.