是什么使得金正恩放下架子坐下来跟特朗普谈判？

What exactly has brought Kim Jong Un to the table? Is he negotiating from a position of strength or weakness? Here, three experts share their views.

到底是什么把金正恩带到了谈判桌？他在谈判中是处于强势地位还是弱势地位？在这里，三位专家分享了他们的观点。

Theory one: the North Korean economy is on the rocks

理论一：朝鲜经济岌岌可危

Kim is extremely vulnerable economically, which means he is approaching this negotiation from a position of weakness.

金正恩在经济上十分脆弱，这就意味着他在谈判中处于弱势地位。

We’ve seen a collapse in trade with China, with North Korean exports down 95% year on year, at only $9 million in February. Imports were down by about a third to $103 million.

我们看到，朝鲜与中国的贸易已经崩溃，朝鲜出口同比下降了95%，二月仅为900万美元。进口下降了大约三分之一，为1.03亿美元。

At home, the economy faces huge pressures. Unofficially, the dollar, along with China’s renminbi, has become more widely circulated, bringing important gains to market activities and private sector productivity, but creating huge problems for the regime, which is concerned the private sector will undermine state control.

在国内，经济面临着巨大压力。美元和人民币广为流通，这为市场活动和私营部门生产带来了重要收益，但是也给朝鲜政权造成了巨大麻烦，金正恩担心私营部门将会有损国家控制。

The weak state economy forced Kim to swallow Trump’s aggressive posturing, reach out to Seoul and Washington, and take the train to Beijing.

脆弱的的国家经济迫使金正恩对特朗普侵略性的姿态逆来顺受，向首尔和华盛顿伸出橄榄枝，并且乘火车去北京。

Pyongyang knows that at any time China can cut off delivery of free crude oil, causing inflation to soar. Kim is not stupid enough to risk this, and must come to the table.

平壤知道，中国随时可以切断免费的原油供应，这会造成物价疯长。金正恩还不至于蠢到冒险这样，所以他必须来到谈判桌。

Theory two: nuclear weapons give Kim leverage and strength

理论二：核武器给了金正恩底气

Content with his nuclear program and his status as a military leader capable of defending his people, Kim’s now turning his attention to international relations.

金正恩对他的核计划以及有能力捍卫人民的军事领导人的身份感到十分满意。现在，他正在把注意力转移至国际关系。

He feels confident that his nuclear program will force foreign leaders to treat him as an equal, and get him a seat at the table with the US as a peer, not an underdog.

他很自信，他的核计划将会迫使国外领导人们平等地待他，在与美国的谈判桌上占有一席之地，而非低人一等。

Simply sitting down for a summit with Moon, and then Trump, leader of the world’s most powerful country, will be characterized as a victory back home in North Korea. Neither his father, Kim Jong Il, or his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, held a summit with a sitting US president.

单单是坐下来与文在寅和超级大国领导人特朗普举行峰会就是朝鲜的一大胜利。他的父亲金正日、祖父金日成从未与在任美国总统举行过峰会。

Theory three: Kim’s playing for time to avoid war

理论三：金正恩正在争取时间避免战争

If it ever came to major war, North Korea would inflict massive damage on South Korean, Japanese, and US citizens. But even as it did, the regime would likely sustain enormous losses. Its leaders could lose their grip on power or their lives.

如果爆发大战，朝鲜将会重伤韩国、日本和美国市民。即便如此，这一政权可能会蒙受巨大损失。其领导人也可能会丧权甚至是丢命。

To buy time, North Korea may offer moderate and temporary concessions to limit its nuclear or missile tests programs.

为了争取时间，朝鲜应该会在核导试验计划上做出适当让步。

In any case, the idea that diplomatic or military action could immediately and irreversibly dismantle North Korea’s nuclear program is a chimera.

不管怎样，希望外交或军事行动立即、永久地解决朝鲜核计划是不现实的。