经济学人下载:日本的氢致灾难

Those calculations could change dramatically if the nuclear crisis worsens. As The Economist went to press, helicopters were dropping water to douse overheating nuclear fuel stored at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, where there have been explosions, fires and releases of radiation greater, it seems, than the Japanese authorities had admitted. The country’s nuclear industry has a long history of cover-ups and incompetence, and—notwithstanding the heroism of individual workers—the handling of the crisis by TEPCO, the nuclear plant’s operator, is sadly in line with its past performance.

如果核危机恶化，那些估计将会大幅改变。当经济学人下载付印时，直升机正在向福岛第一核电站注水，以给其中贮藏的现已过热的核燃料降温。该核电站已经发生过爆炸和起火，释放出的核辐射看来比日本当局承认的要大。掩盖真相和应对不力在日本的核工业由来已久，虽然作为个体的工人具有英雄主义情怀，但是该核电站的运营商东京电力公司处理这次危机还是跟它的以往表现一样，令人失望。

Even if the nuclear accident is brought under control swiftly, and the release of radiation turns out not to be large enough to damage public health, this accident will have a huge impact on the nuclear industry, both inside and outside Japan. Germany has already put on hold its politically tricky decision to extend the life of its nuclear plants. America’s faltering steps towards new reactors look sure to be set back, not least because new concerns will mean greater costs.

即使核事故很快得到控制，即使释放出的核辐射被证明不足以对公众健康产生危害，这次事故都将对不管是日本国内的还是日本国外的核工业产生很大影响。德国已经收回延长核电站寿命这一政治上很狡猾的决定。美国建设新反应堆的蹒跚脚步看来一定会退却，特别是因为新的担忧意味着更大的耗费。

China has announced a pause in its ambitious plans for nuclear growth. With 27 reactors under construction, more than twice as many as any other country, China accounts for almost half the world’s current nuclear build-out—and it has plans for 50 more reactors. And in the long term the regime looks unlikely to be much deterred from these plans—and certainly not by its public’s opinion, whatever that might be. China has a huge thirst for energy that it will slake from as many wells as it can, with planned big increases in wind power and in gas as well as the nuclear build-out and ever more coal-fired plants.

中国已经宣布暂停其雄心勃勃的核增长计划。中国有27个在建的核反应堆，是任何其他国家的2倍以上，占到世界现有核项目的将近一半，还有再建50个反应堆的计划。从长期来看，中国政府不太可能会畏惧于这些计划，当然也不会畏惧于民意（而无论民意如何）。中国对能源的饥渴似乎吸干多少口井都不够，政府准备大力增加风电和气能还有核电站，以及更多的燃煤火电站。

Thus the great nuclear dilemma. For the best nuclear safety you need not just good planning and good engineering. You need the sort of society that can produce accountability and transparency, one that can build institutions that receive and deserve trust. No nuclear nation has done this as well as one might wish, and Japan’s failings may well become more evident. But democracies are better at building such institutions. At the same time, however, democracy makes it much easier for a substantial and implacable minority to make sure things don’t happen, and that seems likely to be the case with plans for more nuclear power. Thus nuclear power looks much more likely to spread in societies that are unlikely to ground it in the enduring culture of safety that it needs. China’s nearest competitor in the new-build stakes is Russia.

因此，这是关于核电站的两难问题。要使核设施达到最高的安全性，不仅需要良好的规划和设计，还需要能够做到负责和透明的社会，因为这样的社会才能建立起能够得到并且值得信任的机构。有核国家没有哪个做得如同期望的那么好，由于这次事故日本未能做到这点可能变得更加明显。但是，民主国家更善于建立这种能够得到并且值得信任的机构。但是，民主同时也使少数执拗者更容易阻碍一定事情的发生，关于核能的计划似乎很可能面临这种情况。因此，在核能所需安全的持久文化不太可能为其提供支撑的社会，核能似乎更可能扩张。在新建核电站上跟中国最接近的对手是俄罗斯。