经济学人下载:日本的氢致灾难

Yet democracies would be wrong to turn their back on nuclear power. It still has the advantages of offering reliable power, a degree of energy security, and no carbon dioxide emissions beyond those incurred in building and supplying the plants. In terms of lives lost it has also boasted, to date, a reasonably good record. Chernobyl’s death toll is highly uncertain, but may have reached a few thousand people. China’s coal mines certainly kill 2,000-3,000 workers a year, and coal-smogged air there and elsewhere kills many more. It remains a reasonable idea for most rich countries to keep some nuclear power in their portfolio, not least because by maintaining economic and technological stakes in nuclear they will have more standing to insist on high standards for safety and non-proliferation being applied throughout the world. But in the face of panic, of sinister towers of smoke, of invisible and implacable threats, the reasonable course is not an easy one.

但是，如果民主国家抛弃核能，那就错了。核能依然具有提供可靠电力、一定程度上保障能源安全、没有二氧化碳排放的优点。在致死数量方面，迄今为止，核能的记录合理而良好。切尔诺贝利的死亡人数现在还高度不确定，但可能已经达到几千人。中国的煤矿每年必定会夺取两三千工人的生命，煤矿和其他地方含有较多煤尘和烟雾的空气致死人数更多。对大多数富国来说，在能源组合中保留一些核能还是合理的想法，特别是因为通过维护在核问题经济和技术上的利益，它们在要求世界范围内采用高标准的安全性和不扩散方面会有更大的说服力。但是，在恐慌面前，在丑恶的烟塔面前，在隐形的和难以解除的威胁面前，这条合理的道路不会平坦。

Back to Tokyo话题转回东京
No country faces that choice more painfully than Japan, scarred by nuclear energy but also deprived of native alternatives. To abandon nuclear power is to commit the country to massive imports of gas and perhaps coal. To keep it is to face and overcome a national trauma and to accept a small but real risk of another disaster.

面对这个抉择，没有哪个国家像日本这样痛苦，核能给它留下累累疤痕，国家却又别无选择。如果放弃核能，日本就要大量进口天然气可能还有煤炭；如果保留核能，日本就要面对和解决国家性的创伤，接受发生另一场灾难这个可能性不大但又的确存在的风险。

Japan’s all too frequent experience of calamity suggests that such events are often followed by great change. After the earthquake of 1923, it turned to militarism. After its defeat in the second world war, and the dropping of the atom bombs, it espoused peaceful growth. The Kobe earthquake reinforced Japan’s recent turning in on itself.

日本极其频繁的不幸经历表明，这类事件之后通常会有巨大变化。在1923年的地震之后，日本转向了军国主义。在第二次世界大战失败、美国投下原子弹之后，日本赢得了和平的发展。阪神地震加强了日本近来转向国内的政策。

This new catastrophe seems likely to have a similarly huge impact on the nation’s psyche. It may be that the Japanese people’s impressive response to disaster, and the rest of the world’s awe in the face of their stoicism, restores the self-confidence the country so badly needs. It may be that the failings of its secretive system of governance, exemplified by the shoddy management of its nuclear plants, lead to more demands for political reform. As long as Mr Kan can convince the public that the government’s information on radiation is trustworthy, and that it can ease the cold and hunger of tsunami survivors, his hand may be strengthened to further liberalise Japan. Or it may be that things take a darker turn.

这次灾难似乎很可能会对日本的国民心理产生相似的巨大影响。日本人对灾难的态度令人印象深刻，世界对他们斯多葛哲学充满敬畏。日本人的这种作风可能重新架构起该国急需的自信。对核电站事故的乏力应对，代表了日本管理秘密体制的失败，对政治改革的要求会更强烈。只要菅直人能让民众相信政府公布的辐射信息是可信的，政府可以减轻海啸幸存者的寒冷和饥饿，他就还能加强改革、进一步促使日本自由化。否则，事情可能转向更糟的一面。

The stakes are high. Japan—a despondent country with a dysfunctional political system—badly needs change. It seems just possible that, looking back from a safe distance, Japan’s people will regard this dreadful moment not just as a time of death, grief and mourning, but also as a time of rebirth.

赌注较高。日本这个萎靡不振的国家，迫切需要改革它不正常的政治体制。如果日本人以后从一个安全的距离来回顾这段历史，他们完全可能把这个难熬的时段不仅视作死亡之时，痛苦之时，哀悼之时，还会把它视作再生之时。