经济学人下载:英国剧变,英国正在宪法剧变的边缘

The House of Commons is also set to shrink from 650 to 600 seats, and almost every constituency will have new boundaries. With few exceptions, the seats will be more uniform, with around 76,000 voters apiece—a change that will mean many seats straddling county borders for the first time, and the merger of many small seats, notably in Wales. The next parliament might also have a fixed term of five years, ending the privilege enjoyed by British prime ministers of choosing the date (within five years) to call a general election.

下议院的席位将从650个缩减到600个，几乎所有的选区都要重新划分。总体来说席位将更加均衡，每个议员代表近7.6万的投票人，这一改变将意味着有很多席位首次跨郡，很多量小的席位合并，尤其是在威尔士。下一届议会的任期大概也是5年，首相将不再享有（在5年内）选择大选日期的特权。

Under another set of proposals due to be unveiled in May, the present House of Lords is earmarked for abolition. Its 792 serving members are to be replaced, after a transition period, by a semi-elected house (possibly called a Senate) of as few as 300 members. According to press leaks, 80% of its members would be elected by a form of proportional representation (PR)—ie, a system in which a party that polls a fifth of the votes wins roughly a fifth of the seats—for single terms of 15 years. The remaining 20% would be appointed, in an awkward trade-off between democracy and the expertise brought to Lords debates by retired military chiefs, judges, scientists and other grandees who may be unwilling to run for party-political office. The 92 remaining hereditary peers would be ejected from Parliament, as would most (but not all) of the 25 Anglican bishops and archbishops who sit in today’s House of Lords.

在其他将于5月揭晓的一系列提案中，当前的上议院又被打上了待废止的标签。792名议员将在过渡期后被300人左右半选举产生的议院（可能名为参议院）代替。据媒体透露，80%的成员由比例代表制（PR）选举产生，该体系下得到五分之一投票的政党得到五分之一的席位，每轮任期15年。剩下的20%通过任命确定，在对民主和专家艰难权衡后，上议院的议会辩论将加入退休的军长、法官、科学家和其他无意加入任何党派的显贵要人。目前的92位世袭贵族将被挤出议会，25位圣公会的大主教和主教中大部分（但不是全部）也是一样。

Many peers expect their elected successors to be much more assertive towards the House of Commons, straining old conventions that the Lords should bow before the primacy of the elected chamber. Government ministers play down the prospect of clashes, saying there is no reason why the relationship should alter. That seems a stretch. At the least the new relationship will probably have to be written down in statutory form. And then, notes Vernon Bogdanor of King’s College London, Britain would be “halfway to a written constitution”. That marks another break, this time with the tradition that Britain’s constitution exists merely in virtual form, scattered across the statute books and buttressed by precedent and convention.

很多贵族期待他们通过选举产生的继任者能在下议院更有自信，由此打破旧时上议院屈从于下议院的惯例。政府部长们试图减少可能的冲突，表示没有理由改变现有的关系。这似乎也是行得通。最终新形成的关系很可能也要以文字形式立法。伦敦大学国王学院的韦农??波格丹诺（Vernon Bogdanor）表示那时英国算是“向成文的宪法迈进了一半”。那会是另一次突破，过去英国宪法只以道德形式存在的传统，将为法令全书所打破并受到判例和惯例的支持。

Will all these changes happen? Previous attempts at bold reform have often been watered down. Ordinary voters may determine part of the answer. Plans for reforming the upper house are—like plans for AV—Liberal Democrat ambitions, and are the personal responsibility of Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister. If May 5th sees a series of defeats for the Lib Dems—notably in the AV referendum, but also in elections held the same day to local councils and devolved parliaments—Mr Clegg will need something to cheer up his party. If, on the other hand, AV is approved, furious Tory MPs may demand that the House of Lords be left alone.

这些改变会成为现实吗？先前大胆的改革努力通常都被冲淡了。普通的投票人也许会对结果有一定的决定作用。改革上议院的计划——如采用AV——是自民党的宏愿，也是自民党领袖及副首相尼克??克莱格（Nick Clegg）的个人责任。如果5月5日自民党遭受一连串的打击——尤其是在就是否采取AV的公投，以及同日就市政委员会和江河日下的议会的选举——克莱格先生就得想办法来给自己的政党鼓气了。如果情况相反，AV得以通过，怒火中烧的托利党国会议员也许会要求喊停上议院改革。