经济学人下载:德国,明天会更绿？

In government the Greens will inevitably suffer wear and tear. Relations with the SPD, happy to be in power but shocked not to be in charge, may be tricky. Some of the Greens’ goals, like scrapping university-tuition fees, clash with others, such as narrowing the budget deficit. But the opportunity is great. The party has been trying to escape from its environmental ghetto. If Mr Kretschmann manages Germany’s showcase economy well, it will help.

在政府中，绿党不可避免的遭遇摩擦。和社民党的关系以及兴奋过后发现竟然不能掌权，这些都是棘手的问题。绿党的一些目标（如废除大学学费）会与其他政党产生冲突（如缩减预算赤字）。然而机遇还是一片大好。绿党正在努力跳出其环保主义的狭隘圈子。如果科瑞奇曼能够搞定德国表面上的经济问题，将对此大有裨益。

Nuclear panic alone does not explain the Greens’ success. The party appeals most to groups whose share of the electorate is growing: relatively young, middle-class urbanites with a good education. Its leadership is a harmonious quartet, two men and two women who appeal to different groups of voters, notes Oskar Niedermayer of Berlin’s Free University. It has shed its radicalism and, at least in theory, now embraces economic growth. It is now “clearly in double-digit territory,” says Mr Niedermayer. It is far from being a broad-based Volkspartei like the CDU and SPD, but it is happy in its expanding niche.

对核能的恐慌并不能解释绿党全部的胜利原因。该政党对日益庞大的相对年轻、受过良好教育的城市中产阶级选民群体最具吸引力。他的领导班子是一个和谐的四重奏：两男两女。他们各自吸引着不同的选民群体。而奥斯卡??内德梅耶则来自柏林自由大学。他们已经流露出自己的激进主义，并至少在理论上承诺经济增长，并将其 “明确在两位数的范围”，内德梅耶说。它与经验老道的基民盟以及社民党相比尚有很大差距，然而他们在自己扩张的领域中自得其乐。

As for Mrs Merkel, she is bruised but not broken. The CDU remains the largest party in Baden-Wurttemberg and it almost beat the SPD in Rhineland-Palatinate.  “There are not that many countries where a party in government is stable at 35-37% nationwide,” says Peter Altmaier, a CDU leader in the Bundestag.  “The chancellor’s rivals within the CDU have either resigned or lost elections. “For the first time she no longer has natural enemies in the party,” says Mr Altmaier. Now she is “free to develop her own project a little bit more clearly than in the past.

对于默克尔而言，她大受挫折但还不至于一败涂地。基民盟仍是巴符州最大的政党，而且，在莱茵兰—普法尔茨州，他们差一点就可以击败社民党。联邦议院的一位基民盟领导人彼得??奥特梅尔说：“一个政党可以在国家35-37%范围内保持稳定执政，这在其他国家并不多见。”默克尔在基民盟内部的竞争对手或是辞职或是在选举中落败。“她第一次在党内没了对手。”奥特梅尔说。现在，她正在“比以往略显清晰地自由发展她的计划。”

It may sound eerily like the Greens’ idea: marrying the market economy to “sustainability”. Mrs Merkel’s hasty abandonment of her government’s first energy policy, which was to squeeze more power out of ageing nuclear plants, hurt her credibility. Its successor, she thinks, may find new supporters. With the FDP likely to become a more awkward partner (see box), Mrs Merkel may need an alternative after the federal election in 2013. The Greens, seasoned by government in Baden-Wurttemberg, might just fit the bill.

将市场经济与可持续发展相结合——这听起来有些像绿党的想法。默克尔轻率地抛弃了她起初的能源政策，即利用老化的核工场生产出更多的能源。这使得默克尔信誉受损。她认为，接下来的政策会得到新的合作者的支持。随着与民主自由党执政联盟伙伴关系的恶化，默克尔在联邦选举后需要新的合作伙伴。被巴符州政府调教过的绿党，可能刚好符合要求。