经济学人下载:巴拉克.奥巴马的中东政策

Since those two speeches, a strange thing has happened. The practical problems Mr Obama inherited in the Middle East have proved obstinately hard to resolve. In the meantime, however, the abstract issues he raised in Oslo and Cairo have thrust themselves to centre-stage. The Arab awakening has demanded rapid decisions about whether to support or abandon friendly autocrats such as Mr Mubarak. And in Libya Mr Obama has had to rush in double-quick time through a real-life version of his Oslo argument: that America sometimes has to use force on humanitarian grounds.

从那两次演讲之后，一件奇怪的事发生了。奥巴马接手的在中东的实际问题证明是非常顽固的，很难解决。但是，同时，他在奥斯陆和开罗提出的抽象问题把他们自己推向了舞台中央。阿拉伯的觉醒需要迅速做出决断：是支持还是抛弃像穆巴拉克这样友好的独裁者。在利比亚这个发生在现实情境下的问题上，奥巴马需要果断证明他在奥斯陆提出的观点：在人道主义立场上，美国有时需要使用武力。

Lovely in the spring明媚春光
The early part of the Arab awakening was simplest for Mr Obama. Some Americans construed the people-power revolution that toppled Mr Mubarak in February as a blow to the United States; but if Mr Obama shared these qualms, he hid them well. “Egypt will never be the same,” he said, implying that it would be better.

对奥巴马来说，阿拉伯觉醒的早期是最容易的。一些美国人把2月份推翻穆巴拉克的人民-权利革命看做是对美国的打击；但是如果奥巴马也有这些不安，他把这些不安很好地掩盖了起来。他说，“埃及绝不会再这样了”，暗示着埃及局面将会更好。

From the outset, according to a senior administration official, Mr Obama not only concluded that Egypt’s president of 30 years was beyond saving. He also welcomed this example of peaceful democratic change driven from within and not, as in Iraq, by Western power. This development, Mr Obama concluded, had “a very good upside” for the United States. The emergence of a democratic Egypt would at last help America to align its interests with its values and sharply counter the message of violent change preached by al-Qaeda.

根据一位高级政府官员的说法，从一开说，奥巴马不仅断言，统治埃及达30年之久的总统无药可救了，他还表示欢迎这种国内促成的和平民主进程（而不是像伊拉克那样的在西方国家推动下的民主改革）。奥巴马总结说，这种发展对美国来说是“坏事的很好一面”。一个民主埃及的出现最终将会帮助美国实现利益与价值观的统一，有力反击基地组织炮制的“暴力变革”的说法。

Mr Obama’s optimistic reading of events was all every well when Tunisia and Egypt were the templates for change. But it was too much to expect all the long-entrenched autocrats of the Arab world to go so gently into their good nights. In Yemen and Bahrain, pro-American regimes are clinging bloodily to power in spite of America’s pleas for reform. Since both have been highly useful to the United States (Yemen helps to hold al-Qaeda at bay and Bahrain hosts the Fifth Fleet), this makes it much harder for Mr Obama to align his country’s interests with its values.

以突尼斯和埃及为样板，奥巴马的这种对事态的乐观解读的确很好。但是，不能指望阿拉伯世界长期执掌政权的独裁者会这样温和地接受改变。在也门和巴林，虽然美国督促变革，亲美政权仍然拼死把持权力不松手。由于这两个国家对美国来说都非常有用（也门帮忙把基地组织限制在海湾地区，巴林则是第五舰队的驻地），这使得奥巴马更难把美国的利益和价值观统一起来。

Libya, the Americans insist, is a completely different kettle of piranhas. Even after giving up an illicit nuclear-weapons programme and compensating victims of the Pan Am bombing of 1988, Colonel Qaddafi was never America’s ally. And the depredations he has unleashed on the opposition eclipse anything witnessed so far in the course of the Arab awakening. That is why, on March 3rd, Mr Obama said the colonel had lost all legitimacy and had to “step down from power and leave”. To nudge him on his way Mr Obama closed Libya’s embassy in Washington, froze many of his assets and promoted international sanctions.

美国坚称，利比亚的情况则完全不同。就连在放弃违禁核武器项目、对1988年泛美航空公司爆炸案的受害人进行赔偿以后，卡扎菲上校也从不是美国的盟友。他突然抢掠反对派，侵蚀了迄今为止阿拉伯觉醒过程的一切。因此，3月3日，奥巴马说卡扎菲政府完全失去了合法性，需要“交出权力，赶快下台”。为了促使卡扎菲尽快下台，奥巴马关闭了利比亚在华盛顿的大使馆，冻结了他的财产，推动对利比亚实行国际制裁。