经济学人下载:巴拉克.奥巴马的中东政策

At the beginning of March, in other words, Mr Obama’s policy seemed to be regime change by exhortation and sanctions. The exact sequence of events that resulted in American forces being ordered into action just over a fortnight later is now hotly disputed. But what finally changed Mr Obama’s mind is no mystery: it was the imminent fall of Benghazi, the biggest city still in rebel hands, and the prospect of a calamity befalling its 700,000 or so inhabitants. “We cannot stand idly by when a tyrant tells his people that there will be no mercy,” Mr Obama said on March 19th. Though removing Colonel Qaddafi remains American policy, Mr Obama insists that this is not the aim of the military action authorised by the Security Council.

换句话说，在3月初，奥巴马的政策似乎是通过告诫和制裁促成利比亚政权的更迭。仅在两周后，美军受命攻击利比亚，造成这种改变的一些事件的真正顺序现在是个激烈争论的问题。但是，最终导致奥巴马改变注意的却并不神秘：依然在反叛者手中的最大城市班加西将会失手，这一事态迫在眉睫，对70万左右居民来说是场灾难。3月19日，奥巴马说，“当一个暴君告诉人民没有慈悲可言时，我们不能袖手旁观。”虽然推翻卡扎菲上校依然是美国的政策，奥巴马坚称这不是联合国授权的军事行动的目标。

Most Arab leaders have little love for Colonel Qaddafi, so have muted their criticism of this latest war. But the “very good upside” Mr Obama discerned when he abandoned Mr Mubarak in February is no longer such a sure thing. It is much harder for him to maintain that counter-narrative of peaceful democratic change, which was supposed to disconcert Iran and al-Qaeda, while American missiles rain on Libya.

大多数阿拉伯领导人并不喜欢卡扎菲，所以他们对这场最近的战争不予批判。但是，2月份奥巴马抛弃穆巴拉克时所称的“坏事的很好一面”不再是这种确定之事。保持和平民主变革的反叙手法对奥巴马来说更加困难，而他本想一面对利比亚发动导弹袭击一面用和平民主变革达到警告伊朗和基地组织的目的。

Meanwhile, the big regional problems that confronted America before the Arab awakening have not gone away. After his Cairo speech, Mr Obama tried to make good his promise to push for peace in Palestine. Last year he attempted to kick-start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and picked a fight with Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, over Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. But the initiative failed, and in February Mr Obama ordered a veto of a Security Council resolution that would have condemned the settlements.

同时，在阿拉伯觉醒之前已经摆在美国面前的重大地区问题还没得到解决。在开罗演讲之后，奥巴马试图兑现推动巴勒斯坦和平的诺言。去年，他尝试启动以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的谈判，并跟以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡就在以色列占领地建立居民区的问题进行了论战。但是，奥巴马的积极做法没有凑效，2月份他下令否决掉一项原本会谴责定居点的安理会决议。

Mr Obama has had only slightly more success with Iran. After intricate diplomacy last year, he won Russian and Chinese support for a Security Council resolution that applies tough new economic sanctions. Yet the tighter squeeze has not made the Iranians stop enriching uranium.

在伊朗问题上，奥巴马取得了稍多一点的成绩。去年经过一番错综复杂的外交行动，他赢得了俄罗斯和中国的支持，两国赞成了对伊朗实施新的严厉经济制裁的安理会决议。不过更严厉的制裁并没使伊朗停止浓缩铀的试验。

The administration hopes that the Arab awakening may revive Iran’s pro-democracy“green revolution” of 2009. At that time, Mr Obama limited his support for the opposition out of fear that an American embrace might taint it. Now he is less cautious: in a message for the Persian new year he told Iran’s young that they were not “bound by the chains of the past”. For the time being, however, the regime is holding firm.

奥巴马政府希望，阿拉伯觉醒可能重新振作2009年伊朗倾向民主的“绿色革命”。当时，奥巴马担心美国的支持会给“绿色革命”带来污点，所以对反对派的支持比较有限。现在他没有那么小心了：在波斯新年时的讲话中，他对伊朗青年说他们不会“为过去所羁绊”。但是，目前当政者还是大权在握。

Iran also has the satisfaction of watching Mr Obama’s response to the Arab awakening weaken some of America’s oldest alliances in the Middle East. The Gulf rulers in general, and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah in particular, began to lose faith in America’s reliability as a protector the moment Mr Obama decided to abandon the faithful Mr Mubarak. The Saudis are reported not to have consulted America before deciding that they would send troops across the causeway to help the embattled royal family in next-door Bahrain.

在阿拉伯觉醒上奥巴马的应对导致奥巴马在中东的一些老盟友遭到削弱，伊朗看到这种局面也很满意。总体而言，从奥巴马决定抛弃忠实的穆巴拉克那一刻起，海湾地区的统治者尤其是沙特阿拉伯国王阿卜杜拉就对美国提供保护的可靠度失去了信心。据报道，沙特没有咨询美国就决定派出军队穿过堤道，以帮助邻国巴林卷入战争的皇室。

To opponents at home, all this is evidence that Mr Obama is out of his depth. Sarah Palin, on a visit to Jerusalem, said that if she were president she would have shown “more decisiveness”. Maybe. But Mr Obama can at least say that his improvised responses to the fast-moving Arab awakening have conformed broadly to the principles he laid out in his thoughtful speeches in Cairo and Oslo. If only intellectual consistency were a guarantee of success in war and diplomacy.

对国内的反对者而言，所有这些都是奥巴马能力有限的证据。Sarah Palin在访问耶路撒冷时说，如果她是总统，她会表现得“更加果断”。也许如此。但是，奥巴马至少可以说，在快速发展的阿拉伯觉醒运动中，他的随机应对与他在开罗和奥斯陆提出的很有思想的原则符合度很高。要是知识阶层的一致性能够保证战争和外交获胜就好了。