经济学人下载:美国移动通讯业-联姻大胆,反响不佳

AT&T maintains that its deal will not be anticompetitive, even though it will leave it and Verizon with a combined 70% share of the American market, up from 58%. It points out that the average inflation-adjusted price for wireless services in America fell by 50% from 1999 to 2009 according to the Government Accountability Office, an arm of Congress, even though there were several large mergers involving mobile-phone companies during that period. The company also argues that many local markets in America still have five or more mobile-phone firms pitching for customers’ business, so taking T-Mobile out of the mix should not dent competition.

交易达成后，AT&T与Verizon在美市场总份额，将从58%提升至70%，即便如此，AT&T仍坚称这笔交易并不反竞争。它指出，根据国会下属机构“美国审计总署”的数据，1999~2009年期间，即使有好几起移动电话企业大并购，美国无线通讯服务经过通胀调整后的均价，还是下跌了一半。AT&T也表明，美国众多本地市场，仍有超过五家移动电话公司，竞价提供客户业务，因此从这场混战中带走T-Mobile，应不致破坏竞争。

Fans of the deal reckon such arguments should be enough to convince regulators. Hal Singer of Navigant Economics, a consulting firm, notes that although T-Mobile’s prices are low, it has been losing subscribers rapidly, which suggests that it is hardly an effective check on AT&T. That may explain why Deutsche Telekom is so keen to say auf Wiedersehen to its American wireless business.

支持交易的人认为，上述理由足以说服监管机构。咨询公司Navigant Economics的Hal Singer注意到，尽管T-Mobile的服务价格低廉，订户却一直迅速流失，表明对AT&T的攻势难以阻遏。这可以解释，Deutsche Telekom何以如此热衷向其美国无线通讯业务道“再见”。

However, an antitrust expert says that exclusive, nationwide device deals such as the one AT&T struck with Apple in 2007 for distribution of the latter’s iPhone could encourage regulators to take a far broader view of the market than they have done in the past, not least because in smartphones, the near-duopoly of AT&T and Verizon will be so much stronger.

然而，一位反垄断专家称，几起全国性设备专营交易，如AT&T在2007年与苹果就独家销售iPhone达成协议，可能促使监管机构以较以往更长远的眼光，审视该市场，尤其因为智能电话市场上，AT&T与Verizon几近两家独大，监管机构若不行动，该局面会愈加铁板一块。

At an industry conference this week, Dan Hesse, the boss of Sprint Nextel, gave warning that allowing AT&T to walk off with T-Mobile would leave “too much power…in the hands of two”. The Computer & Communications Industry Association, whose members include firms such as Google and Facebook, echoed that sentiment. In a statement on March 22nd it said that the proposed deal “may be the most aggressive and anti-consumer merger proposal in history.”

本周，在一场业界会议上，Sprint Nextel老板Dan Hesse警告，允许AT&T带走T-Mobile，会导致“两者掌握的力量过多”。“计算机与通信产业联盟”也附和此观点。其成员包括Google跟Facebook之类的企业。3月22日，该联盟发表了一份声明，称这桩交易提案“可能是史上最咄咄逼人又反消费者的并购提议。”

AT&T’s plan could also hit another snag. In several previous mergers between mobile-phone companies regulators have required the merging businesses to sell wireless spectrum, network infrastructure and other assets in some local markets to win their approval. This has allowed smaller competitors such as US Cellular and MetroPCS to snap up the assets, turning them into stronger rivals in those areas. AT&T has made it clear it is willing to do the same thing to get a green light for its deal. But given the great clout the new entity would have, regulators may conclude that even a large number of disposals would not guarantee robust competition in some areas.

AT&T的计划可能会碰到另一个难题。此前几宗移动电话公司并购案，监管机构都要求合并企业在某些当地市场卖掉无线频谱、网络基础设施及其他资产，以获准并购。小竞争者如US Cellular和MetroPCS得以抢购这些资产，在这些地区壮大。AT&T清楚表示，只要交易获准，它也会照做。不过，鉴于此次并购产生的新实体影响甚巨，监管机构可能断定：就算并购企业大规模出售资产，也无法保证某些地区竞争机制健全，因而不予批准。