经济学人下载:美国房地产市场,持续疲软

The effects of America's worst property crash go very wide
房地产崩盘连锁效应，情况还能更坏？

TO THE many dubious distinctions of Las Vegas, add one more: foreclosure capital of America. According to RealtyTrac, a property-listings firm, one in every ten homes in the city was in some stage of foreclosure last year, almost five times the national rate. In North Las Vegas, a poorer suburb, the figure was one in five. These statistics would be even grislier were it not for lenders’ inability or reluctance to eject all those who are in default at once. People who have managed to hold onto their homes are far from lucky: property prices are around 60% below the peak they reached in 2006, leaving 70% of homeowners in the area owing more on their mortgage than their property is worth. (Nationally, the proportion of homes that are “under water” is a still-awful 23%.)

拉斯维加斯的诸多不安因素又添了一个：取消住宅赎回权的资本。根据房地产上市公司RealtyTrac，去年城中每十座住宅就有一所被取消赎回权，几乎是全国平均水平的五倍。在北拉斯维加斯相对贫穷的郊区，这个比例达到了五分之一。如果不是默认贷款人无力偿还或还不愿意退出一次违约的不算在内，这些统计数据将更加恐怖。然而守住自己的家园的人也很不幸：楼价比2006年达到的峰值跌了大概60％，这导致该地区70％的房主，所付的抵押贷款超过了房产的价值。（在全国范围内，缩水房子的比例维持在可怕的23％。）

All this makes Las Vegas the most extreme example of the many cities in America’s sunbelt that grew rapidly thanks to the cheap and abundant credit of recent decades, only to suffer fearsome property crashes during the subprime crisis and the ensuing recession. The ten most foreclosure-afflicted cities in the country are all in Arizona, California or Nevada, notes RealtyTrac. Of the ten most foreclosure-prone states, only one—Michigan, with its car-related problems—lies outside the sunny south and west. As these places are now discovering, it is not just unfortunate property-owners who feel the reverberations of such monumental busts, nor are their effects confined to pocketbooks.

上述数据使拉斯维加斯成为美国众多城市中最极端的例子。几十年来廉价而丰富的信贷使美国阳光地带发展迅速，然而次贷危机和随之而来的经济衰退中，却遭遇到可怕的房地产崩盘。Realty Trac指出，美国的十个被取消赎回权情况最严重的城市都在亚利桑那州，加州或内华达州。另外饱受止赎权之苦的十个州里，只有密歇根州不处在阳光地带（美国南部和西部)，是因为汽车的相关问题。这些地方的人们现在发现，不幸的房产所有者深受破产之痛，已经不限于经济利益。

The signs of the crash are everywhere in Las Vegas. The city’s outer suburbs are eerily quiet, thanks to the preponderance of unsold and foreclosed homes. There are few lights in any windows, and few cars on the roads. Banners and boards advertising hugely discounted housing flap and rattle mournfully in the desert wind. In North Las Vegas every second house on some streets carries a “For Rent” sign, offering rates of as little as $150 a month. One or two houses on each street have been boarded up and abandoned. Even on the city’s famous “strip” of cavernous casinos and high-rise hotels, the razzle-dazzle is marred by the grey concrete hulks of abandoned building projects.

崩盘迹象在拉斯维加斯随处可见。由于过多未售出及被取消赎回权的房屋的存在，该城市的远郊出奇的安静。窗口很少透出灯光，路上车辆稀少。标明巨幅折扣的横幅和广告板被荒凉的风吹的呜咽作响。在北拉斯维加斯有些街道上的每两家就有一家挂着“出租”标志，费用低至每月150美元。在每条街道上都有一两所房子被封或者被遗弃。即使在城中著名的洞穴赌场及高层酒店一带，其繁华也被废弃的建设项目，处处遗留的灰色混凝土给蒙上了污点。