经济学人下载:美国房地产市场,持续疲软

When a property crash becomes as pervasive as Las Vegas’s, explains Devin Reiss, a former head of the Nevada Association of Realtors (NVAR), it takes on a life of its own. Nasser Daneshvary of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas has found that the value of homes near foreclosed properties falls faster than the market as a whole, until so many homes are foreclosed that average property prices fall to the level of foreclosures. That, in turn, leaves more homeowners deeper in negative equity, saddled with mortgages that vastly exceed the value of their homes. NVAR reckons that as many as a quarter of those who suffer foreclosure do so by choice, to escape such a trap. Locals swap stories of cunning borrowers who buy second homes for a song before deliberately defaulting on their first mortgages.

当房地产崩盘普遍成拉斯维加斯这样，美国内华达州房地产经纪人协会（NVAR）前会长Devin赖斯解释道，就要命了。内华达大学的纳赛尔丹尼施维尔发现，拉斯维加斯附近被取消赎回权的住宅的物业价值下降的比整个市场要快，而众多住宅都被取消赎回权以后，平均房产价格也会下降到这个水平。这反过来会导致更多产业主陷入负资产抵押，背负大大超过其房屋价值的按揭贷款。据NVAR估计，多达四分之一的人为了躲避这样的陷阱自己选择放弃赎回权。当地人互授机宜——狡猾的借款人，在故意拖欠他们的第一批抵押贷款之前先买第二套住房。

This sort of downward spiral, in turn, has a dire effect on local governments, which tend to rely on property taxes for much of their revenue. Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, expects its take from property taxes will fall by over a fifth this year. The problem is all the more severe, says Susan Brager, the chairman of the county commission, since demand for the services the county provides has risen amid the downturn. Local authorities also end up picking up the pieces when developers go bust or homes are abandoned, leaving fees unpaid, infrastructure to be completed and property to maintain.

这种恶性循环，反过来对惯于以房产税为主要税收的当地政府造成了可怕的影响。克拉克郡，包括拉斯维加斯，预计今年其房产税收将下降五分之一以上。问题将更严重的是，全郡委员会主席苏珊布拉杰说，由于全郡的服务需求已在低迷中上升。地方当局也停止了对开发商倒闭或家园被抛弃状况的援助，这就会遗留许多未付的费用，未完成的基础设施和待维护的房产。

All of this ripples through the local economy. The construction business, once a mainstay, has withered. Local governments are trimming their staff. Some of those who have lost their homes or jobs have moved away: the population of Nevada started falling in 2008 for the first time in decades. And even those who stick around may be infected by the surrounding gloom. Alan Swinson, a builder living in North Las Vegas, says he has struggled to keep up with his mortgage in the past and is now determined to scrimp and save all he can to ward off future calamities. One recent study found, perhaps unsurprisingly, that high levels of foreclosure tended to drag down not just investment in property but also car sales.

以上所有经由地方经济传导都会引起波动。一旦主要支撑建设业不景气，地方政府就会削减员工。那些失去了家园或工作的人陆续搬走：几十年来，首次从2008年开始，内华达的人口出现了下降。即使是那些留守的也被暗淡的周围感染。艾伦斯温森，在北拉斯维加斯的一个建设工，说他此前一直在努力偿还他的按揭，现在则决定尽可能的厉行节约来抵御未来的灾难。最近的一项研究发现，这也许毫不奇怪，被取消赎回权的住宅过多不只对投资房产造成不良影响，也包括汽车的销售。

The knock-on effects go further, argues Terrie D’Antonio, the head of Help of Southern Nevada, a charity. Moving house can cut people off from their friends, churches, schools and community groups. Many have lost their homes because they have lost their jobs. All this leaves them isolated and depressed. And that can lead to drug and alcohol abuse, domestic violence, juvenile delinquency and so on. The number of people turning to Help about all these problems has jumped in recent years, Ms D’Antonio says. A 2009 survey of Latino families around the country whose homes had been foreclosed had similar findings: amid the stress, marriages broke down; family members fell out; children’s academic performance suffered.

还有更多的连锁效应，南内华达州的一个慈善机构主席特蕾 大安东尼奥认为。搬家会切断人们与朋友，教会，学校及社区团体的联系。许多人由于失去工作而失去家园。这让他们陷入孤立和沮丧。导致会吸毒和酗酒，家庭暴力，青少年犯罪等。近几年，在这些问题上寻求帮助的人数大大上升。2009年对拉丁美洲各国家庭的调查表明，被取消房屋赎回权的家庭也有类似的困境，情绪紧张，婚姻破裂，家庭成员减少; 孩子的学业不佳。

The proliferation of foreclosures has impinged on politics, too. Local politicians all have pet schemes to pep up the property market. Democrats at both state and federal level have tried to cast themselves as friends to struggling homeowners, voting for various measures to encourage forbearance by banks and tide over borrowers in arrears. Shelley Berkley, the Democrat who represents Las Vegas in Congress, huffs and puffs about Republican plans to shelve such schemes: “Talk about kicking people when they’re down!” But Republicans in districts with lots of foreclosures are more sympathetic to the over-indebted than the party as a whole. Joe Heck, the Republican who represents many of the city’s suburbs, recently cast the sole Republican vote to preserve one of the programmes Ms Berkley is so worried about. His predecessor, Dina Titus, a Democrat, was booted out of office last year amid anger about the state of the economy—yet another victim of America’s housing bust.

越来越多取消抵押品赎回权的危害也已经延伸到政治。当地政治家都计划振兴房地产市场。州和联邦一级的民主党人试图像对待朋友一样对待陷入困境的房主由投票出台各种措施鼓励银行延期偿付，来帮助欠债的借款人度过难关。雪莱伯克利，议会中代表拉斯维加斯的民主党人，对共和党人打算搁置这些方案的计划十分愤慨：竟然想着落井下石！但是，在许多止赎情况严重的地区的共和党人，比党内总体对过度负债者表现出了更多的同情。乔 海科，城郊共和党的代表，最近投票要求保留伯克利很担心的一个方案。他的前任民主党人士迪那提多，由于去年受恶劣经济状态的影响而被解雇，也算是美国房地产泡沫的另一类受害者。