经济学人下载:中国人口,出乎意料的人口危机

China's population中国人口
The most surprising demographic crisis出乎意料的人口危机
A new census raises questions about the future of China’s one-child policy
新的人口普查结果对中国独生子女政策的未来提出了质疑

DOES China have enough people? The question might seem absurd. The country has long been famous both for having the world’s largest population and for having taken draconian measures to restrain its growth. Though many people, Chinese and outsiders alike, have looked aghast at the brutal and coercive excesses of the one-child policy, there has also often been a grudging acknowledgment that China needed to do something to keep its vast numbers in check.

中国人够多吗？这个问题够傻的。这个国家一直以来都因为它居于世界首位的庞大人口以及为了控制人口增长而实行的严格政策而享有盛名。尽管许多中国人以及外国人对这项独生子女政策的不讲理以及高压手段瞠目结舌，最终他们还是勉强承认中国需要这项政策来控制庞大的人口。

But new census figures bolster claims made in the past few years that China is suffering from a demographic problem of a different sort: too low a birth rate. The latest numbers, released on April 28th and based on the nationwide census conducted last year, show a total population for mainland China of 1.34 billion. They also reveal a steep decline in the average annual population growth rate, down to 0.57% in 2000-10, half the rate of 1.07% in the previous decade. The data imply that the total fertility rate, which is the number of children a woman of child-bearing age can expect to have, on average, during her lifetime, may now be just 1.4, far below the “replacement rate” of 2.1, which eventually leads to the population stabilising.

但是新的全国人口普查数据却证实了过去几年关于中国面临一个截然不同的人口危机的断言，即中国的人口出生率过低。刚于4月28日发布的数据（根据去年进行的全国人口普查结果）显示，中国大陆拥有13亿4千万人口。而年均人口增长率的巨幅下降也跃然纸上：中国年均人口增长率在2000到2010这个10年的区间中下降到了0.57%， 是1990-2000这10年的一半。这份数据显示总生育率，也就是一位孕龄女性在其一生将平均会有1.4个孩子，远远低于2.1的人口更替水平，而人口更替水平是维持人口稳定的标准。

Slower growth is matched by a dramatic ageing of the population. People above the age of 60 now represent 13.3% of the total, up from 10.3% in 2000 (see chart). In the same period, those under the age of 14 declined from 23% to 17%. A continuation of these trends will place ever greater burdens on the working young who must support their elderly kin, as well as on government-run pension and health-care systems. China’s great “demographic dividend” (a rising share of working-age adults) is almost over.

In addition to skewing the country’s age distribution, the one-child policy has probably exacerbated its dire gender imbalance. Many more baby boys are born in China than baby girls. China is not unique in this; other countries, notably India, have encountered similar problems without coercive population controls. But Chinese officials do not dispute that the one-child policy has played a role. China’s strong cultural imperative for male offspring has led many families to do whatever they must to ensure that their one permissible child is a son. In the earliest days of the one-child policy, this sometimes meant female infanticide. As ultrasound technology spread, sex-selective abortions became widespread.

独生子女政策带来的不仅仅是人口年龄分布倾斜，还很可能加剧了中国严重的性别比例失调。在中国，男婴比女婴更多。而在这一点上中国并不孤单；其他国家，尤其是印度，也遇到了类似的问题，然而印度并没有强制性控制人口。但是中国官员不容争辩的强调独生子女政策有重要作用。中国重视男性子嗣的深远文化传统令千万家庭想尽一切办法保证这唯一孩子是个男孩。而超声波技术的普及也使得具有性别歧视意味的堕胎更加普遍。