经济学人下载:美国驻日军队,又一年的迷失

Exactly a year ago both allies agreed to push ahead with the plan to shut down the Futenma airbase in a dangerously overcrowded part of Okinawa and rebuild it in a less populated area, by the beach at Henoko (see map). They also aimed to move thousands of marines and their families to the American territory of Guam, mostly paid for by Japan. Five days later Yukio Hatoyama, Japan’s then prime minister, resigned, in part because of his broken promise to the people of Okinawa to move the base off the island altogether.

一年之前，双方盟友同意督促关闭位于冲绳岛人口极度密集地区的普天间（Futenma）军事基地的计划，而在人口较少的边野古（Henoko）海岸线重新修建一个（见图）。同时他们旨在让数千海军及其家属撤向美国关岛（Guam），这一行动绝大多数费用由日本支付。五天后，当时的日本首相鸠山由纪夫（Yukio Hatoyama）辞职，部分原因就是他没有履行与冲绳居民把军事基地完全搬离该岛的承诺。

Today the two sides are no closer to implementing the plan than they were on the day it was signed. Okinawans still fiercely oppose it, despite collusion by American and Japanese officials and politicians to put as rosy a spin on the details as possible.

比起签订计划的时候，现在的双方在实现计划上显得貌合神离。尽管美国和日本官员与政治家尽可能互相在细节上周旋，冲绳居民仍然强烈反对这一计划。

For instance, the WikiLeaks cables show that the number of marines and their dependents slated for removal to Guam has been inflated in order to soften opposition. Last year’s agreement mentions the removal of about 8,000 marines and 9,000 dependents. But an American embassy cable in 2009 says that when the plan was formulated in 2006, “both the 8,000 and 9,000 numbers were deliberately maximised to optimise political value in Japan.” Okinawa officials suspect that the number of Guam-bound marines may be as few as 3,000—if they go at all.

比方说，维基解密的报告显示：为了缓和反对的气氛，即将撤向关岛的海军及其家属的数量远少于官方数字。去年的协定提到大约有8000名海军和9000名家属撤离。冲绳县官员怀疑向关岛方向撤离的海军可能也就3000人——假设他们是完全撤离。

When it came to power in 2009, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, which had opposed the relocation plan in opposition, came under intense pressure from Washington to push ahead with it. American officials urged the new government not to discuss alternatives in public, warning of a strong American reaction if it did, according to WikiLeaks. Yet this month three senators including Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and John McCain, the committee’s ranking Republican, went public with their own alternative, describing the current Futenma relocation plan as “unrealistic, unworkable and unaffordable”. In Japan their views have caused a stir.

当计划在2009年实行时，当时的执政党为反对迁移基地计划的日本民主党，该党感受到华盛顿方面对推行这一计划的巨大压力。根据维基解密，美国官员催促日本政府不要公开讨论备选方案，并且警告日本如果公开讨论那么美国就会“大动作”。 然而本月，三名参议员包括参议员军事委员会主席卡尔??列文（Carl Levin）和委员会的资深共和党约翰??麦凯恩（John McCain）公开了他们的备选方案，这个方案把普天间迁移计划描述为“不现实、没作用并且负担不起”的计划。在日本，他们的观点引起了轰动。