经济学人下载:世界经济增长放缓,中国从中受益

The “flash” causing the biggest splash this week was, however, not in Europe but in China. HSBC’s preliminary estimate for Chinese manufacturing fell to 51.1 (see chart), well below the long-term average of 52.3, confirming a slowdown evident in April’s industrial-production figures. The release hurt stockmarkets worldwide. In a single day the Shanghai Composite index gave up its gains for the year.

但本周引发最大哗然的却不在欧洲而在中国。恒生对中国制造业的初步预计跌至51.1，远低于52.3的长期均值，确认了四月份工业—生产数据证明的放缓。此项数据发布大挫全球股市。仅仅一日，上海综合指数便将今年升出来的又跌了回去。

This strong reaction was curious. In China, unlike the euro area or America, a slowdown is overdue. Its growth in the past two quarters was too fast to sustain, resulting in a worrisome rise in inflation. The government has been trying to slow the economy, by reining in runaway lending. The industrial slowdown is welcome evidence that these measures are working.

如此强烈的市场反应令人生疑。不似欧美，中国的放缓是早就应该有的。过往两个季度的增长过快，难以维持，导致令人担忧的通胀。当局已经努力放慢经济增长，严加管制贷款流失。工业增长放缓是这些措施生效的证据，令人欣慰。

A PMI reading above 50 indicates rising output; one of 51.1 is consistent with GDP growth of 9%, says HSBC. But the figure immediately raised fears of a much harder landing. Observers may worry that inflation has already got out of hand, forcing the government to hammer the economy to bring prices back under control. At the end of 1994, for example, China faced inflation of over 25%. In the next two years, tight macroeconomic controls knocked 4.6 percentage points off its growth rate.

恒生指出，高出50的采购经理人指数代表出口上升，而51.1与9%的GDP增幅一致。但此数字立即对经济更难着陆的担心。市场观望者可能会担心通胀已经控制不住，逼迫政府修理经济来控制物价。前车可鉴：1994年年末，中国面临着超过25%的通胀，在随后两年，紧缩的宏观经济调控硬是让增长率减去4.6个百分点。

But inflation in China is now only 5.3%. Vegetable prices have fallen, and non-food inflation may be easing. China’s inflation has proved more stubborn than expected. But growth will not have to slow by four points to quell it.

但目前中国的通胀率只是5.3%。蔬菜价格已经回落，而非食物产品的通胀情况或会缓解。中国的通胀较预期严重，但不必要砍掉4个百分点的增长来治它。