经济学人下载:美国经济总是找借口

The economy
美国经济

Excuses, excuses
总是找借口

A litany of special factors exposes the recovery’s fragility
次危机中的连环利空因素揭露美国脆弱的复苏

RECOVERIES from financial crises are usually subdued, but America’s is starting to look comatose. On May 26th the government said GDP grew by an annualised 1.8% in the first quarter, identical to its preliminary estimate. Economists had hoped for an upward revision. Worse, as signs of weakness accumulate, forecasters have trimmed estimates for the current quarter from around 3.5% they were projecting a month ago to 2.7% or less now.

金融危机后的经济复苏总是温和的，但是美国的复苏现在看上去有点疲软。在5月26日，美国政府声称在第一季度，美国的国内生产总值按年度计算增长了1.8%，这与之前的估计数字相一致。经济学家们本来希望经济增长率会有一个向上的修正。随着一系列的疲软迹象的增加，现在，经济预测员们把当前季度的经济增长估计值从上个月所预测的3.5%调整到了2.7%或者更低的数字。

Last December an agreement between Barack Obama and the Republicans to extend George Bush’s tax cuts and enact new ones led to forecasts of 3% to 4% growth this year. But the new consensus rate of 2.6%, for a recovery now two years old, is barely above America’s long-term potential and scarcely enough to bring unemployment down. To be sure, the post-crisis imperative for banks and households to reduce their debt meant a V-shaped rebound was never on the cards. Even so, this is a terrible performance.

去年12月，奥巴马和共和党人士之间在关于延长小布什的税收减免和颁布新的减税政策的事项上达成了一致，这使得人们对今年的经济增长有了3%到4%的预测。但是，近期的被公认的2.6的增长率几乎不能显示美国的长期增长潜力，这也不足以使失业率下降，因为到现在，复苏已经维持了两年之久。可以肯定的是，后经济危机迫使银行和家庭降低自身的负债，这意味着v字型的经济反弹是不可能发生的。