经济学人下载:美国经济总是找借口

Economists have found themselves repeatedly making excuses. First it was the snowstorms. Then it was Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster which crimped the supply of parts to car assembly plants in America. Then, as the snow melted, floods ravaged Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, and tornadoes battered Alabama and Missouri. America has suffered five incidents of extreme weather this year, each inflicting at least $1 billion in damage.

经济学家们发现自己在不断地为自己的错误预测寻找托词。第一次推脱给了暴风雪。之后又推脱给了创伤美国汽车装配工厂零件供给的日本的地震、海啸以及核泄漏事故。再者，由于冰雪的融化，洪水又在阿肯色州、密西西比州、密苏里州和田纳西州肆虐。今年，美国经济在五场极端气候事件中受创，每一次都至少造成了10亿美元的损失。

The most important special factor has been petrol. Prices jumped from $3 per gallon at the end of December to $3.90 in early May. That has siphoned off much of the purchasing power that consumers should have extracted from December’s tax agreement and subsequent gains in employment. Total consumer spending rose at just a 6.7% annual rate in the three months to the end of April, but most of that increase was eaten up by inflation. Real spending grew by a paltry 2.2%.

对经济来说，最重要的次危机因素一直是石油。石油价格从去年12月末的3美元一加仑一直涨到了今年5月前期的3.9美元一加仑。油价的上涨摄取了绝大多数消费者原本可以从12月的减税政策以及之后再就业的收益中汲取的购买力。在直到4月底的3个月中，全社会的消费者支出刚好以年增长率计算增长了6.7%，但是这次增长的多数被通胀吞噬了。真实的消费支出的增长不足2.2%。

Still, Wall Street expects the economy to perk up in coming months as those special factors begin to fade. Petrol prices have slipped in the past three weeks as monetary policy has tightened in emerging markets. Employment seems still to be rising, albeit at a slower rate. (May figures were to be released after The Economist went to press.) And rebuilding after the floods and tornadoes may deliver a fillip in the second half of the year.

由于这些次危机的不利因素开始消失，华尔街还是期望在接下来的几个月中，经济会活跃起来。在过去的三周中，由于新兴市场中所实行的货币紧缩政策，石油的价格下滑了。就业似乎还在上涨，即便是以缓慢的速度。（在经济学人进行采访后，将会公布5月的数据）洪水和龙卷风过去之后的重建工作可能在下半年中给经济带来一个刺激。

Yet if one-offs can so easily depress growth, that only underlines how fragile the economy’s underpinnings are. More evidence of that fragility came in the GDP report’s sharp downward revisions to households’ real after-tax incomes in late 2010 and early 2011. It now appears that consumers have maintained their sluggish pace of spending only by saving less. Since GDP measured by income should equal GDP measured by spending, the poor income data suggest the GDP figures may have to be revised down.

然而，如果突发事件能如此轻而易举地压制增长，这只是凸显了美国的经济基础是如此的脆弱。在2010年末和2011年初，在国民生产总值报告中对家庭实际税后收入的急剧下调，为这种脆弱提供了更多的证据。现在，消费者们似乎在通过减少储蓄来维持他们增长迟缓的消费步伐。由于用收入法来计算GDP和用支出法来计算GDP应该得到相等的结果，所以，疲软的收入数据意味着GDP可能不得不向下调整。