经济学人下载:共和党党内提名,表演正当时

Mr Romney’s problem is that he pioneered in Massachusetts a version of the hated Obamacare the Republicans vow to repeal. Mr Huntsman’s is that he accepted Mr Obama’s offer of being ambassador to China and said nice things about his boss. More troubling to the Republican base are the support he expressed for the president’s economic stimulus package in 2009, his moderate position on civil unions for gay couples and his participation, when governor, in a regional cap-and-trade scheme. Nate Silver, a polling analyst for the New York Times, argues that none of the other contenders had adopted so many moderate positions, and that this put the former ambassador’s chances of winning the nomination “near zero”.

罗姆尼的问题在于他曾在马萨诸塞州倡导奥巴马推行的医改政策，而这一政策恰恰是共和党人发誓要根除的眼中钉。而洪博培的问题则在于他曾接受奥巴马总统的任命担任美国驻华大使，并且对奥巴马总统这位老板极尽溢美之词。洪博培曾公开支持奥巴马总统于2009年提出的一揽子经济刺激计划，对于同性夫妻同居一事采取温和态度，时任犹他州州长之时参与了地区总量管制和交易规则的推行，这些都令共和党恼怒不已。纽约时报民调专家内特??希尔表示：没有哪位提名竞争者采取了如此之多的温和态度，这样一来，这位前大使赢得党内提名的可能性“几乎为零”。

Messrs Romney, Pawlenty and Huntsman are seen as candidates who, if they could win the nomination, stand a fair chance of doing well against Mr Obama. Others might be called the insurgents—those with less appeal to the mainstream voter but eager followers in the base. The best-known of these is Sarah Palin. Whereas only 32% of Americans have heard of Mr Huntsman, says Pew, the former governor of Alaska is now familiar to a whopping 97% of Americans.

罗姆尼、普兰提和洪博培这三位候选人，不论哪一位赢得党内提名，都将在明年的总统选举中与奥巴马旗鼓相当。其他候选人或许可以称之为捣乱分子-这些人得不到主流投票者的支持，但是在共和党铁杆追随者中却有很大的号召力。其中最著名的当数萨拉??佩林。据皮尤研究中心提供的数据，这位前阿拉斯加州长在全美知名度高达97%，而洪博培却只有32%。

Since being chosen as Mr McCain’s running-mate in 2008, Mrs Palin has courted publicity tirelessly, most recently with the “One Nation” bus tour she launched in Washington, DC, on Memorial Day. Not all the publicity has been favourable, however. For example, she was widely mocked after giving a mangled account in Boston of Paul Revere’s famous ride and refusing to admit her mistake.

自2008年成为麦凯恩的竞选伙伴起，佩林女士便孜孜不倦的进行宣传造势活动，最近一次宣传活动是在阵亡将士纪念日这一天，她在华盛顿特区发起的名为“同一个国家”的公车巡游活动。然而并非所有的宣传活动都受到民众欢迎。举例来说，有一次她因为歪解著名的保罗??里维尔夜骑的故事而成为了众人的笑柄，她本人则拒绝承认错误。

“Reveregate” exemplifies Mrs Palin’s problem as a candidate. Nobody knows whether she seriously intends to join the race or, if she does, how seriously to take her. Although she has fiercely loyal fans (some of whom apparently tampered with Wikipedia to support her revisionist version of Revere’s ride), she inspires fierce dislike as well. The Washington Post/ABC poll found two out of three Americans (including 42% of Republican voters) saying they would definitely not vote for her—and more than six out of ten said she was not qualified to be president.

“里维尔门”事件说明了佩林女士作为候选人的问题所在。没有人知道她是否是认真地打算参加选举，抑或她准备拿出多少诚意来参加选举。尽管她拥有很多铁杆支持者（有些人甚至明目张胆地篡改维基百科来粉饰她对保罗??里维尔夜骑故事的歪解），但是人们还是不怎么喜欢她。据华盛顿邮报和美国广播公司所做的民意测验，三分之二的美国人（包括42%的共和党支持者）表示他们决不会投票给她，超过十分之六的美国人认为她不够格做美国总统。