经济学人下载:中国城镇化,你生活在哪里?

Prospects for reform of the hukou system are only slightly better. Both Chengdu and Chongqing have been experimenting with this. They have declared that holders of rural hukou in the countryside surrounding these cities can move into urban areas and enjoy the same welfare benefits as their urban counterparts without giving up their land entitlements. This was an important step. Though the hukou divide is widely resented, peasants have often been reluctant to give up their rural status for fear of losing their land, as well as the added benefit in the countryside of being able to have two children rather than one. In effect, Chongqing and Chengdu have created a new class of urban residents who enjoy the best of both worlds. But grand plans for hukou reform have fallen by the wayside before as officials tot up the price. The cities of Guangzhou and Zhengzhou abandoned reform efforts several years ago because of worries about the cost.

对户口体制的改革的前景看上去也只是稍微好一点。成都和重庆都已经对此进行了实践。他们宣称，这些城市周边乡下的农村户口持有人能够移居到城镇地区，并享受和他们的城镇居民同等的福利，而不用放弃他们的土地所有权。这是重要的一步。尽管户口上的待遇差别受到普遍的唾弃，农民通常都因为对失去他们土地的担心，同样还有在乡里能够生育2个而不是1个小孩的额外的好处而不情愿放弃他们的农业户口。在实施中，重庆和成都创造了一种享受两个世界的好处的新型城镇居民阶层。但是对户口体制的改革的大计划在政府官员合计了代价之前是被搁置一旁的。广州市和深圳市在数年前就因为担心成本而放弃了改革的努力。

Chongqing’s plans are ambitious. Local officials estimate the cost of converting 3m people at around 200 billion yuan ($30 billion). But the municipality says it wants to double the number of urban hukou holders by turning 10m of its rural citizens (some of whom already live in urban areas) into card-carrying urbanites over the next ten years. It has made a rapid start. Since it relaxed its policy in August last year it has given urban hukou to more than 1.7m people. There are conditions: they must have been working in urban areas for at least three years, or for five years if they want to transfer their hukou to the centre of Chongqing.

重庆的计划可谓踌躇满志。当地政府估计将300万人进行转化的成本约为2千亿元（合$300亿美元）。但是直辖市政府说将会在接下来的10年通过将其100万农村居民（他们中的有些人已经居住在城镇地区了）转变为持卡的城镇居民倍增城镇户口的持有人数。这一计划起步迅捷。自去年8月发布政策起，已经签发城镇户口的人数就超过170万人。这里是有些限制条件的：他们必须过去至少3年在城镇地区工作，将户口迁到重庆中心区则需要至少5年。

The reform remains only partial. The benefits of being a Chongqing urbanite still cannot be transferred to any other part of the country. And if implementing such measures nationwide means raising more taxes, urbanites will dig in their heels. Local governments “don’t really have the incentives and they don’t have the resources” to encourage greater integration of migrants into urban life, says the World Bank’s Mr Kuijs.

这一改革仍然只在单一层面展开。成为重庆城镇人的好处仍然不能随迁到全国的其他区域。而在全国范围内实现这些措施意味着加征赋税，城镇居民将会大跺其脚。当地政府“并不真正有这些激励机制，也没有资源”来鼓励对更多的民工进入城镇生活的整合。世界银行的Kuijs先生说。

Although Chinese officials define the population as being already nearly 50% urban, the number of urban hukou holders is only around 35%. Zhang Zheng of Peking University says many of those who have moved to urban areas in recent years are wrongly seen as permanent migrants. Having reached their 30s or 40s, when they can no longer do mind-numbing, fast-paced and finicky work on production lines, they will often go back to the countryside. Late last year the National Bureau of Statistics asked rural hukou holders in the north-eastern province of Jilin whether they wanted to switch to urban status. “The results were surprising,” one of the bureau’s researchers wrote. The majority said no, and most young people who had moved to urban areas said they wanted to go back to the countryside when they got older.

尽管中国政府界定人口已经达到接近50%城镇化，农村户口的持有者数量仅有约35%。北京大学的Zhang Zheng说，最近这些年移居到城镇地区的许多人都被错误的视为永久民工。他们年纪到了30或者40多岁时，就不会再在生产线上做头脑简单、节奏快而细琐的工作。他们通常都会回到乡下。去年下半年国家统计局询问东北省份吉林的农村户口持有人是否愿意转换成城镇户口。“结果令人吃惊”，统计局的一位研究人员写到。大多数都说“不”，大多数迁移到城镇地区的年轻人说他们想年纪大一点回到乡下的。