经济学人下载:微软,中年忧郁症

As IBM’s experience shows, rejuvenation in the tech world is possible. And some observers see encouraging glimmers of progress at Microsoft. Sarah Rotman Epps of Forrester, a research firm, reckons that Windows 8, a forthcoming version of Microsoft’s operating system, could be a serious competitor to Google’s Android on tablet computers if the company can get it to market next year. Microsoft is also in far better shape financially than IBM was at its nadir, so it can afford to splash out on acquisitions such as its recent $8.5 billion purchase of Skype, an internet-phone and video-calling service.

IBM的经验证明，在科技世界重新焕发青春是可能的。一些观察者在微软身上看到了些许鼓舞人心的进步。市场研究Forrester公司的莎拉??罗特曼??埃普斯(Sarah Rotman Epps)认为如果微软能让接下来的新操作系统Windows8在明年上市，那么它很可能在平板电脑领域与谷歌的安卓系统一决高。与IBM出于最低点时的金融构架相比，微软的要好得多，所以它才可以花大价钱进行收购，比如最近它用85亿美元收购了网络电话及视频服务提供商Skype公司。

That bet and an alliance with Nokia in mobile phones (putting the phone version of Windows into the big but troubled Finnish firm’s devices) show that Microsoft is trying to bulk up in promising areas. Yet sceptics worry that such initiatives are not the product of an overarching strategic vision, but are instead tactical moves designed to placate critics who fear Microsoft is drifting downwards. David Einhorn, a prominent hedge-fund manager whose fund holds shares in Microsoft, has publicly called for a change at the top of the firm, arguing that Mr Ballmer is “stuck in the past”. So far, the company’s board, chaired by Mr Gates, has backed its chief executive. But if IBM’s history is a guide, Microsoft may yet end up jettisoning its leader.

这笔赌注再加上在移动电话领域同诺基亚合作（把Windows的手机版本装进诺基亚手机，诺基亚这家规模很大的芬兰公司也遭遇困难）证明微软正力图在有前途的领域积累力量。但是怀疑者担心这种举动不是出于一个总体的战略，而是为了抚慰担心微软正走下坡路的批评者的巧妙举措。颇有影响力的对冲基金经理人大卫??埃因霍温（David Einhorn）公开呼吁微软上层改朝换代，称鲍尔温先生“固步自封”，埃因霍温先生的基金拥有微软的股份。到目前为止，由盖茨先生任主席的董事会仍支持他们的总裁。但若以IBM的历史为鉴，那么微软也许最终仍然会抛弃它的领导者。