经济学人下载:美国经济,全是借口

The economy 美国经济

Excuses, excuses 全是借口

A litany of special factors exposes the recovery’s fragility
一长串的特殊原因暴露出经济恢复十分脆弱

Jun 2nd 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition

               
RECOVERIES from financial crises are usually subdued, but America’s is starting to look comatose. On May 26th the government said GDP grew by an annualised 1.8% in the first quarter, identical to its preliminary estimate. Economists had hoped for an upward revision. Worse, as signs of weakness accumulate, forecasters have trimmed estimates for the current quarter from around 3.5% they were projecting a month ago to 2.7% or less now.

从金融危机中恢复过来通常是一个缓慢而艰难的过程，但美国的恢复进程似乎就要陷入休克。5月26日，政府说一季度GDP按年增长率来计算增长了1.8%，与初始估算相符。经济学家们曾经希望实际情况可以更加乐观。更糟糕的是，由于经济疲软的迹象累加，预测者从一开始就把对当前季度的预测从一个月前的3.5%左右将到了2.7%,现在可能会更少。

Last December an agreement between Barack Obama and the Republicans to extend George Bush’s tax cuts and enact new ones led to forecasts of 3% to 4% growth this year. But the new consensus rate of 2.6%, for a recovery now two years old, is barely above America’s long-term potential and scarcely enough to bring unemployment down. To be sure, the post-crisis imperative for banks and households to reduce their debt meant a V-shaped rebound was never on the cards. Even so, this is a terrible performance.

去年12月，奥巴马与共和党达成协议延长小布什的税收减免政策，并颁布了新的政策，这使得专家对今年经济增长的预测达到3％－4％。但如今经济恢复已经长达两年之久，公认的增长率为2.6%。这一增长率仅仅略高于美国的长期潜能，但若想降低失业率，还是力道不足。当然，对于银行以及家庭来说，后危机时代最重要的事即减少债务，这意味着经济V型的回升几乎不可能。即便是这样，现在的状况也算是糟糕的了。