经济学人下载:最后一代有人驾驶战斗机

Mr Burbage rejects the assumption that the F-35 will cost a third more to sustain than the F-16s and F-18s it is replacing. He says that if you applied the same measures to legacy fighters the cost would be up to $3 trillion. He also remains convinced that the cost-saving ideas that first gave birth to the F-35 remain valid—commonality of spares, quick and easy replacement of components, advanced diagnostics and so on. Together they add up to a plane that will be twice as reliable as its predecessors and require fewer hands to maintain. Yet none of these benefits has been factored in because none has yet been proven.

Burbage并不同意F-35将比被其取代的F-16和F-18多出三分之一费用这种假设。他说如果你用同样的标准衡量legacy战机，相关费用将高达3万亿美元。他还确信，节约成本是制造F-35的初衷，这个想法仍然靠谱-通用的配件，更换既快捷又简单的零部件，以及先进的故障诊断系统等等。集这些优点于一身的飞机的可靠性将高出以前的飞机一倍，而且需要更少的人员去维护。不过这些益处因为尚未得到证实，所以都没有被考虑进去。

Even if Mr Burbage is too sanguine, the F-35 is in no imminent danger. Its position is strengthened by two inarguable propositions. The first is that many of the current generation of fighters are approaching 30 years in service and must soon be replaced. The second is that because the F-35 was designed to replace so many types of aircraft, it has, in effect, a monopolist’s grip on the future fighter market.

即使burbage的看法过于乐观，F-35也没有迫在眉睫的危险。有两个无可争议的观点使它的地位反而更加巩固了。一是多数老一代的战斗机的服役年限已接近30年，必须尽快更新换代。二是因为设计F-35的目的是为了取代多种型号的战机，它事实上在未来的战斗机市场上占据着垄断地位。

Even if America and some of its NATO allies cut their orders, Lockheed Martin is confident that the numbers will be more than made up by countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. All these nations are rich and nervous of Beijing. Mr Burbage draws comparison with the F-16, of which more than 4,500 will be built over its long life.

即使美国及其一些北约盟友减少订单数量，Lockheed Martin也深信有日本、韩国、新加坡和台湾这些买家，飞机的销量只会多不会少，因为这些国家不差钱，对中国又颇为忌惮。Burbage将F-16引以为例，该型号飞机一共将出厂4500多架，可谓经久不衰。

The future belongs to the drones
未来属于无人战机

But the longer-term outlook for the F-35 is uncertain. Its costly capabilities are intended to make it effective against the air defences of a sophisticated enemy, such as China. But the growing vulnerability of American aircraft carriers to Chinese missiles will mean operating from well beyond the F-35’s 600-mile (1,000km) range.

然而F-35的长期前景还不明朗。F-35不惜重金打造作战性能的目的是让飞机在对付像中国这样老辣的敌人时能够大显身手，但是在中国导弹面前，美国的航空母舰越来越不堪一击，这意味着航母必须保持与攻击目标间的距离，其长度远远超过F-35战机600英里（1000公里）的可持续飞行距离。

Some military strategists already think that the job the F-35 is meant to do can be better handled by cruise missiles and remotely piloted drones. In many roles, unmanned planes are more efficient: they carry neither a bulky pilot nor the kit that keeps him alive, which means they can both turn faster and be stealthier. And if they are shot down, no one dies. Even the F-35’s champions concede that it will probably be the last manned strike fighter aircraft the West will build.

一些军事战略家认为F-35所从事的任务可以由巡航导弹和远程控制无人机更好地完成。在许多情况下，无人机的效率更高：他们既不用携带大块头的飞行员，也不用安装维持飞行员生命的仪器，也就是说他们的飞行速度更快，隐身能力更强。如果被击落，也没有人员伤亡。即使是F-35的支持者也承认它可能会是西方国家生产的最后一代有人驾驶战斗机了。