经济学人下载:最后一代有人驾驶战斗机

In January this year Mr Gates made a series of further announcements which included spending another $4.6 billion on development, slowing down initial production to avoid building aircraft that would later have to be expensively upgraded and putting the marines’ STOVL version on two-year “probation” because of problems with the aircraft’s structure and propulsion system. Condemning the failure to get costs under control, which he blamed partly on the lack of financial discipline in the defence department during George Bush’s presidency and partly on execution failures by Lockheed Martin and its partners, Mr Gates said that “the culture of endless money that has taken hold must be replaced by a culture of restraint”.

今年一月份，盖茨宣布将要采取一系列更加深入的措施，包括追加46亿美元的研发经费，放缓飞机初次投产的进度，以避免生产出来的飞机日后又要花大价钱来改造升级，并且将配备给海军陆战队的STOVL版战机推迟两年交付，因为飞机本身的构造和推进系统还存在问题。盖茨对成本失控极为不满，他认为一部分原因是布什任内的国防部松散的财政管理，另一部分原因是Lockheed Martin及其合作伙伴的碌碌无为。盖茨说“花钱无度的现象愈演愈烈，必须刹住这种风气，用节制消费的观念取而代之。

The latest cost estimates from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), published in May to coincide with a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the F-35 programme, were shocking. The average price of each plane in “then-year” dollars had risen from $69m in 2001 to $133m today. Adding in $56.4 billion of development costs, the price rises from $81m to $156m. The GAO report concluded that since 2007 development costs had risen by 26% and the timetable had slipped by five years. Mr Gates’s 2010 restructuring helped. But still, “after more than nine years in development and four in production, the JSF programme has not fully demonstrated that the aircraft design is stable, manufacturing processes are mature and the system is reliable”. Apart from the STOVL version’s problems, the biggest issue was integrating and testing the software that runs the aircraft’s electronics and sensors. At the hearing, Senator John McCain described it as “a train wreck” and accused Lockheed Martin of doing “an abysmal job”.

在参议院军事委员会举行关于F-35项目听证会的同时，联邦政府会计总署（GAO）发布了最新的成本评估报告，结果令人震惊。每架飞机的均价（按当时的标准）已经从2001年的6900万美元涨到了现在的1.33亿美元。如果将564亿美元的研发费用也算进去，飞机的造价就从8100万美元变为现在的1.56亿美元。GAO的报告显示，自2007年起，研发费用上升了26%，而时间也过去了五年之久。2010年盖茨的重组计划虽有所成效，但“在历经了九年多的研发，四年多的投产后，JSF项目仍未充分表现出飞机设计的稳定性，制造方法的成熟度和系统的可靠性。”除了STOVL版本存在的问题之外，最棘手的事情是整合及测试控制飞机电子设备和传感装置的软件。在听证会上，参议员John McCain把软件形容为“就像一辆破火车”，并指责Lockheed Marting公司干的“太差劲了”。

What horrified the senators most was not the cost of buying F-35s but the cost of operating and supporting them: $1 trillion over the plane’s lifetime. Mr McCain described that estimate as “jaw-dropping”. The Pentagon guesses that it will cost a third more to run the F-35 than the aircraft it is replacing. Ashton Carter, the defence-acquisition chief, calls this “unacceptable and unaffordable”, and vows to trim it. A sceptical Mr McCain says he wants the Pentagon to examine alternatives to the F-35, should Mr Carter not succeed.

让参议员们最担心的还不是购买F-35的费用，而是运行和维护他们的费用：在飞机的整个寿命里，各种费用会达到一万亿美元。McCain表示这个估算出来的数字“令人惊愕”。五角大楼猜测，使用F-35要比使用那些被其取代的飞机多出三分之一的开销。主管国防部采购事宜的Ashton Carter称这是“无法接受而且负担不起的”，并誓要把费用降下来。对此表示怀疑的McCain说，如果Carter不成功的话，他希望五角大楼考虑除F-35以外的其他选择。

How worried should Lockheed Martin be? The F-35 is the biggest biscuit in its barrel, by far. And it is not only Mr McCain who is seeking to knock a few chocolate chips out of it. The bipartisan fiscal responsibility and reform commission appointed by Mr Obama last year said that not all military aircraft need to be stealthy. It suggested cancelling the STOVL version of the F-35 and cutting the rest of its order by half, while buying cheaper F-16s and F-18s to keep numbers up. If America decided it could live with such a “high-low” mix, foreign customers might follow suit.

Lockheed Martin公司该有多么不安呢？F-35是其目前为止接手的最大一笔生意，想找机会给这单买卖把把脉的不只是McCain一个人。去年奥巴马任命的由两党共同组建的财政问责和改革委员会表示并非所有军用飞机都须具有隐身能力，它的建议是取消STOVL版本，并将剩余的F-35订单减少一半，同时购买价格较低的F-16和F-18来保证战机的数量。如果美国认为可以采用这种高低端战机混搭的方式，那么国外的客户很可能也如此效仿。