经济学人下载:最后一代有人驾驶战斗机

After beating a Boeing design that was deemed technically riskier, Lockheed Martin signed the contract with the Department of Defence to develop the F-35 in 2001. It was an ambitious undertaking. The aim was to reap huge efficiency gains by replacing nearly all of America’s ageing tactical aircraft (the air force’s F-16s and A-10s; the navy’s A/F-18s and the marines’ AV8B jump jets) with three variants of one basic design. There would be a conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) version for the air force, a short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) version for the marines and a beefier carrier version for the navy.

在击败了技术上风险较大的波音公司的设计方案后，Lockheed Martin在2001年与美国国防部签署了研发F-35的合同。这是一项野心勃勃的计划，其目标是用基于相同设计原理的三种版本的F-35取代美国所有已经老化的战术飞机（包括空军的F-16和A-10战斗机；海军的A/F-18战斗机及海军陆战队的AV8B喷气式飞机），从而大大提高作战效率。空军将配备以常规方式起降的战机版本（CTOL），海军陆战队将装备短距离起飞和垂直降落版战机，而海军配备的是加大型运输机版本。

With radar-beating stealth capability and a suite of advanced software and sensors, the F-35 would be a “fifth generation” fighter, far more effective in both its primary ground-attack role and air defence than “legacy” aircraft. (Respectively eight times and four times better, say Lockheed Martin executives, though by what measure is anyone’s guess.)

F-35具有躲避雷达跟踪的功能，并配有一套先进的软件和感应装置，它将成为“第五代战斗机”，无论是主要的地面打击能力还是空中防御能力，F-35的效率都要远高于“leagcy”战机。（据Lockheed Martin公司的管理层说，F-35在这两方面的性能分别提升了八倍和四倍，尽管大家都不清楚这个结论是基于什么标准得出的）。

Burning banknotes
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Above all, the F-35 was meant to be affordable. Development costs would be shared across the three versions and with eight foreign partners who were also buying and helping to build the F-35. Manufacturing scale economies were assured because more than 3,000 planes were to be sold—2,443 to Uncle Sam and the rest to his NATO allies. And because 80% of the parts were common to all three versions, maintenance and logistics would be simpler and cheaper. Deliveries of operational aircraft were to begin in 2010.

最重要的是，F-35的价格并非难以承受。飞机的研发费用将由三个版本的战斗机共享，另外八个国家也会出资帮助制造和购买F-35。可以确信的是飞机将规模化生产，因为飞机的预购数量已超过3000架—美国2443架，其余的销往北约盟国。由于三个版本的机型使用的零部件有80%是可以通用的，所以维修和后勤工作会更加简单和便宜。作战飞机将于2010年开始交付使用。

That was the idea, anyway. The F-35’s critics have long argued that its performance is compromised by having to fulfil too many roles and that an over-complicated design lashed to an over-optimistic schedule was asking for trouble. In the past 18 months, as delays have mounted and costs escalated, even some of the plane’s ardent fans have become alarmed. In 2009 the Pentagon realised that a breach of the Nunn-McCurdy rules on over-budget defence-procurement programmes was inevitable, because costs would exceed the original baseline by more than 50%. An internal report declared: “Affordability is no longer embraced as a core pillar.”

说得再好，也仅仅是一些构思。F-35项目的反对者一直认为飞机会因为不得不身兼数职而导致性能大打折扣，而飞机过于复杂的设计却与过分乐观的项目进度捆绑在一起，这无疑于自讨苦吃。在过去18个月，研发进度屡次滞后，成本又不断上升，使得一些该项目的狂热粉丝也不免有所担心。2009年，五角大楼意识到违反Nunn-McCurdy条例（对超出预算的国防采购项目起限制作用）在所难免，因为项目成本将高出原标准50%多。一份内部报告指出：“成本优势已经不再被视为这个项目的核心要素。”

Anticipating the breach, in March 2010 Mr Gates restated his support for the F-35, but hit out at “unacceptable delays and cost overruns”. He said he was “fundamentally restructuring” the programme, adding more money and time for development. He also withheld $614m in performance payments to Lockheed Martin, tying its future earnings to specific criteria rather than the subjective ones that he believed had stiffed the taxpayer.

眼看着预算被超出，盖茨虽然在2010年3月重申了他对F-35项目的支持，但却严厉抨击“项目进度延后，成本超支是不可接受的”。他说他要对项目进行彻底重组，向研发投入更多的资金，给予更宽裕的时限。同时，他拒绝向Lockheed Martin公司支付6.14亿美元的绩效款，今后将根据相应的具体标准向其付款，在盖茨看来，自吹自擂似的标准已经让纳税人花了不少冤枉钱。