经济学人下载:美国经济面临二次探底?

Time for a double dip?
美国经济面临二次探底?

A lousy debt deal, rising fears of a recession, the danger of longer-term stagnation: America’s outlook is grim
面临着糟糕的负债协议，膨胀的经济恐慌，更长时间经济低迷的风险，美国经济前景黯淡

THIS ought to have been a good week for the American economy. The country’s leaders at last ended a ludicrously irresponsible bout of fiscal brinkmanship, removing the threat of global financial Armageddon by agreeing to raise the federal debt ceiling. Yet far from heaving a sigh of relief, investors are nervous. Stockmarkets around the world have tumbled (see article). On August 2nd, the day the debt deal was signed, the S&P 500 index saw its biggest one-day fall in over a year, and yields on ten-year Treasury bonds dropped to 2.6%, their lowest level in nine months, as investors sought safety.

这周这本应是美国经济不错的一周。国家领导们终于结束了财政边缘政策上的荒唐而不负责任的争斗，同意提高联邦债务上限，免除了发生金融世界大战的风险。但是投资者远没有得到宽慰，反而感到紧张。世界股市也发生震荡。8月2日，负债协议签署的那天，由于投资者寻求安全，标准普尔指数迎来一年多以来的最大单日跌幅，十年期国债收益下跌2.6%，达到9个月以来的最低水平。

It is not all to do with America: the euro zone is a mess (see article) and manufacturing everywhere seems to be slowing. But America’s prospects have suddenly darkened. Statistical revisions and some grim new figures have revealed a weaker-than-assumed recovery that has all but ground to a halt. Once stalled, an economy can easily tip back into recession, particularly if it is hit by a new shock—as America’s is about to be, thanks to a hefty dose of fiscal tightening made worse by the debt deal. The odds of a double dip over the coming year are uncomfortably high, perhaps as high as 50%.

不仅是美国，欧元区也是一片狼藉，各地制造业低迷。但是美国经济的前景突然黯淡下来。最新修改过的数据显示，经济复苏低于预期，几近停滞。经济一旦停滞，就很有可能重返衰退，受到新的冲击时尤为如此。由于美国负债协议使原本紧缩的财政更加收紧，这种冲击马上就会到来。明年美国经济二次探底的可能性高得令人不安，可能达到50%。