经济学人下载:待重头收拾旧山河

The economy’s prospects
经济前景

Waiting for the earth to open
待重头收拾旧山河

The usual accelerators of recession are absent—but so are the brakes
经济不再像往常般加速下滑——而是已经减速

Aug 27th 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC  | from the Economist print edition

HOURS after an earthquake struck America’s east coast on August 23rd, office workers were still milling around the streets of Washington, DC and New York (above), nervously waiting for aftershocks. A similar watch over the economy is now under way. The earthquake that ripped through the American economy from 2007 to 2009 is still generating tremors. The latest may be the strongest yet. Since late July stock markets in America and round the world have nosedived, fearful that America is falling back into recession and that Europe’s debt crisis will drag down its banks.
在美国东海岸8月23日的地震之后数个小时，上班族们仍在华盛顿和纽约（见上图）的街道上游荡着，惴惴不安地等待着下次余震。美国经济也正出现类似的情况。跨经2007年到2009年的美国经济大地震破坏其经济体系，并不断产生余震。或许，最后的才是最强的。自7月下旬美国股市和全球股市都遭受重创，人们担心美国经济衰退，同时也害怕欧洲的债务危机拖垮银行。

America’s economy is certainly weak. It grew at an annualised rate of just 0.4% in the first quarter and 1.3% in the second. Future revisions may push both numbers into negative territory: the economy would have already double-dipped.
美国经济确实已经很衰弱了。第一季度的经济增长只有0.4%，而第二季度则为1.3%。以后的计算修正或许会让这两个数字变为负值：美国经济已经出现二次探底。

Much of that weakness may be traced to the run-up in oil prices that followed the Libyan uprising and to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted supply chains. As both shocks receded, economic activity turned up. An index of economic reports compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy grew in July (see chart 1), though it may since have flagged again.
经济的虚弱之处大部分应归咎于原油价格的急剧增长，这是因为在利比亚起义和日本地震海啸之后，原油的供应链遭到了破坏。在这两大冲击都有所减弱后，经济活动得到了喘息之机。在芝加哥联邦储备银行编纂的一份经济报告指数显示，美国经济在7月份产生正增长（见表1），虽然它后来可能会再次陷入低迷。