经济学人下载:待重头收拾旧山河

A recession indicator compiled by Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, from (among other things) stock prices, the real short-term interest rate, credit spreads, oil prices and the yield curve—the difference between short- and long-term rates—suggests that a recession is unlikely in the next 12 months, even when the yield curve, whose behaviour has been distorted by Federal Reserve policy, is excluded.
宏观经济咨询公司编写了一项经济衰退的指标，从（多方面）股价，不动产短期利率，信用差价，油价以及收率曲线——短期与长期利率不同——可以看出，在接下来的一年中，经济衰退可能性不大，即使排除了受到美联储政策影响的收益曲线，衰退仍旧不会发生。

But Joel Prakken, the firm’s chairman, has limited confidence in that forecast. The historical data used to predict recessions in the past are less useful if a new shock cannot be offset with fiscal and monetary policy. Japan’s collapse back into recession in 1998 is a cautionary tale. The government raised the consumption tax in April 1997 in an attempt to rein in the rising debt. Two major shocks then aggravated that fiscal restraint: the Asian financial crisis, which pummelled exports, and the collapse of several big financial institutions. With interest rates already at 0.5%, monetary policy could not cushion the blow.
但是宏观咨询公司的董事长Joel Prakken对预测信心有限。如果一场新的冲击不能用财政和货币政策来抵消的话，预测过去衰退所用的历史数据现在的效用就会大大减少。日本在1998年的经济崩溃是一个劝谕。日本政府在1997年4月提升了消费税，试图控制不断增长的负债。两大冲击加重了财政紧缩的局面：重创其出口的亚洲金融危机和几家大型金融机构的倒闭。在利率已经达到0.5%的低点时，货币政策也无法和缓这种紧张局势。

Whether recession is avoided will therefore depend heavily on luck and the wisdom of policymakers. The Fed is not about to tighten monetary policy; indeed, the markets are searching for signs from Ben Bernanke, the chairman, that it may loosen policy through buying more bonds or changing the mix of its bond holdings, though they are likely to be disappointed. However, fiscal policy is likely to tighten as several fiscal measures expire, knocking some 2% off GDP from January onwards. In a speech next month President Barack Obama plans to challenge the special congressional committee now looking for $1.5 trillion in deficit cuts to supply, at the same time, some near-term fiscal stimulus. Republicans are unreceptive. Eric Cantor, their leader in the House of Representatives, recently warned against “discussions of new stimulus spending with money that we simply do not have.”
是否避免衰退因此将十分取决于运气和政策制定者的聪明才智。美联储不可能收紧货币政策；事实上，市场正在搜寻来自于美联储主席Ben Bernanke的，有关于美联储将通过买入更多债券或者改变所持债券组合的方式来放松政策的信号，然而他们很可能会失望。然而，财政政策可能会因为几项财政措施的到期而收紧，从而损失了一月以来2%的国内生产总值。在一场演讲中，奥巴马打算9月对特殊国家委员会发起挑战，而与此同时，他正在削减15亿美元赤字以实现财政刺激。共和党对此表示不会接受。众议院领袖Eric Cantor最近对"关于这种拆东墙补西墙的做法的讨论”表示了警告。

The brinkmanship that preceded the increase in the debt ceiling on August 2nd, the downgrade to America’s credit rating and the fiscal turbulence in Europe, are the sorts of things that could produce a self-fulfilling collapse in confidence. Steve Alloy, another Virginia builder, recalls how the talk of America defaulting deterred many of his customers. Then, the day after default was averted, five abruptly bought houses. Such stories may serve to concentrate minds in Congress and bring about a more rational fiscal outcome.
在8月2日增加债务限额前的紧急政策，美国的信用等级降级以及欧洲财政动乱，都可视为导致自我信心崩溃的同类事件。另一个弗吉尼亚州建筑商Steve Alloy则回想起有关美国违约的谈论使得他许多客户打消念头。然后，债务违约危机解除的第二天，有5个人于是突然购买了房屋。建筑商的故事应该要告诉国会里的那帮人，这样他们才会更集中自己的精神和才智，然后为全美的经济衰退局面带来一个更合理的财政处理结果。

Mr Cantor says constituents in his Virginia district have complained that political brinkmanship has pushed the economy to the edge of disaster. Coincidentally, they were also living next to the epicentre of the earthquake. Having lived through terrestrial upheavals, they have no appetite for the economic equivalent.
Cantor先生说，在弗吉尼亚地区的人抱怨政治性的紧急政策将美国经济推向了灾难的边缘。巧合的是，他们生活的地方也靠近地震震中区域。他们在地壳巨变中生还下来，却已无力再去面对经济上的地震。