经济学人下载:低成本航空公司能击败子弹头列车吗?

Business
商业

Transport in Japan
日本的交通

Bullet v budget
票战vs站票

Can low-cost airlines beat bullet trains?
低成本航空公司能击败子弹头列车吗？

THE world's busiest train route, and one of the busiest air routes, is between Tokyo and Osaka, Japan's two biggest metropolitan areas.
世界上最繁忙的铁路线和最繁忙的航线之一连接着日本最大的两个大都市区——东京和大阪。

On that corridor, the shinkansen, as Japan's bullet trains are known, were born in 1964.
（就是）这样一条通道在1964年见证了如日本子弹头列车一样出名的新干线系统的诞生。

They whizz 120,000 passengers a day smoothly from one place to another, on trains that leave every ten minutes.
每10分钟一班，该系统一天之内可以快速且流畅得将120,000名乘客送抵各自的目的地。

Although humans, not robots, are at the controls, the average delay is a miraculous 36 seconds.
虽然该系统由人而非机器控制，却可以将平均延迟时间控制在令人不可思议的36秒内。

To take all those passengers by air would require 667 aircraft, each with 180 seats, or five times Japan's fleet of Boeing 737s, estimates Macquarie, an investment bank.
据一家叫做麦格理的投资银行估算，如果上述乘客改乘飞机，则需动用667架180座的客机，5倍于整个日本的波音737保有量。

Undeterred, between March and August three low-cost airlines will have started operations in Japan.
即便如此，这仍未吓倒将于3月到8月份在日投入运营的三家低成本航空公司。

It would be a miracle if they could help hammer down train and plane fares in Japan, which are excruciating.
若其能冲击到日本高的离谱的火车和飞机票价的话，那（无疑）将会是个奇迹。

For example, a one-way shinkansen ticket from Tokyo to Osaka costs ￥14,000 ($170), and there are no discounts for return fares or for booking early.
例如，一张东京到大阪的新干线单程票价为14,000日元（$170），并且往返票和提起订票均不打折。

But compared with Europe and other parts of Asia, where budget airlines have quickly gained market share, in Japan the low-cost model is expected to take time to take off.
但与被低成本航空公司迅速抢占市场份额的欧洲和其他亚洲国家相比，日本廉价运输模式的施行还需时日。

There are three main reasons for that, analysts say. First, all three newcomers have established parents.
分析师们认为主要原因有三：一，即将投入运营的三家航空公司均有各自的母公司。

Peach, which started flying in March, and Air Asia Japan, which starts in August, are part-owned by ANA, one of Japan's two main carriers.
分别于3月份和8月份营业的Peach和Air Asia Japan 的股东中均有ANA（日本最大的两家运输公司之一）的影子。

Jetstar Japan, which launches operations in July, is one-third owned by Japan Airlines (JAL).
Japan Airlines (JAL)持有Jetstar Japan（将于7月份投入运营）三分之一的股份。

Such ties have usually hobbled low-cost airlines elsewhere: incumbents hate to cannibalise their own business.
像这种关系通常会阻碍其他地方低成本航空公司的的发展：虎毒不食子。

(Australia, where Qantas owns Jetstar, is an exception.) Analysts say the upstarts will thrive only if ANA and JAL step out of their way, letting them shake up the domestic tourist market.
（作为澳洲Jetstar母公司的Qantas除外）分析师们还认为，除非ANA 和 JAL让出场子，即将登台的新贵们才有可能在国内旅游市场的舞台上大显身手。

The big boys could then concentrate on long-haul and business travel.
也好让诸位前辈（更好地）专注于长途和商务旅行上面。

Second, the budget airlines may struggle to make similar profits to their lucrative low-cost counterparts in other countries because, despite deregulation, airport costs and fuel taxes in Japan remain among the highest in the world.
其次，与其他国家的同行相比，尽管日本的低成本航空公司不受政府直接管制，但高居世界前列的机场建设费和燃油税却使他们难以企及其他国家同行们的高盈利能力。

That could limit expansion, though Jetstar Japan is boldly aiming for 100 aircraft by the end of the decade, up from three at its launch.
即使从3架飞机起家的Jetstar Japan将目标大胆得订为10年内实现100架飞机保有量，但依然改变不了上述困境限制航空公司扩张的事实。

Third, it will be hard to convince finicky Japanese passengers that low fares make up for the lack of comfort and convenience they are used to.
第三，推行低廉票价难免降低早已被日本民众所习惯的乘坐舒适和便利程度，然而说服这些挑剔的乘客接受这一点却并不容易。

Jetstar and Air Asia are using Narita airport as their hub, which is expensive and time-consuming to get to from Tokyo.
兼做Jetstar和Air Asia航空港的成田机场不仅租金昂贵，而且与东京之间的交通不便。

The main carriers use Haneda, which is closer to the capital and cheaper. The shinkansen zoom out of the city centre, with no reservations needed.
主要运输公司以Haneda作为航空港，该港不仅离首都更近而且租金更便宜，毕竟时时都有新干线列车从Haneda市中心风驰而出。

Miyuki Suzuki, the boss of Jetstar Japan, says her company's strategy is to use low fares to persuade people to make trips they would otherwise not have made at all.
Jetstar Japan的老总Miyuki Suzuki说依她执掌的公司战略来看，如果票价降低，人们就可能做一些他们以前压根就不会做的旅行。

More tourists, she hopes, will start visiting Japan's most far-flung islands. She says she will not go head-to-head with the shinkansen (though her airline will fly between Tokyo and Osaka).
她希望有更多的游客光顾偏远的日本岛屿，并且表示将不会与新干线正面交锋（虽然该公司也运营东京到大阪的航线）。

Peach and Air Asia Japan have their sights not only on domestic flights but also on the route between Tokyo and Seoul, the nearest foreign capital.
Peach 和Air Asia Japan的业务不仅涉及日本国内航空，还包括一条东京到首尔（离东京最近的外国首都）的航线。

They may be eyeing the East Asian market, where low-cost penetration lags behind the rest of Asia.
并且因为东亚低成本航空业务不及亚洲其他地区，因此他们可能会进军该市场。

Alas, none of Japan's new budget carriers is expected to be as cut-throat as low-cost carriers elsewhere.
不幸的是，日本没有一家新的特价航空公司像其他地区的同行一样极具竞争力。

Ms Suzuki says Jetstar Japan will allow its passengers to book through travel agents, which are still ubiquitous, as well as online.
Suzuki女士说Jetstar Japan的乘客既可以从无处不在的售票中介那里购票，也可以选择网购。

"This is Japan," she says, with a sympathetic air unusual for a budget-airline boss. "It's not all going to be self-service."
她以一种同行老总很少表露的同情的语气说道："这是在日本，不是所有的机票都会实自助售卖。"