经济学人下载:政变之后的埃及

Egypt after the coup 

政变之后的埃及

It isn’t over yet

一切还未终结

A week after the military coup that overthrew Egypt’s elected Islamist president, the country remains dangerously divided

埃及发生军事政变，民选伊斯兰总统遭罢黜。一周之后，国家仍处于十分危急的分裂状态

July 13th 2013

2013年7月13日

THE words “civil war” pepper many a conversation in Cairo in the wake of the military coup on July 3rd that ousted Muhammad Morsi, a Muslim Brother, after only a year in power. On July 8th the prospect of all-out strife loomed larger after the security forces in Cairo shot dead at least 50 people who had been demanding Mr Morsi’s reinstatement.

7月3日，埃及发生军事政变。穆斯林兄弟会的穆罕默德•穆尔西（Muhammad Morsi）执政仅一年之久，便遭罢黜。自那以后，开罗的民众议论纷纷，“内战”这个字眼频频出现。6月8日，开罗的安全部队士兵至少开枪打死了50名要求恢复穆尔西职位的民众。形势愈加严峻，全面大战在即。

Egyptian society remains bitterly divided between a core of Brotherhood backers, who feel cheated, and the millions of people, including secular-minded and liberal Egyptians and quite a lot of religious ones, who wanted Mr Morsi to go. Above all, Egyptians need to agree on a plan to move the country back to democracy. On July 8th the judge appointed by the army as an interim president unveiled a brisk timetable for bringing in a new constitution and for parliamentary and presidential elections. It is bound, at best, to be a bumpy ride.

埃及社会仍是严重分裂，一边是穆兄会的核心支持者，心中是上当受骗的感觉；另一边是数百万民众，其中不乏世俗自由派埃及人以及大批宗教人士，他们要的是穆尔西下台。最重要的是，埃及人需要确定一个统一方案，让国家重返民主之路。7月8日，由军方任命的临时总统——最高法院院长迅速公布了一份安排紧凑的时间表，确定了新宪法的颁布时间以及议会选举、总统大选时日。即便天时地利人和，这条路也注定坎坷。

The opposition is still crowing over Mr Morsi’s demise. voices calling for the vanquishing of “terrorists”, as the fiercer foes of the Muslim Brothers like to call them, seem louder than those calling for restraint and compromise. On the other side, Mr Morsi’s diehard disciples, fearing for their survival, refuse to consider anything less than his reinstatement, which the generals now in charge are sure to dismiss out of hand. Since July 3rd Mr Morsi’s people have continued to mass in districts of eastern Cairo, where their support is strongest, to protest against the overthrow of their democratically elected president. 

反对派至今还在为推翻穆尔西而沾沾自喜。要求消灭“恐怖分子”（这是更暴力的穆兄会反对派喜欢用的称呼）的人似乎比呼吁克制、折衷的人更多。而另一边，穆尔西的铁杆支持者为了他们的存亡大计，要求穆尔西复职。若不满足这个最低条件，一切免谈。但目前的军方领导人肯定会当即拒绝。自7月3日起，穆尔西的支持者就一直在开罗东部地区（他们的“大本营”）集会，抗议军方罢免他们民主选举的总统。

The two sides also disagree over who was to blame for the shooting on July 8th outside the Republican Guard Club, where Mr Morsi was said to be held. The actions of the security forces seemed plainly disproportionate, at the least. The interim president, Adly Mansour, called for an inquiry without suggesting its terms, leaving the whiff of a would-be cover-up. The security forces have never hidden their hostility to the Brothers.

双方存在分歧的还有一点：谁该为7月8日发生共和国卫队俱乐部（Republican Guard Club）外的枪击案负责。据传，穆尔西当时就软禁于此。无论如何，守卫士兵的行为看上去显然是过分了。临时总统阿兹利•曼苏尔（Adly Mansour）下令调查此案，但他并没表达自己的立场（or 详细部署？），似乎有种想把案子压下去的意味。而安全部队从未掩饰过他们对穆兄会的敌意。

In response the Brotherhood’s leaders called for an uprising against the army and its head, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who launched the coup. The public prosecutor then issued arrest warrants for the organisation’s leaders, including its supreme guide, charging them with incitement to violence. Several hundred Brothers, including Mr Morsi, are behind bars, raising the spectre of Egypt’s “deep state”, as the security establishment is known, making a comeback.

作为回应，穆兄会的领导人号召民众起义，反对军方和发动政变的军方领导人——阿卜杜勒•法塔赫•西萨将军（General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi）。埃及检方随即对该组织领导（包括最高领导人在内）发出逮捕令，指控他们煽动暴乱。如今，包括穆尔西在内的几百名穆兄会成员锒铛入狱，恐惧的氛围已在酝酿，有着“暗深势力集团（deep state）”之名的国家安全部官员（穆巴拉克政权残余）似乎要卷土重来。

Keen to bring back stability and to persuade people that he sincerely wants to cede power as soon as possible, General Sisi moved fast to prod Mr Mansour into setting a rapid return to democracy. Along with his speedy timetable, the interim president issued a set of articles to replace the suspended constitution until a new one is drawn up. He gave ten lawyers a month to amend the constitution, to be reviewed within two months by 50 civil-society figures and put to a national referendum a month later. All being well, parliamentary elections would be followed by a presidential one early in the new year. 

西撒将军迫切希望国家能恢复稳定，也急于让民众相信，自己是真心打算尽快交出权力，所以很快他便敦促曼苏尔制定了一套快速重返民主之路的方案。除了他那张日程紧张的时间表，临时总统还同时颁布了一系列条款。因之前宪法暂停，这些条款在新宪法出台前将充当临时宪法。根据他的安排，十名律师将花一个月修改宪法；在之后两个月内，50位民众代表将对宪法进行审核；一个月后，对新宪法公投。如果一切进展顺利，明年初将举行总统大选，随后选举议会。

Mr Mansour also appointed Hazem al-Beblawi, a 77-year-old economist, as prime minister. Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, who is now a leader of the secular opposition, has been appointed deputy president during the transition. Mr Beblawi has embarked on negotiations to form a cabinet of technocrats, promising posts to members of the Brotherhood and of the Salafists’ Nour party.

曼苏尔还任命77岁的经济学家——哈齐姆•贝卜拉维（Hazem al-Beblawi）为总理。前国际原子能机构（联合国核监督机构）总干事穆罕穆德•巴拉迪（Mohamed ElBaradei），如今作为世俗反对派领导人之一，被任命为过渡政府副总统。贝卜拉维为了组建一个由专家构成的内阁，已着手谈判。他承诺，将邀请穆兄会和萨拉菲斯特光明党（Salafists’ Nour）人士加入内阁。

The Brothers have so far rejected Mr Mansour’s proposals in their entirety. Since their senior members have been rounded up and their television stations shut down, they are in no mood for compromise. “All the elections we won have been thrown into the rubbish bin and we have been excluded from the political process, so why would we accept this?” asks Abdullah al-Keryoni, a youth member of the Brotherhood, protesting outside Cairo’s Rabea al-Adawiya mosque.

目前为止，穆兄会拒绝了曼苏尔的全部提议。自从他们的资深成员被捕、电视台遭关闭，穆兄会是没心情妥协的。“我们赢得的所有选举都遭人唾弃，政治议程也没我们参加的份儿，既然这样，我们凭什么要接受？“年轻的穆兄会成员阿布达拉哈•阿克约尼（Abdullah al-Keryoni）在开罗拉比亚• 阿达维亚（Rabea al-Adawiya）清真寺外抗议时问道。

Meanwhile, the National Salvation Front, a grouping of liberal opposition parties under Mr ElBaradei’s co-chairmanship, said Mr Mansour had not consulted it before making his declaration and would suggest changes. Tamarod (Rebellion), the youth movement that led the protests to oust Mr Morsi, also criticised the sweeping powers reserved for Mr Mansour. And liberals nervously noted the reaffirmation in the interim president’s statement that sharia should be the basis of law, presumably as an inducement to bring the Islamists back into peaceful politics. The Nour party, which had distanced itself from the Brotherhood after the coup, also objected to the content of Mr Mansour’s proclamation.

与此同时，由巴拉迪与他人共同领导的自由派反对党联盟“埃及救国阵线（National Salvation Front）”表示，曼苏尔在发布声明前并没征求他们的意见。联盟将针对该声明提交一些修改建议。发起抗议、罢黜穆尔西的新兴反叛组织塔马洛德（Tamarod），也谴责曼苏尔不应拥有这么大的权利。自由派人士则心有不安，他们注意到，临时总统在声明中再三强调法律应以伊斯兰教法为基础。这似乎会诱使伊斯兰主义者重新打破和平政治的局面。光明党自从政变起，就与穆兄会划清界限。而他们也反对曼苏尔声明中的规定。

So further clashes are likely. Ahmed el-Tayeb, the grand imam of the al-Azhar mosque and rector of the university of the same name, who is by tradition the leading authority of Sunni Islam, has called for more serious efforts to reconcile the main camps and has warned that Egypt could be heading towards civil war. “The Muslim Brotherhood will adopt self-restraint as a strategy because they know violence allows their opponents to frame them as terrorists,” says Khalil Anani, an Egyptian expert in Islamist movements. “But they may not be able to rein in young members.” The killing of a Coptic priest and violence in Sinai suggest that other groups are keen to stir up trouble. 

所以，未来很可能会发生进一步冲突。爱兹哈尔（al-Azhar）清真寺的大伊玛目及同名大学校长（依照传统，他是逊尼派穆斯林的顶级权威人士）呼吁付出更多切实努力，与埃及的主要阵营和解。他们还警告说，埃及可能正向内战的方向发展。“穆兄会将把‘自制’作为一项战略，因为他们知道，诉诸暴力会被敌人冠上‘恐怖分子’之名，”伊斯兰运动的埃及专家卡哈里•阿纳尼（Khalil Anani）说道，“但他们可能无法管束年轻成员。”西奈半岛（Sinai）发生暴力事件，一名科普特牧师被杀，看来有些组织是诚心滋扰生事。

If the army can reimpose order on the streets with little more bloodshed and start meeting its promises to restore democracy, it will also have to set about rescuing the country’s shattered economy as a matter of extreme urgency. On July 9th Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, pleased to see Mr Morsi go, offered up to $12 billion in cash, deposits and oil—more than the amount given to Mr Morsi by Qatar, his chief financier, during his year-long stint in power. Big business has broadly rallied to the new regime.

如果军方能在尽量不杀戮的情况下再次迫使民间恢复有序状态，并着手兑现它许下的的承诺——恢复民主，那它也必须像处理头等紧急大事一样，开始拯救埃及支离破碎的经济。穆尔西下台，科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋喜闻乐见。这三个国家于7月9日宣布，将为埃及提供价值120亿美元的现金、存款和石油。穆尔西在位的一年之中，埃及最大的投资国——卡塔尔都没有提供这么多资助。大型企业也普遍表示支持新政权。

But the generals, who performed dismally during their period as caretakers after Mr Mubarak’s fall two-and-a-half years ago, know that millions may come out onto the streets again if they do not move faster and more cleverly than they did before. As street demonstrations subside, Egyptians are holding their breath. 

但军方将领心里清楚，如果不能在之前的基础上加快步伐、更明智地决策，街道上就又会涌现无数抗议民众。两年半前穆巴拉克下台后，他们作为过渡期代理人，表现得就不尽人意。如今，街道已慢慢恢复平静，而埃及人正屏息以待。