经济学人下载:又一个希腊？The new Greece?

Oil and the world economy
原油和世界经济

The new Greece?
又一个希腊？

How to assess the risks of a 2012 oil shock
如何评价2012石油危机的风险

WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil prices have become the latest source of worry for the world economy. “Oil is the new Greece” is a typical headline on a recent report by HSBC analysts. The fear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy; tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crude shot up by more than $5 a barrel on March 1st, to $128, after an Iranian press report that explosions had destroyed a vital Saudi Arabian oil pipeline. It fell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at $125, crude is still 16% costlier than at the start of the year.
欧元危机悬而未决，高油价又令世界经济为之头痛。在汇丰银行分析师最近的报道中，头条便是“原油成为又一个希腊” ，这种担忧是可以理解的。国际原油市场变幻莫测，伊朗局势依然紧张。据一家伊朗媒体报道，一次爆炸损坏了沙特阿拉伯一条至关重要的石油管道。布伦特原油价格应声上扬，三月一号每桶价格暴涨到128美元，涨幅超过5美元。随后沙特当局否认了这一报道，价格出现一定回落，但依然高达125美元，原油价格较年初上涨16%。

Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is driving up the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? And what damage could plausible future increases do?
要评估随之而来的风险，就得回答以下四个问题：是什么在推高油价？油价会高到什么地步？到目前为止，价格上涨可能带来的经济影响是什么？未来似乎合理的价格增长会造成怎样的损害？

The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to global growth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequent explanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. In recent months the world’s big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expanded quantitative easing (printing money to buy bonds) or promised to keep rates low for longer. This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets, especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than the enactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE (see Buttonwood). Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a rise in oil inventories—exactly the opposite of what has happened.
其中较高价格的起源关系重大。举例来说，供给冲击对全球增长的危害要远大于需求增加导致的价格上涨。一种常见的解释是，中央银行增加货币供给推动了价格上涨。最近的几个月里，世界各大央行都向市场注入了流动性，实行量化宽松政策（印更多的钞票购买债券）或者承诺现行的低利率将维持一段时间。这样一大批廉价货币让投资者涌入了硬资产领域，特别是石油，因此争论还在继续。但由于市场具有前瞻性，所以左右油价的应该是官方声明而不是量化宽松政策的实施。实际上，美联储主席本﹒伯南克并没有签署另一轮量化宽松政策（见《梧桐》），这一举动无疑挫败了市场信心。此外，如果价格被投机者操控，那么原油存货应该增加，而事实却恰好相反。

Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, which in turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. The recent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: a euro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and America’s recovery seems on stronger ground.
中央银行可以通过上调全球经济增长预期间接地影响原油价格,转而提升原油需求的增长预期。有间接证据支撑这一论点。最近的油价上涨与对世界经济的过分乐观是一致的：欧元区的灾难和中国的硬着陆似乎都不太可能上演，美国经济复苏的后劲十足。

But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver of dearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than 1m barrels a day (b/d) of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from a pipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, have knocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil is temporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a payment dispute with China.
但稍微乐观了一点的增长预期只是故事的一个部分，高油价一个更重要的推动因素是供给中断。总而言之，在最近几个月里，国际原油市场大概每天要减少一百万桶的原油供给。从南苏丹石油管道纠纷到北海机械故障，各种各样的非伊朗问题每天就会减少70万桶的原油供给量，另外50万桶左右临时的伊朗石油供给减少要归因于欧盟制裁和与中国的支付纠纷。

The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. The extent of OPEC’s spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, a near-record high. And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply a disruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, for instance, involved less than 5m b/d.
备用原油的缓冲效果已经不太显著，其中富国的原油储备处于五年来的历史低位。欧佩克的剩余产能大小无法确定，而沙特阿拉伯正在创造历史新高——以每天1000万桶的速度生产原油。如果伊朗真的关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这里每天有1700万桶原油通过，大约占世界原油供给量的20%——那么将会出现更大的供给中断威胁。即使只是暂时关闭，所带来的负面影响也将超过以前任何一次原油冲击。例如，在1973年阿拉伯石油禁运中，每天的原油供给减少多达500万桶。

Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckons that the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel. He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iran improve, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.
分离出这些不同的因素有一定难度，但高盛公司的杰弗里•柯里估计，供给和需求的基本面已经推动油价达到每桶118美元左右，余下的增长源于对伊朗问题的担忧。按照他的说法，如果改善与伊朗的关系，石油价格可能下行几美元，但仍会接近120美元。

Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in the first year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, who tend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvements elsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects for global growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.
在全球范围内，价格上涨造成的伤害到目前为止可能还是适度的。有一条经验法则是油价每持续增长10%，全球经济增长率就会下跌0.2%，很大程度上是因为高油价将收入从石油消费者转向生产者，所以生产者往往损失更小。现在几乎可以肯定地说，其他方面的改善完全可以抵消任何冲击，尤其是解决欧元危机。尽管油价高涨，全球经济增长的前景依然好于年初。

But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a net importer which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices (which corresponds to a 25-cent rise in the price of petrol) knocks around 0.2% off output in the first year and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that is widely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.
但是对经济增长和通胀的影响在不同的国家是有所区别的。美国作为一个石油净进口国和燃油税负较轻的国家，一个标准的规则是：石油价格增长10美元（相当于汽油价格增长25美分），会降低第一年0.2%左右的产出，第二年则会下降约0.5%。普遍预期其今年的经济增长将超过2%，看来增长会减速，但不太可能下降。

There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil than in recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Rising employment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And America’s economy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oil consumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.
在任何情况下,美国都可以比近年来更有效地抵御昂贵的石油。究其原因，可以有以下几点：汽油价格的涨幅远小于2011年或2008年；逐步上升的就业给予消费者更多收入,从而用它来支付燃料花销；以及美国经济正在远离能源密集型,更少地依赖进口。在过去的两年里, GDP上涨的同时石油消费却在下降。

Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports are well below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oil stays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas prices have plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heating unusually low. In January the share of consumers’ spending on energy products was the second-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spiking oil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.
美国人比以前少开车了,他们在购买油耗更低的汽车。净进口的石油远低于2005年的高峰时期,也就意味着美国人把更多的钱花在昂贵的石油上面并停留在美国境内。大规模发展天然气意味着天然气价格开始大幅下降。再加上异常温和的冬季,家庭供暖开销也异常之低。今年一月份,消费者的能源产品支出份额在近50年中处于第二低位。虽然这些因素并不意味着美国能够独善其身,但它们确实表明了价格上涨的影响是有限的。

Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, have typically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time they may be relatively more affected, because most economies are already stagnant or shrinking. Worse, Europe’s weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest net importers. Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, of which 88% is oil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a big jump could spawn a deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.
欧洲更明显。欧洲国家的石油税负比美国更重,通常可以看出油价的增长变化对其造成较小的影响。但这次他们可能相对更容易受影响,因为大部分经济体已经停滞或萎缩。更糟的是,欧洲最弱的边缘经济体中也有一些位于最大的石油净进口国之列。举例来说,希腊是个高度依赖能源进口的国家,而其中88%是石油。目前的价格上涨将进一步加剧欧元区衰退,一个大的跳跃就可能造成深刻的经济倒退并摧毁市场信心.

Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources in the North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains in the oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date could be more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply falling inflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakers hoped to see the economy improve this year.
英国相对安全。尽管英国是一个石油净进口国,但它在北海有明显的资源优势，消费者在昂贵的燃料上产生的任何损失都能被石油和天然气行业增加的收益部分抵消。即便如此，油价上涨对英国的影响也比以往更为不利, 特别是因为它们减少了通货膨胀急剧下降的可能性。低通货膨胀和增加的实际收入,是英国决策者所希望看到的今年经济改善的一个方面。

Barrels, no laughs
百不一贷

In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuela to the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and 2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less of a worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of most emerging economies’ consumption basket, are stable.
新兴经济体之间的差异更大。从委内瑞拉到中东, 石油出口国都是贸易顺差，而石油进口国将会面临不断恶化的贸易平衡。2008年和2011年,燃料价格高昂是新兴经济体通货膨胀的主要原因。但如今不同了，占多数新型经济体消费组合很大比重的食品价格较为稳定。

But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emerging economies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil but also from the weakening of European export markets.
但是有些国家将面临一些问题。在短期内,一些受冲击最大的新兴经济体将会出现在东欧。他们将忍受的不仅仅是愈加昂贵的石油价格，还有不断疲软的欧洲出口市场。

India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, so inflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To the extent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulates—and heavily subsidises—the price of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only 31% since January 2009, whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. The difference is a result of subsidies, frustrating India’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit.
印度也被波及。燃料是其批发价格指数一个很大的组成部分,因此，高油价将通过国内燃料成本导致通货膨胀率上升。印度调控并大量补贴柴油和煤油价格，这一点反映在财政预算上。据德意志银行统计,从2009年1月开始柴油价格上涨了31%,而在卢比市场原油价格已增长了180%。所不同的是补贴政策的效果——挫败印度减少预算赤字的努力。

So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth. But it is not helping Europe’s more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.
所以石油不是又一个神话。高企的石油价格对全球经济增长的危害会少一些，但这并不能缓解欧洲愈加脆弱的经济。如果霍尔木兹海峡的正常运营受到威胁,油价上涨将会宣告全球复苏的结束。