经济学人下载:航空运输业 宴会上的幽灵

Business
商业报道

Aviation
航空运输业

Ghost at the feast
宴会上的幽灵

Airlines stand to lose heavily should the euro collapse
一旦欧元崩溃，航空公司需面临其带来的惨重损失

MEETINGS of airline bosses are rarely cheerful events, profits being tighter than leg room in economy.
航空公司老板们的商务会议鲜有高兴的事，该领域的利润比经济舱那放脚空间还要拮据。

But this year's annual gathering of the International Air Transport Association should have been different.
但是今年国际航空运输协会的年度聚会应该会有所不同。

For a start, the airlines' umbrella group picked the most promising market to host the pow-wow, which was held in Beijing.
首先，航空公司的伞型集团选择了在最有前景市场的北京来主持举办这次会晤。

Not only is air travel booming within and from China, but the country's airlines also made half of all global profits last year.
不仅是中国国内、国际航空旅行的蓬勃发展，而且该国航空公司去年赚到了全球航空领域一半的利润。

But as IATA delegates assembled for their gala dinner on June 11th at the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square,
但是6月11日，当国际航空运输协会代表们在天安门广场人民大会堂里齐聚一堂共度晚宴时，

there was a ghost at the feast.
宴会上存在一个幽灵。

The topic on most people's minds was not the dozens of airports to be opened this decade in China, nor the quarter of a trillion dollars the host country is spending to become an aviation and aerospace superpower.
大多数人考虑关注的话题不在于中国数十个机场将在本年代陆续开放，也不在于该主办国将花费数万亿美元的四分之一即成为航空航天的超级大国。

On the contrary, all eyes were focused on the spectre of financial chaos in Europe.
相反，所有的目光都聚焦着对欧洲经融危机带来的恐慌和忧虑。

The euro zone's troubles have already pushed many European carriers into the red.
这次欧元区的危机已使得许多欧洲航空公司财政赤字。

IATA predicts that there is a “serious risk” of bankruptcies.
国际航空运输协会预测存在着一个破产的“严重风险”。

Indeed, Malev and Spainair, two fair-sized European airlines, have already gone bust.
实际上，匈牙利航空和西班牙航空这两家一般规模的欧洲航空公司已经破产。

Several big airline groups, notably Air France-KLM, are trying to make deep cuts. The global industry's after-tax profits are forecast to fall from $7.9 billion in 2011 to $3 billion this year; that is just 0.5% of revenue.
几大航空公司团体，特别是法航-荷航正试图大幅削减。全球行业内的税后利润预计将从2011年的79亿美元降低到今年的30亿，这仅仅是国家财政收入的0.5%。

And if the euro collapses?
那如果欧元崩溃了呢？

“It would be worse than 9/11,” says Willie Walsh, the boss of IAG, which owns British Airways and Iberia.
拥有英国航空公司和伊比利亚航空的国际航空集团老板威利沃尔什声称，这个比例将不到9/11。

Things feel all the worse because 2012 might otherwise have been a good year.
有些事情感觉反而更糟，这是因为2012年或许在其他方面将会是美好的一年。

Oil prices have moderated of late. Global passenger traffic has risen by 6%, faster than the long-term trend.
石油价格近来已经回落。全球客流量上升了6%，上升速度超过了长期趋势。

Freight contracted in 2011, but is reviving in many markets.
2011就签下了货运合同，在许多市场这仅仅正在复苏之中。

Asset utilisation is 79%, up from 74% in 2009.
资产利用率从2009年的74%上升到了79%。

Planes are relatively full, especially in America.
飞机相对完整,尤其是在美国。

That said, the industry faces three risks besides a European meltdown.
这就是说，该行业除了欧洲金融危机将面临三大风险。

First, an oil-supply shock—resulting from an Iranian crisis, say—would send fuel prices sharply up again and wipe out profits.
首先是伊朗危机下的石油供应冲击，这将使得燃料价格再次飙升，削减行业利润。

Some airlines, including KLM, are investing in biofuels, but full commercialisation looks a decade away.
包括荷航在内的一些航空公司正在投资于生物燃料，但是者想要完全商业化可能还需要十年时间。

Others use financial hedges, but these are pricey and can backfire if oil prices drop.
另一些航空公司则使用金融对冲基金，但是这是相当昂贵的而且如果石油价格下降的话可能适得其反。

Delta is even now finalising a deal to buy an oil refinery.
美国达美航空公司甚至现在正在最终敲定一项购买一个炼油厂的协议。

The second risk arises from the flood of new planes due to be delivered shortly.
第二个风险滋生于即将大量交付使用的新飞机。

Production snags at both Airbus and Boeing have kept capacity tighter than planned.
空中客车公司和波音公司的生产障碍在于比原计划保证其客容量需更加严格。

If everyone uses their new planes to expand capacity, rather than to replace clunkers, there could be a lot of empty seats.
如果所有的人都使用他们的新飞机来扩大产能，而不是更换旧机的话则可能会有很多空位。

The final threat pits ghost against host.
最后的威胁是针对这次主办方的。

The European Commission's inclusion of greenhouse gases from aviation in its emissions-trading scheme is opposed by over 30 countries,
欧盟委员会在它提出的碳排放交易计划中关于来至航空温室气体混合物这点有超过30个国家反对，

of which China is the most defiant.
对此中国是最肆无忌惮的。

If a compromise is not found, European countries must levy hefty fines on offenders and may seize aircraft—which could set off a trade war.
如果没有找到一个妥协之处，欧洲各国必定会对其违规者征收巨额罚款，而且可能会扣押飞机，这必将引起一场贸易战。

On June 12th the China Air Transport Association, which represents Chinese carriers, said that China would retaliate with similar measures.
6月12日，代表中国航空公司的中国航空运输协会声明：中国将采取相似的措施以作为回应。

The Chinese government has forbidden its airlines from participating in the ETS.
中国政府已经禁止其航空公司参与该碳排放交易计划。

It has even threatened to cancel orders placed by its airlines with Airbus.
它甚至还威胁要取消其航空公司与空中客车公司的订单。

No coincidence, then, that this week's banquet was paid for by the European aircraftmaker.
那么本周的宴会是由欧洲的飞机制造商赞助的，这也并非偶然。

The Chinese appear unbowed.
中国看起来似乎不会屈服。