经济学人下载:促使中国企业最新一轮海外购买行为的推动力

China’s outward investment

中国的对外投资

The second wave

第二波投资来袭

What to make of Chinese firms’ latest foreign purchases

促使中国企业最新一轮海外购买行为的推动力

Oct 26th 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print edition

HAS China arrived at its Rockefeller Centre moment? In the late 1980s as Japan’s miracle economy was soaring, the Mitsubishi Estate Company bought the Rockefeller Centre in Manhattan, a landmark complex built by the eponymous oil and banking clan. Alas, Mitsubishi had to sell, at a big loss, after Japan’s asset bubble popped. Now it is Chinese firms that are seeking such trophies in New York.

中国达到了它的洛克菲勒中心时刻吗？20世纪80年代末，日本经济奇迹般飞速增长，三菱房地产公司买下了曼哈顿的洛克菲特中心，它是由齐名的石油和银行业家族建造的一个具有里程碑意义的复杂体。可惜，在日本泡沫经济破灭后，三菱不得不以极大亏损价将其出售。如今，中国公司像是正在纽约寻求此类胜利。

Fosun International, a Chinese conglomerate, has just agreed to pay $725m for 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, a skyscraper near Wall Street, commissioned by David Rockefeller and completed in 1961. This follows a recent investment by Greenland, a Chinese state-owned firm, in Atlantic Yards, a big development in Brooklyn. Earlier this year a consortium involving Zhang Xin, a founder of Soho China, a private property giant, bought a stake in the General Motors Building in Manhattan.

中国的一家联合企业，复星国际，刚以7.25亿美元买下第一曼哈顿广场——靠近华尔街的一座摩天大楼，由大卫·洛克菲勒实施建造并于1961年完成。紧接着，中国一家国有企业绿地集团投资大西洋院，成为布鲁克林的一项重大发展。今年早些时日，中国私有房产巨头SOHO创始人之一张欣也涵括在内的一个财团，购买了曼哈顿的通用汽车大厦的股份。

It does not necessarily follow that this assault on New York will also end in tears. Whereas Mitsubishi overpaid, the Chinese investors seem to be negotiating reasonable deals. Michael Cohen of Colliers International, a property-services firm, says that although Fosun must modernise the ageing Chase tower, “The price per square foot appears to be a bargain.” 

在纽约的此番“袭击”未必会像日本那样悲剧收场。当初三菱收购价过高，而中国的投资者们正商榷一个合理价格交易。来自一家物业服务企业高力国际的Michael Cohen表示，尽管复星国际需要革新老化的大通大厦，但是“每平方尺的价格很便宜。”

A shift is under way in China’s overseas direct investment (ODI), which is growing fast but is still dwarfed by foreign investment into China (see chart). The first wave largely involved state-owned firms, and was directed at acquiring energy, minerals and land in poor countries. Resource insecurity lingers—witness the 20% stake taken this week by Chinese state firms in Libra, a giant Brazilian offshore oilfield—but it is no longer the driving force. New motives propel the second wave.

中国海外直接投资的一种转变正在进行之中，其增速虽快，相比海外对华投资，仍然相形见绌（见图）。第一波投资主要涉及国有企业，被用来获取贫困国家的能源，煤矿以及土地。资源不安尚有残余，本周一国企购买了一块大型巴西近海油田Libra的20%股份就足以说明这一点，但资源不再是推动力，新的推动因素正酝酿着第二波投资。

China’s government is keen to boost the miserable yields it gets on its overseas investments, argues Thilo Hanemann of Rhodium Group, a consultant. So it is now encouraging state firms to invest in property in prime locations, and in infrastructure and other assets in mature markets. In Britain, they have invested in Thames Water and Heathrow airport. This week the British government said a consortium involving Chinese state firms could build a nuclear-power station in the west of England. 

荣鼎集团顾问Thilo Hanemann表示，中国政府热衷于提高其海外投资中不见好的收益部分。因此，中国现在正鼓励国企投资于黄金地带的房地产，基础设施以及成熟市场的其他资产。在英国，中国国企在泰晤士水务及希思罗机场投资。本周英国政府方面声明，一个含有中国国企的财团将在英国西部修建一个核电站。

Private firms seeking brands and technology are also playing a big role in this second wave. Geely, a Chinese carmaker, bought Volvo of Sweden. Dongfeng, another Chinese firm, is said to be considering buying a stake in Peugeot-Citroën, an ailing French carmaker. On October 22nd Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, said it would open a new division in America to invest exclusively in internet start-ups. And Lenovo, a computer-maker, is preparing a bid for Canada’s BlackBerry.

寻求品牌和技术的私企在第二波投资中也扮演很重要角色。中国汽车制造商吉利买下了瑞典的沃尔沃；据说另一家公司东风，将考虑对法国一家夕阳汽车商Peugeot-Citroën进行购股；10月22日，中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴宣布将在美国开启新的部门，专门用来投资互联网创业；电脑制造商联想，也准备竞标加拿大黑莓。

As a result, the share of Chinese ODI going to rich countries has shot up from just a tenth in 2002 to two-thirds last year. Like Japan before it, China could yet experience a crash. But the shift in investment from free-spending state firms seeking resources to frugal private ones chasing markets and innovation is a positive sign.

结果，中国对富裕国家的海外投资份额从2002年的十分之一猛增到去年的三分之二。要是像之前的日本，中国可能已经遇到重创。但是从挥金如土并寻求资源的国企到节俭并追求市场和创新的私企在投资方面的转变是一个好的迹象。