经济学人下载:人民币交易

Trading the yuan
人民币交易

Yuawn
“元”之崛起？

Buzz about the rise of China's currency has run far ahead of sedate reality
人民币升值的呼声远远超于稳定的现实环境

IF HEADLINES translated into trading volumes, the yuan would be well on its way to dominating the world's currency markets. It once again graced front pages this week after moves to lift its status in London, the world's biggest foreign-exchange market. This was the latest instalment of a five-year-long public-relations campaign. Since 2009, when China first declared its intention to promote the yuan internationally, a string of announcements and milestones has cast the Chinese currency as a putative rival to the dollar.
如果本文的标题翻译为“交易量”的话，那么它确实能够很好地引出这样一个事实：人民币正走向货币交易市场的霸主之位。本周在伦敦这一全球最大的外汇交易市场里，几个利好因素再次让人民币成为瞩目的焦点。人民币的公关推广活动已历时五年，而以上利好消息正是中国政府近期努力的最新成果。自2009年中国首次宣布推动人民币国际化的意图以来，一系列的政策公告和重大事件都使得中国货币成为了美元的假想敌。

The hype rests on several seemingly impressive numbers. Yuan deposits beyond China's borders have increased tenfold in the past five years. The “dim sum” bond market for yuan-denominated debt issued outside China has gone from non-existence to a dozen issuances a month. And the yuan is the second-most-used currency in the world for trade finance.
本次掀起的人民币热潮有赖于几个看似惊人的指标。人民币的境外储备量在过去的五年里上升了十倍。过去不曾存在的，在境外以人民币计价的“点心债券”，目前每月都有十数次的发行量。与此同时，人民币已经成为了全球第二常用的贸易金融货币。

Adding to the impression that something big is afoot is the competition between cities around the world to establish themselves as yuan-trading hubs. London puffed up its chest this week after the Chinese government designated China Construction Bank as the official clearing bank for yuan-denominated transactions in Britain and agreed to launch direct trading between the pound and the yuan in China. These announcements were made to coincide with a trip to London by Li Keqiang, China's prime minister.
更令人震撼的是，全球各大城市之间都在争先建设成为人民币交易的中心。而本周，伦敦则先下一城：中国政府决定授权中国建设银行有限公司担任伦敦人民币业务清算行，并且同意在银行间外汇市场开展人民币对英镑直接交易。上述决议的公告是与中国国务院总理李克强的访英之旅做出配合。

The designation of a clearing bank creates a channel for yuan held in Britain to flow into Chinese capital markets, boosting London's appeal as a trading centre for the currency. Other cities such as Frankfurt and Singapore have also been awarded clearing banks, but London already controls nearly 60% of yuan-denominated trade payments between Asia and Europe, and this week's agreement will shore up its position.
此次清算银行的授权使得英国能够拥有一条人民币回流中国资本市场的通道，从而增加了伦敦作为全球货币结算中心的吸引力。虽然其他一些城市，例如法兰克福和新加坡，都被授予了清算银行的权限，但伦敦在欧亚间人民币计价交易清算的市场份额早已接近60%，而本周的协议更进一步巩固其优势地位。

London's currency traders, however, will not be hyperventilating. The rapid growth in the use of the yuan outside China, whether for trade settlement or investment, has been from a minuscule base. The yuan is the seventh-most-used currency in international payments, according to SWIFT, a global transfer system. That is up from 20th place at the start of 2012. However, the Chinese currency still accounts for a mere 1.4% of global payments, compared with the dollar's 42.5%. Given that many of those deals just shuffle cash between Chinese companies and their subsidiaries in Hong Kong, there is much less than meets the eye to the yuan's stature as a trade-settlement currency.
然而，伦敦的货币交易员并不会因此对人民币感到兴奋不已。无论是在国际贸易清算还是投资往来方面，支撑着中国境外人民币使用量急速增长的基础极为薄弱。环球银行金融电信协会指出，目前人民币在国际支付领域常用货币的排名里，从2012年初的第二十位上升到了第七位。但即便如此，中国货币在国际支付领域的份额也仅有1.4%，相比之下美元则为42.5%。考虑到涉及人民币的许多交易都只是中国公司与其在香港分支机构的资金流动，以人民币作为国际贸易结算货币的情况远比我们看到的要少。

Even more telling is the yuan's standing as an investment currency. The dollar's biggest selling point as a global reserve currency is the deep, liquid pool of American assets open to international buyers. Despite the barrage of reports in recent years about the dim-sum bond market, China's offerings are much sparser. Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group calculates that global investors have access to 56 trillion of American assets, including bonds and stocks. They can also get their hands on 29 trillion of euro-denominated assets and 17 trillion of Japanese ones. But when it comes to Chinese assets, just 0.3 trillion or so are open to foreign investors. This puts the yuan on a par with the Philippine peso and a bit above the Peruvian nuevo sol, Mr Anderson notes.
更能说明人民币真实情况的是其作为投资货币的地位。美元作为国际储备货币的最大卖点就在于，具有市场深度和流动性的美国资产在支撑着它，并且这些资产还对全球的投资者开放。除了近期铺天盖地宣传报告的“点心债券”之外，中国能给予人民币的支撑则少之又少。根据瑞银股份有限公司北京首席新兴市场经济学家乔纳森·安德森的估算，全球投资者可以购买的包括债券和股票在内的美国资产总值达到了56万亿美元。与此同时，市场可以购买到的欧元区资产达到了29万亿美元，日本资产方面则达到了17万亿美元。但对于中国资产来说，外国投资者能够接触的资产总值仅为0.3万亿美元。安德森先生指出，中国开放资产的程度使得人民币的地位与菲律宾比索相当，仅仅比秘鲁索尔高一点点。

What is holding the yuan back? The answer is China itself—both by circumstance and, more importantly, by design. For a currency to go global, there has to be a path for it to leave its country of origin. The easiest route is via a trade deficit. For example, since the United States imports more than it exports, it in effect adds to global holdings of dollars on a daily basis. That does not work for China, which almost always runs a large trade surplus. It has tried to solve this problem by offering to pay for imports in yuan, while still accepting dollars for its exports.
是什么在阻碍着人民币发展？答案就是中国自身。不仅仅是中国的现实环境所造成的，更重要的是中国制度设计上的原因。如果一种货币要走向全球，那么必须存在一个通道能让其离开它的本国，而简单的方法莫过于“贸易逆差”。比方说，由于美国进口产品的总值要大于其出口，因而实际上每天都有美元流到国际市场当中。但这对于中国来说是行不通的，因为它几乎总处于贸易顺差的情况。中国已经尝试通过在对出口商品收取美元的同时，对进口商品支付人民币的方法来解决问题。

Yet this approach can go only so far, because of the design of the Chinese system. Foreigners paid in yuan cannot do much with the currency and thus look askance at it. China could change this at a stroke by flinging open its capital account. There is speculation that it might do just that as debate about financial reform intensifies in Beijing. But Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank, predicts that caution will prevail, with the government slowly lowering its wall of capital controls rather than demolishing it. That would be far better for China's financial stability. But it also means that the chasm between the hype about the yuan and the mundane reality is likely to widen.
然而，由于中国货币系统设计的因素，导致了上述方法的作用十分有限。即便外国人在贸易过程中接受人民币也改变不了宏观现实，并且他们会因此产生对此种清算方式的厌恶情绪。目前，有人预测人民币将进行大刀阔斧的激进改革，而这引起的波澜将如同北京新一轮的经济改革所引起的争论一样。但前央行货币委员会委员（顾问）余永定预计，稳健依旧会是中国政府的主要方针。他表示中国政府会缓慢降低资本管制的标准，而不是一蹴而就地开放资本市场。诚然，这样的做法更有利于中国经济的稳定性。与此同时，这也意味着人民币热潮所鼓吹的愿景，很可能将与现实渐行渐远。