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经济学人下载:德国企业

2014-06-25来源:Economist

German business
德国企业

DAX max
DAX指数新高

A stockmarket milestone reflects optimism for German companies
股市里程碑折射出德国企业的乐观心态

ECONOMIC growth of 2% this year, as is expected in Germany, is hot stuff only in the context of Europe's cool climes. But the DAX index of the country's biggest listed companies is truly sizzling, closing above 10,000 points for the first time on Monday June 9th, up by 22% on a year ago and nearly treble the low it hit in March 2009. The MDAX, an index of somewhat smaller companies, has performed even better. Share-traders' enthusiasm is shared by bosses: the Ifo business-climate index, a widely watched survey of companies, shows an optimism not seen since 2011.
德国今年的经济增长达到了预期的2%,这成绩只能在经济低迷的欧洲称得上醒目。不过该国最大的上市公司的DAX指数真可谓炙手可热,在6月9日收盘首次突破10,000点,比去年同比增长22%,几乎是2009年3月触底点数的三倍。小型公司的指数MDAX表现更为突出。公司经理们也被股东们的热情感染:本月,广受关注的企业调查IFO商业景气指数,显示了2011年以来难得的乐观情绪。

经济学人下载:德国企业

What justifies the cheer? Dirk Müller, a trader and commentator, although cautious about the heights share prices are reaching, thinks the prospects for Germany's carmakers are bright. Two of them, BMW and Volkswagen, have been among the top-five performers over the past five years, and the DAX's best performer has been Continental, a car-parts maker.
为什么如此乐观?交易员兼评论员德克?穆勒虽然对目前的高股价持谨慎态度,还是认为汽车制造商的前景一片光明。其中的宝马和大众汽车两家在过去的五年都一直是前五名,而在DAX指数中表现最好的是一家名为“大陆”的汽车零部件生产商。

In recent years the run-up in German automotive and engineering firms' shares has been driven by booming emerging-market sales. Now, China's market is cooling, and the prospects for sales in Russia have been dampened by its confrontation with the West over Ukraine. However, markets closer to home are coming to the rescue: car sales in Europe have increased for eight months in a row. Volkswagen, which sold 4.4% more cars in the first five months of 2014 than in the same period last year, says western Europe is now only second to the Asia-Pacific region in sales growth, a big change from recent years.
最近几年,拜新兴市场蓬勃发展的销售所赐,德国汽车和工程公司的股票大幅增长。现在,中国市场正在降温,而俄罗斯和西方在乌克兰问题上的对抗使得该国的销售前景黯淡无光。不过,窝边草成了救命草:连续八个月,欧洲汽车销售量节节攀升。大众汽车在头五个月的销售量比去年同期增长了4.4%。它表示,西欧市场的销售增长目前仅次于亚太地区,这同前几年相比可是大大不同了。

Other German businesses may likewise see renewed vigour in domestic, European and rich-world markets, compensating for the weakening outlook elsewhere. Barclays, a bank, thinks that a long-overdue recovery in capital spending by companies in developed economies should help the country's many makers of industrial equipment and services. As examples, Barclays mentions Siemens, an engineering conglomerate, Infineon, a microchip-maker, and SAP, which makes business software.
其他的德国企业可能也同样发觉了重新焕发活力的德国、欧洲和富裕国家市场,从而对于弱化的其他市场有所补偿。巴克莱银行认为,正如人们期待已久的,发达国家的资本支出开始回升给德国的工业设备制造商和服务提供商的发展提供了助力。巴克莱银行提到的例子包括工程集团西门子,微芯片制造商英飞凌,还有商业软件制造商SAP。

All three have struck cheerier notes in recent results announcements. Growth in company profits tends to lag GDP growth by a couple of quarters, so Siemens expects the strong first-quarter economic figure to translate into higher sales later this year. SAP sees the packaged-software market in its Europe, Middle East and Africa region growing by more than 5% this year. Infineon expects revenue growth of between 4% and 8% in the current quarter, and thinks rising demand from carmakers and other industrial customers will drive its growth this year.
以上三家公司都在最近的业绩公告中有好消息。公司的利润增长通常会落后于GDP增长几个季度,因此西门子预计,第一季度的经济数据势头强劲,将会在今年晚些时候转化为销售额的增长。SAP预计今年其套装软件在欧洲、中东及非洲地区的销量增幅将超过5%。英飞凌预计本季度的收入增长将介于4%和8%之间,并且随着汽车制造商和其他工业客户的需求增长,它的增长也会被相应推动。

Although bosses are sounding increasingly happy about the prospects for their businesses, economists are wary. They think the hype on the stockmarket may be excessive. In particular, they worry that the decision on June 5th by the European Central Bank to push interest rates down into uncharted territory risks inflating a bubble—it was surely no coincidence that the DAX's record high came so soon after the ECB's decision.
尽管企业经营者们对于商业前景愈来愈欢欣鼓舞,经济学家们却忧心忡忡。他们认为目前股市的炒作可能过度了。他们特别担心欧洲央行在6月5日决定将利率压低到前所未有的程度,这将催生泡沫—之后,DAX指数很快创下历史新高,这绝非巧合。

But the industrial bosses see a positive side to the ECB's move: cutting interest rates should tend to weaken the euro, making their exports outside the currency zone more competitive and boosting their value when translated back into euros. Adidas, a sportswear-maker, says that the strengthening euro knocked a 235m dent in its sales last year.
不过产业经营者们却看到了欧洲央行举动的积极一面:降息将削弱欧元,增加他们在欧元区外的出口竞争力,并在折算回欧元的时候提高他们的价值。阿迪达斯运动服的制造商表示,去年欧元升值导致销售量下降了2.35亿欧元。

Furthermore, with interest rates so low, German banks are falling over themselves to tempt customers with loans to buy new kitchens and take dream holidays, while loosening their loan criteria. Although retailers are not yet as cheerful as manufacturers, their spirits will be raised if the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry is correct in foreseeing a strong revival in domestic consumption. Dirk Schlotb?ller, an economist at the chambers of commerce, says geopolitical tensions and overgenerous government spending commitments should still give German businesses reasons for caution; but for now the chambers' member firms are telling him that things are looking up.
此外,德国银行借低利率之机,千方百计的吸引客户贷款购买新厨房、或者实现自己的梦想假期,同时还降低了贷款标准。虽然零售商没有像制造商那么欢天喜地,但如果德国工商会对于国内消费将强劲复苏的预言成真,那么这些零售商们也可以大舒一口气了。一位商会的经济学家德克·史洛博乐表示,地缘政治紧张以及过分慷慨的政府支出承诺,都是德国企业应当谨慎的原因。不过当前商会的成员公司都纷纷告诉他一切都在好转。