经济学人下载:中国 印度和气候变化

China, India and climate change
中国，印度和气候变化

Take the lead
引领全球

Emerging markets are a big part of the problem; they are essential to any solution
新兴市场是问题的症结，也是任何解决方法的关键。

GreeNPRint: A New Approach to Cooperation on Climate Change. By Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian.
绿色印记关于气候变化的新合作方式作者：阿迪特亚马图，阿温德苏布拉曼尼恩

MOST books about the environment take the West as their starting point. This is understandable. For decades America was the world's biggest polluter, contributing more to the problem than any other country, whereas Europe—at least in its politicians' minds—has model environmental laws and holds plenty of righteous talks to negotiate new solutions.
很多关于环境的书都以西方为出发点。这个可以理解。过去几十年来，美国都是世界上最大的污染源，造成的影响比其他任何国家都要大，而欧洲-至少在欧洲的政治家心里-拥有可作为典范的环保法律并在商讨新的解决方法时发表了许多公证的讲座。

But Europe and America are becoming supporting actors in the world's climate-change drama. The lead players are China and India. China is the world's largest emitter, contributing nearly a quarter of current global emissions. With India it accounted for 83% of the worldwide increase in carbon emissions in 2000-11. Though global warming began with industrialised countries it must end—if it is to end—through actions in developing ones. All the more reason to welcome “GreeNPRint”, the first book on climate change to concentrate on this growing part of the problem. Written by Aaditya Mattoo, an economist at the World Bank, and Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development, the book offers an unflinching look at what one might realistically expect emerging markets to do.
但欧洲与美国，在世界正在上演的气候变化戏剧的舞台上正沦为配角。主要的演员是中国和印度。中国是世界上最大的废气排放国，它所排放的废气占了全球排放废气总量的将近四分之一。在2000年至11年期间，在全球碳排放增长中，中国和印度就占了83%。虽然全球变暖始于工业化国家，但必须终止-如果会终止的话-发展中国家采取行动终止全球变暖。《绿色印记》应受到欢迎的更重要的原因是，它关注了发展中国家在全球变暖问题上日益凸显的地位，这是第一本关注此问题的书。该书的两位作者阿迪特亚马图是世界银行的一名经济学家，阿温德苏布拉曼尼恩是全球发展中心的资深人士，本书毫不畏惧地指出关于我们可以期待新兴市场采取何种切实的措施解决气候变化的问题。

From an environmentalist's point of view, India and China elicit despair. They are obsessed with growth. To fuel it, they are building ever more coal-fired power stations, a filthy form of energy. Their cities fume. Their rivers catch fire. There is not much anyone can do about it.
从一个环保人士的角度看来，印度和中国的做法只能让人绝望。他们太沉迷于经济增长了。为了推动经济增长，他们建了更多的火力发电厂-一种极不环保的能源。他们的城市都弥漫着烟雾。他们的河流都着火了。我们对此也无能为力。

But an attractive quality of this book is that it goes beyond such fatalism. The West, the authors argue, has failed to mitigate global warming, so developing countries will have to take over. This is necessary, they say, because global warming will affect developing countries more than rich ones, partly because tropical and subtropical lands are more sensitive to warming than cold or temperate ones, and partly because rich people can afford better flood controls and drought-resistant seeds than poor ones. One estimate by William Cline, an economist, found that a rise of 2.5% in global temperatures would cut agricultural productivity by 6% in America but by 38% in India. In light of their disproportionate vulnerability, emerging giants will have to push rich countries to make more environmental compromises. To make these demands credible, they themselves will have to make some changes too.
但本书最吸引人的地方在于它并没有受制于宿命论。作者认为，西方国家未能减缓全球变暖，因此发展中国家要接过这个重任。他们说这是必要的，因为全球变暖对发展中国家的影响远大于富裕国家，一部分原因在于热带和亚热带大陆比寒带或温带大陆对温度升高更为敏感，另一部分原因在与贫穷国家相比，富裕国家的人能买得起有更好的防洪抗旱能力的种子。一位叫威廉卡莱恩的经济学家预测发现，全球温度上升2.5%，美国的农作物产量会降低6%，而印度的会降低38%。鉴于两国对气温变化的承受能力相差如此悬殊，新兴的巨头将必须迫使富裕国家在环境问题上作出更多的妥协。为了表明这些要求合理，他们自身也要做出一些改变。

The trouble, as the authors admit, is that emissions cuts will also be costly for China and India. Messrs Mattoo and Subramanian estimate that if the two countries were to reduce emissions by 30% by 2020 (compared with doing nothing), their manufacturing output would fall by 6-7% and their manufactured exports by more than that. As still relatively poor countries, they are less able to bear the pain.
但麻烦在于，正如作者承认的，减少废气排放对中国和印度来说，代价也很高。马图先生和苏布拉曼尼恩先生预测如果中印两国在2020年前能把废气排放减低30%，那么他们的制造业产值将会降低6%-7%,而他们制造业出口降幅将更大。作为相对贫穷的国家，中印两国无法承受那样的代价。

These challenges help to explain why it is so difficult for India and China to take the lead on climate change. After considering different ways to allocate emissions cuts among nations, the authors concede that the fairest approach would be to allow developing countries to consume as much energy as rich ones did during their own industrial revolutions. But if the aim is to limit the rise in global temperatures to two degrees, which most scientists think necessary, this would allow developing-country emissions to rise by 200% whereas rich-country emissions would have to fall by an amount that is politically inconceivable.
这些挑战也解释了为什么印度和中国在气候变化问题上不愿主动带头。该如何分配不同国家的减排任务，经过仔细考虑，作者也作出了让步，他们认为最公平的方法就是允许发展中国家在进行工业化的过程中消耗的能源与富裕国家持平。但如果目标是把全球温度上升控制在2摄氏度以内，这是多数的科学家认为必要的，那么发展中国家的排放量可上升200%而富裕国家的排放量则相应降低,而这个降低的数量从政治的角度考虑是难以想象的。

The authors supply more reasonable solutions. They reckon that China and others could and should invest more in new technologies, such as carbon capture and storage, in order to boost improvements in clean energy. They also provide a detailed and convincing case for rich countries to put a price on carbon by introducing a modest border tax on imports from developing countries.
作者提供了更多合理的解决方法。他们认为中国和其他发展中国家应投入更多的资金和资源于新技术，像碳捕获和碳储存技术，以促进清洁能源的发展。他们也提供了一个详细的有信服力的案例，富裕国家通过对发展中国家的进口商品征收适当的边境税以便对碳标价。

The book does not quite provide the promised “greeNPRint” for developing countries to reduce emissions. But that would be a tall order. As a first stab at analysing one of the world's most intractable problems, it provides a wealth of analysis and fuel for thought.
对于发展中国家降低碳排放，本书并未提供如标题所示的“绿色印记”。但那是一个过高的要求。本书首次深入世界上最棘手的问题之一，作了大量的分析，并为人们思考这个问题提供了动力。