经济学人下载:巴以 新常态

Israel and Palestine
巴以

The new normal
新常态

No matter what Israel's prime minister says, the conflict with the Palestinians cannot simply be “managed”
无论以色列总理说什么，巴以冲突都不可能简单的“处理好”。

THE prime minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, has sought to make life normal. While the Middle East has gone up in flames, Israel's economy has thrived. Cafés emptied a decade ago by Palestinian suicide-bombers are once again teeming with customers. Demonstrators in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have protested not just about war and peace, but even more vociferously about the price of cottage cheese.
以色列总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡正在设法使以色列回归正常生活。虽然中东地区陷入火海，以色列的经济却蓬勃发展。十年前被巴勒斯坦人自杀式炸弹袭击的咖啡馆由门可罗雀恢复成如今的顾客满盈。聚集在耶路撒冷和特拉维夫（以色列港市）的人民不再仅仅为了和平而示威，如今更多的却是由于白干酪的物价过高而抗议。

This unreal normality is now under threat. After a two-year lull, rockets fired from Gaza have rained down on Israel. The Israel Defence Forces have struck hundreds of sites in Gaza. The army is ready to mobilise up to 40,000 reserves. The talk is of a ground offensive against Hamas, which governs Gaza (see article). Palestinians, 70 of whom have already been killed, are sliding towards a third uprising, or intifada.
然而这种不真实的正常生活如今已受到威胁。才过两年平静的生活，巴勒斯坦便从加沙发射火箭弹炮轰以色列；以色列国防军随即攻占加沙地区数百个地区，并欲召集达40,000人的预备队对抗哈马斯集团，如今他们已经控制住加沙地区（另见文）。巴勒斯坦死亡人数已达70人，尽管如此，他们仍将发动第三次起义，或者说是暴动。

Mr Netanyahu's mistake—compounded by the actions of Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinians on the West Bank—is to think that their versions of normality can be sustained simply by managing the conflict. A stand-off is always liable to tip into violence. Lasting peace will come about only when the two sides reach a comprehensive settlement.
内塔尼亚胡的失误，再加上西岸(1967年被以色列占领的巴勒斯坦的约旦河西岸的部分)的巴勒斯坦领袖马哈茂德·阿巴斯的行动，这似乎表明唯有平息两国冲突才能维护他们想要的正常生活。两军对峙常常会演变成暴力冲突。也唯有达成全面和解，两国才能拥有持久和平。

More than maintenance
不仅是维持

Today's violence was triggered by the murder of three Israeli teenagers, snatched on their way back from study at ayeshiva in an Israeli settlement in the West Bank. Mr Netanyahu blamed Hamas—on evidence that remains unclear—leading to the arrest of hundreds of Palestinians, including some prisoners who had recently been released under an American-sponsored scheme designed to boost peace talks with Mr Abbas. In retaliation, and outraged at the murder of a young Palestinian, militants fired rockets into Israel. The IDF responded with lethal force. In a few short days, the original offence was superseded by the logic of escalating action and reaction.
这次暴力行动的导火索是三名以色列青年被杀，他们在西岸的以色列殖民地ayeshiya上学，在放学路上被抓并杀害。内塔尼亚胡认为这是哈马斯集团所为，尽管证据不足，但仍然逮捕了数百名巴勒斯坦人，其中包括近期由美国发起的同阿巴斯和平谈判计划中释放的犯人。一名年轻的巴勒斯坦人被杀害激怒了激进分子，为了报复以色列便向其发射火箭弹。以色列国防军（IDF）则施致命武力还以颜色。短短几天，两军行动不断升级。

Such fragility is a symptom of the influence of extremists on both sides. Some on the Israeli right see a chance to smash Hamas, which has been weakened in Gaza, both by its own incompetence and by Egypt's new government closing the tunnels leading from Sinai into Gaza. But Israeli force is more likely to revive Hamas than break it. The Islamists would once again rally support as the main resistance to the hated occupiers, whilst leaving Mr Abbas looking more like the stooge.
双方激进分子的影响力很大，同时也很脆弱。支持以色列的激进分子看到了粉碎哈马斯的希望，但由于自身无能和埃及新政府关闭了从西奈到加沙的隧道，导致在加沙的粉碎力量被削弱。但是以色列的武力貌似更可能复燃哈马斯，而不是将其粉碎。伊斯兰教徒可能会再次凝聚力量反对侵略者，阿巴斯则沦为配角。

Centrist Israelis would settle for periodic missions designed to tamp down Hamas—“mowing the lawn” they call it. The idea is that the occasional brutal show of force can buy a few more years of normality. Yet doing so is becoming harder. Even if Hamas's rockets remain inaccurate and are rarely lethal, the latest have reached parts of northern Israel 125 kilometres (80 miles) from Gaza. People in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem will, understandably, refuse to live under constant threat. Israel could of course smite its enemies with ever-bloodier fervour. But to the watching world, its overwhelming use of force, which always leaves many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, has often looked excessive—and its international standing, which moderate Israelis care about, tumbles further.
以色列中间派则认为阶段性镇压哈马斯即可，即所谓的“割草行动”。他们认为偶尔派军队进行残酷镇压就可以换取数年的平静生活。然而这种状态也越来越难满足。虽然哈马斯的火箭弹从来不准，也鲜有致命，但是近期这次已经击中离加沙仅125千米（80米）的以色列北部地区。特拉维夫市和耶路撒冷的人们不愿意生活在威胁之下也是情理之中。以色列当然也可以用更加血腥的方式还击。但看看世界就会明白，压倒式军事行动通常只会使巴勒斯坦的死伤比以色列更加惨重；而温和的以色列中间派所重视的国际声望也会越跌越低。

In any case, the status quo on the Palestinian side looks untenable. Mr Abbas is tired and ineffectual. Under him, normality for the West Bank's Palestinians has come to mean accepting Israeli occupation while Israeli settlers gobble up ever more territory. Without even the prospect of statehood, Palestinians are impatient.
无论如何，巴勒斯坦都无法维持现状。阿巴斯疲倦无能。在他的领导下，西岸的巴勒斯坦人要想过上正常生活就得接受被以色列占领，而同时，以色列就会贪婪地占领更多地方。国家地位堪忧，巴勒斯坦人民坐立不安。

For all these reasons, the failure of Mr Netanyahu to make peace a priority is dangerous. He did not make the most of the recent plan put forward by John Kerry, America's secretary of state. Both he and Mr Abbas recklessly pursued short-term advantage during the talks, leaving their countries vulnerable to those who argue that, with the hopes of peace exhausted, conflict is all that remains. That is wrong. Two states, one for Israelis and one for Palestinians, remains by far the greatest hope for peace. The parameters of an agreement are well-rehearsed. What is lacking is the conviction among reasonable people that such a settlement is needed now. Without that belief, Israel's normality will always have an air of unreality.
因此，出于所有这些原因，内塔尼亚胡促和平之举的失败会遭致危险。他并没有充分重视美国国务卿约翰·克里近期提出的计划。谈判时，他和阿巴斯贪图短期利益，欠缺考虑，置国家安危于不顾，一旦和平之梦破碎，冲突将无法避免。他们这种考虑是错误的。虽然两国双方，以色列和巴勒斯坦，都怀着至今为止最大的和平之梦；协议内容也经过精心安排。但是明理人士并不确信他们现在需要这样一份协议。缺少信心，以色列回归常态之梦总显得虚幻。